If SE is taking away my hard work...

[Vindrax]

This is very rude because you in turn could be saying "don't come in, its too risky and u should stay poor". People can choose what they want to do, don't say my opinion is false when I have my arguments as to why your argument is false. But I am not saying its false, I am saying its a possibility, a possibility I dont think will happen but an outcome that can occur.

I have no problem with anyone attempting to take advantage of the newly established market once ARR launches, in fact I encourage it. I do however have an issue with people encouraging others to participate in something very risky without CLEARLY outlining those potential risks. And that's what you are doing, feeding people information with laces of truth, without explaining the downsides. Stating "I believe there is no way this bow will sell for 3 million and anticipate up to a 500% increase in sales come ARR". Do you want me to go find your quote where you are waving your opinion as fact?

This is why I asked you for specifics, for all we know that bow could be worthless in ARR, made completely obsolete by a new and easier recipe. ANYTHING could. Here is the only fact that we know with any relative certainty going into ARR:

Gil will continue as the primary currency in ARR and is THE ABSOLUTE SAFEST BET to protect whatever wealth you have going into ARR.

Note that I'm not saying you are wrong. In fact you are almost assuredly right. Certain items/materials will become extremely valuable in ARR and anyone possessing mass quantities of those items will find themselves richer than they are currently. But until you can start quoting specific posts from dev's about upcoming changes in ARR which can help predict what items are going to gain value, your post is "pointless". Really, what is your argument? "Some items are going to be extremely valuable, you should try to make sure you have them". So I ask "What are these items?" "Where is your evidence as to why they are going to be valuable". Until you can start showing me empirical evidence that suggests otherwise, I would ask that you concede the only thing we know with any relative certainty:

Gil will continue as the primary currency in ARR and is THE ABSOLUTE SAFEST BET to protect whatever wealth you have going into ARR.

If you have information from the devs which indicates which materials and items are going to be valuable in ARR, I'd love for you to share them because that would actually be useful to know.

[viion]

I have no problem with anyone attempting to take advantage of the newly established market once ARR launches, in fact I encourage it. I do however have an issue with people encouraging others to participate in something very risky without CLEARLY outlining those potential risks. And that's what you are doing, feeding people information with laces of truth, without explaining the downsides. Stating "I believe there is no way this bow will sell for 3 million and anticipate up to a 500% increase in sales come ARR". Do you want me to go find your quote where you are waving your opinion as fact?

If people are doing this and not thinking for themselves, that is their problem. I am not going to change who I am or how I speak with the thought that someone thinks I'm Jesus and follows what I do.

Some items are going to be extremely valuable, you should try to make sure you have them

I never once said this, I said that a lot of items will not reduce to 1/10th. I never once told people they should try make sure they go have them, please quote where I said people should go and stock on this because it will not go down, I think you will find that in all my posts, I state predictions of items, I am NOT going to list every item, just pretend I did list every single item in the database, all 7000 of them because this is what I meant.

If you have information from the devs which indicates which materials and items are going to be valuable in ARR, I'd love for you to share them because that would actually be useful to know.

If you have information on all the players in the game that suggests they will not immediately inflate their prices, I'd love for you to share them because that would actually be useful to know. So get cracking and ask everyone, on all servers =)

You ask for evidence yet I have said countless times I am making PREDICTIONS.

You are getting very much denying to listen to me and twist my words into statements of fact solid bets, and this is not the case when every post I state i am making predictions. I can't be bothered to argue with the arrogance.

Since no one knows what will be changed for sure, this is a gamble. While many will be exploiting the new pricing because they bet on the right stuff, many will lose as well because they bet on the wrong things.

This is an opportunity for people who would like to gamble the new economy, I agree. But there is no guarantee. These people can lose a big chunk of their savings as well.

For myself, I will try not to get into this gambling situation so I may not win big, I will not lose big, either. I'll just play the game for what it is (or will be, in ARR).

Show me where I said its a guaranteed, quote me please.

[Vindrax]

You ask for evidence yet I have said countless times I am making PREDICTIONS.

I am saying your "predictions" are pointless. You are saying some items will gain value and you are willing to concede that others will lose value, but you "cannot predict" which is which. I apologize for trying to give you more credit in actually predicting something that matters. I would assume that by stating "A lot of items will not reduce to 1/10th" you would actually be encouraging people to obtain said items, since that would actually make logical sense.

[viion]

I am saying your "predictions" are pointless. You are saying some items will gain value and you are willing to concede that others will lose value, but you "cannot predict" which is which. I apologize for trying to give you more credit in actually predicting something that matters. I would assume that by stating "A lot of items will not reduce to 1/10th" you would actually be encouraging people to obtain said items, since that would actually make logical sense.

