Over 36 RL hours farming my last Atma and counting

[kukurumei]

You're referring to frequentist/empirical probability there. But classical probability states that each individual event has the same chance of occuring, always. Which is what I assume what the system is built upon. Saying that "to get odds in your favor" you need to fail 28 times in a row is stupid, plenty of people have gone WAY over 200 consecutive FATEs without a single atma drop; and please don't tell me that these people have NOT gotten their Atma (with an 8% chance of failure, which is constantly decreasing according to empirical probability) 100 FATEs after the first hundred.

I'm just going assume that the Atma drop works this way: You have a certain chance (say 5%) of getting an Atma after finishing a fate with gold rating. If you got it, then that means that the 5% worked in your favor. If you didn't, then that means that the 95% chance of failure made you not get the drop. Also, previously completed FATEs, with unsuccessful results, DON'T affect in any way your overall chance of getting an Atma drop in the future.

Very unlikely because assuming all atma's are equal and not subject to theories like birthdays. Then you are in fact doing this 12 times( of each set of atma). Statistically, it becomes even more impossible to "get lucky" or get "unlucky". Because you have a better chance at lottery when you combine both types of dice rolls in this case

Many people are using "hours" which is bad because we can only count on fates. There are times it's fast, times it's slow, and times you're not fating at all (or does not meet theoretical requirements, bronze?)

Trying to sound smart is saying " there's always a chance you'll fail at .00001%" is like saying there's a chance that the your dead ancestor will come back and give you a cookie.

People will fall into a statistical average whether they want to or not.

Thus back to old flipping tails 20 times in a row. You can do it if you try really really really really really hard to prove me wrong, but the world doesn't care you tried so hard to prove me wrong. The fact is, the math is math. you know that old bell curve you learned as a child.

The gist here is that not all fates are equal in terms of time. If you get lucky on a really bad area, and really unluck in a really good area, your duration is skewed. Or time of day, or even amount of people.

In the end the only way we can do this is count fates.