Atma farm and why it will be nerfed.

[Aegis]

I don't understand. I just don't get it. Why do you assume you have to farm them all in one session? Why is this stigma here? If you can't farm 10hrs a day (I know, probably hyperbole), then farm 15 minutes a day. That's the magic of this content. You can farm for however long you want, at any time.

If I had farmed 15 minutes a day, It would take more than 6 months to get where I am now. And that's still not 12/12.

[Clavaat]

If I had farmed 15 minutes a day, It would take more than 6 months to get where I am now. And that's still not 12/12.

You don't know that.

[Deathscythe343]

You don't know that.

He could. All it would take is an idea of how long it took to get any atmas he currently has. Divide that number into 15min increments, one for each day, and count how many days it would be.

[Clavaat]

He could. All it would take is an idea of how long it took to get any atmas he currently has. Divide that number into 15min increments, one for each day, and count how many days it would be.

But that isn't how drop rates work.

[Deathscythe343]

But that isn't how drop rates work.

I didn't say that it was. I was merely saying that given your suggestion of farming for 15mins a day, and his experience with the system so far, that he could, mathematically say, that to reach the point he is currently at, would have taken 6 months.

Back to your reply, one could, after 6 months of farming, still need be any where closer to collecting all 12 atmas due to how the drop rate with this system works.

[Synapse]

I didn't say that it was. I was merely saying that given your suggestion of farming for 15mins a day, and his experience with the system so far, that he could, mathematically say, that to reach the point he is currently at, would have taken 6 months.

That a bad use of Math, single sample size is like nothing

Using single sample size is like saying anyone can tell their drop rate(which was random) as the actual drop percent. But the fact is, he can get the next Atma on the first FATE kill or not.

[Aegis]

You don't know that.

I don't know that, but I know it's possible. From the people I've spoken to, my drop rate is far from unusual.

It could very well take longer. It's taken me roundabout 45 hours of play to get 10 Atma. That's 4.5 hours each. If I had farmed it in 15 minute sessions with the same drop rate then it would take 18 days per Atma.

There are people in my linkshells/FC with far worse luck than me also.

At 6 mo per weapon, it would take 4.5 years to get all my relics past the Atma stage.

But that isn't how drop rates work.

I'm assuming my drop rate is relatively normal. Certainly, conversations with ls/fc members and people on the forums gives me no reason to belive it's atypical.

Do you have a reason to believe only farming FATEs in short stints gives a better drop rate than marathon sessions?

[Clavaat]

-snip-

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Gambler's_fallacy

Basically, the idea is, it is not based on how many you do, but each on individually. You cannot base it off of time, because that would be a fallacy. 2.5% chance on one FATE is still a 2.5% chance on another. In other words, going by your time will not make sense based on other peoples' time. You each have a 2.5% chance per FATE. To make it simpler, let's say its a 50% drop rate. This does not mean in 2 FATEs, you should or are more likely to get the drop. It is calculated each and every time you enter.

Therefore, farming for 15 minutes (another hyperbole on my part, I apologize), has the same odds as doing it for 5 hours. Your odds don't change based on the amount you do.

[Aegis]

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Gambler's_fallacy

Basically, the idea is, it is not based on how many you do, but each on individually. You cannot base it off of time, because that would be a fallacy. 2.5% chance on one FATE is still a 2.5% chance on another. In other words, going by your time will not make sense based on other peoples' time. You each have a 2.5% chance per FATE. To make it simpler, let's say its a 50% drop rate. This does not mean in 2 FATEs, you should or are more likely to get the drop. It is calculated each and every time you enter.

Therefore, farming for 15 minutes (another hyperbole on my part, I apologize), has the same odds as doing it for 5 hours. Your odds don't change based on the amount you do.

It's not an example of Gambler's Fallacy. If I were saying I've done x amounts of FATEs therefore my chance of getting the Atma on the next one is higher than if I'd only done one, that would be gambler's fallacy. I am extrapolating a likely timeframe from a sample set. That's how statistics work.

Flipping a coin once has a 50/50 chance of not getting a Heads.

Flipping a coin 100 times has a 1.268 to the 28th power of not getting a Heads

The odds of the 100th flip being a heads is still 50/50 but the chance of none of the previous flips returning a Heads is Vanishingly Small. Which is a statistical term for techinically possible but in practice close enough to impossible to not be considered.

You can assume rough timeframes from a known occurrence frequency. The precise occurrence frequency is not known but we do have a rough idea of it from testimonials from players. I know of no-one who got them all in less than 12 hours of play, and I know scores of people doing them.

[Synapse]

If I had farmed 15 minutes a day, It would take more than 6 months to get where I am now. And that's still not 12/12.

You could get a drop in each FATE and be over with 12/12 in 30 mins. Or you can spend 2-3 months collecting. RNG is ok when used properly, but RNG added with a unchallenged grind is worse.