If SE is taking away my hard work...

[viion]

No I just gave you more credit than you deserved in thought you were making an actual prediction rather than stating obvious facts. Summarize something worth "predicting" in 2-3 sentences that will matter come ARR in terms of the economy.

So far all I've heard is "People are going to try to exploit the market early on" (this will definitely happen), "Some items will sell for more than 1/10th of what they are currently valued at" (will also definitely happen minus some form of massive gold deflation). That's about all I feel I've been able to take away from what you've written. You've put down a lot of words and I thought you were going for something bigger than that, but if honestly that's all you were trying to say, then yes I agree, but I feel those points are so obvious that it's "pointless" to even consider them predictions.

Nothing "bigger", those 2 points are my exact argument, with the additional statement of "Many items will never reduce to 1/10th or less". That is what I think.

I seem to write a lot because it seems people are not understand that what you just said, IS what I am predicting, people here also have predictions and reasoning as to why this wont happen and that I am wrong, and that is fine, we can get into a friendly debate about it.

There is nothing more to it.

They are considered predictions because while you say (this will definitely happen) and (will also definitely happen minus some form of massive gold deflation), there are people who are saying this will NOT happen, and items will eventually stabilize to 1/10th (or less). That is their prediction.

[Vindrax]

Nothing "bigger", those 2 points are my exact argument, with the additional statement of "Many items will never reduce to 1/10th or less". That is what I think.

I seem to write a lot because it seems people are not understand that what you just said, IS what I am predicting, people here also have predictions and reasoning as to why this wont happen and that I am wrong, and that is fine, we can get into a friendly debate about it.

There is nothing more to it.

They are considered predictions because while you say (this will definitely happen) and (will also definitely happen minus some form of massive gold deflation), there are people who are saying this will NOT happen, and items will eventually stabilize to 1/10th (or less). That is their prediction.

Actually I didn't see a single post (I could have missed one) that argued against those two points in this entire thread. People are arguing with your concepts of "losing gold" if prices go up with redenomination, and that prices are going to "stabalize" at some point lower than 1.0 prices. Some items are going to have relative value less than they do currently and others are going to be higher. But the redenomination is not the driving force:

Incorrect.

Prices will not balance at 10% exactly, yes, however the reason behind that has little to do with the redenomination, and more to do with the fact that the game will be drastically different - namely crafting/gathering.

Basically what has people so upset over your predictions is that your predictions are extremely obvious to pretty much everyone in this thread (which is why I think there was some confusion), but your basis being the redenomination as the driving force is incorrect.

And all I was trying to say is that until we have more information as to how the game is going to change, investing in items is dangerous because we really do not have the slightest clue as to what is going to be valuable/worthless come ARR. That's my prediction, which is taking your two premise points and actually trying to put something meaningful behind it which is this:

Some people are going to invest (or through sheer luck) stockpile certain items that become tremendously valuable and make out like bandits. Others will try to play the system and invest in items and lose BIG. The most secure way to transfer your funds into ARR will be as gil, because at this point we do not have any additional information that we can draw useful conclusions from.