I've been doing some math of sorts. On VG chartz, it said that so far ffxiv had sold around 660k (which i think is pretty impressive) units. now 60k of those units came from 2012, and all of those are most likely bots (i highball the bot accounts to be about 100k). Additional buddy passes would add ~50k to the subscriber potential . Im not sure whether japan is counted on that site for that game. At the very least, at launch month we have guaranteed 400kish people who will try the game out because they already own it. All they need to do is tell the world that the game is available for download for free for those who own ffxiv already, the 'lost-sheep' well be like "fuggit, i'll try it out."

It is kind of crazy how they could turn a bad launch into a good one. It is sort of clear to me now why they seemed almost delusional in their confidence of the game, because if the game is good they already caught 400kish subs. the question is what number of subs is SE aiming for to make this game a 'success.' if its 1/2 mil like ffxi then they're most of the way there already. If they're trying to break the 1mil well, they got some work ahead of them.

In terms of reaction, the only subject that is holding people estranged is the combat. Once SE knocks this aspect out of the park (again), and can somehow show them through trailer form that the game is fun to fight in, then the hype train will start to really roll.