Quote Originally Posted by axemtitanium View Post
An 11% success rate means an 89% chance to fail every time. The likelihood of success doesn't change with each consecutive failure. lern2probability.
The chance of him failing on any attempt never changes. The probability of rolling consecutive fail does. You can flip a coin 100 times and still have 50% chance to land on tails but the likelihood you land on tails all 100 times is not 50%, it would be very small. I won't vouch for an exact number though.

Sorry for your bad luck OP, though I would really like to hear someone confirm the number from Astarica