Well if you going to call my predictions pointless then we will just end the discussion there. I am not going to try have an adult debate with someone who think it is pointless to predict the future (because no one does that.).

This matters to me, it matters to the OP, it matters to people here, even some against me it matters because they can at least debate, but you're just too arrogant and have to call it pointless, like I am stupid for having an opinion different from you.

So for that, you can keep your opinions on this situation to yourself since you think they are so pointless. (Which is quite sad that you're here on a forum, arguing with me over something you think is pointless, that is a big waste of time for you.)

[Vindrax]

So for that, you can keep your opinions on this situation to yourself since you think they are so pointless. (Which is quite sad that you're here on a forum, arguing with me over something you think is pointless, that is a big waste of time for you.)

No I just gave you more credit than you deserved in thought you were making an actual prediction rather than stating obvious facts. Summarize something worth "predicting" in 2-3 sentences that will matter come ARR in terms of the economy.

So far all I've heard is "People are going to try to exploit the market early on" (this will definitely happen), "Some items will sell for more than 1/10th of what they are currently valued at" (will also definitely happen minus some form of massive gold deflation). That's about all I feel I've been able to take away from what you've written. You've put down a lot of words and I thought you were going for something bigger than that, but if honestly that's all you were trying to say, then yes I agree, but I feel those points are so obvious that it's "pointless" to even consider them predictions.

[viion]

No I just gave you more credit than you deserved in thought you were making an actual prediction rather than stating obvious facts. Summarize something worth "predicting" in 2-3 sentences that will matter come ARR in terms of the economy.

So far all I've heard is "People are going to try to exploit the market early on" (this will definitely happen), "Some items will sell for more than 1/10th of what they are currently valued at" (will also definitely happen minus some form of massive gold deflation). That's about all I feel I've been able to take away from what you've written. You've put down a lot of words and I thought you were going for something bigger than that, but if honestly that's all you were trying to say, then yes I agree, but I feel those points are so obvious that it's "pointless" to even consider them predictions.

Nothing "bigger", those 2 points are my exact argument, with the additional statement of "Many items will never reduce to 1/10th or less". That is what I think.

I seem to write a lot because it seems people are not understand that what you just said, IS what I am predicting, people here also have predictions and reasoning as to why this wont happen and that I am wrong, and that is fine, we can get into a friendly debate about it.

There is nothing more to it.

They are considered predictions because while you say (this will definitely happen) and (will also definitely happen minus some form of massive gold deflation), there are people who are saying this will NOT happen, and items will eventually stabilize to 1/10th (or less). That is their prediction.

[Vindrax]

Nothing "bigger", those 2 points are my exact argument, with the additional statement of "Many items will never reduce to 1/10th or less". That is what I think.

I seem to write a lot because it seems people are not understand that what you just said, IS what I am predicting, people here also have predictions and reasoning as to why this wont happen and that I am wrong, and that is fine, we can get into a friendly debate about it.

There is nothing more to it.

They are considered predictions because while you say (this will definitely happen) and (will also definitely happen minus some form of massive gold deflation), there are people who are saying this will NOT happen, and items will eventually stabilize to 1/10th (or less). That is their prediction.

Actually I didn't see a single post (I could have missed one) that argued against those two points in this entire thread. People are arguing with your concepts of "losing gold" if prices go up with redenomination, and that prices are going to "stabalize" at some point lower than 1.0 prices. Some items are going to have relative value less than they do currently and others are going to be higher. But the redenomination is not the driving force:

Incorrect.

Prices will not balance at 10% exactly, yes, however the reason behind that has little to do with the redenomination, and more to do with the fact that the game will be drastically different - namely crafting/gathering.

Basically what has people so upset over your predictions is that your predictions are extremely obvious to pretty much everyone in this thread (which is why I think there was some confusion), but your basis being the redenomination as the driving force is incorrect.

And all I was trying to say is that until we have more information as to how the game is going to change, investing in items is dangerous because we really do not have the slightest clue as to what is going to be valuable/worthless come ARR. That's my prediction, which is taking your two premise points and actually trying to put something meaningful behind it which is this:

Some people are going to invest (or through sheer luck) stockpile certain items that become tremendously valuable and make out like bandits. Others will try to play the system and invest in items and lose BIG. The most secure way to transfer your funds into ARR will be as gil, because at this point we do not have any additional information that we can draw useful conclusions from.

[VanillaLatte]

Show me where I said its a guaranteed, quote me please.

I didn't go through all of your posts and I never said you guaranteed anything, did I?

I was pointing out there is no guarantees in gambling.

You think Vanya will be worth a lot more than 1/10 of the current pricing because people will likely to buy them for maybe just 6/10 of the current pricing. If it's true it just means Vanya will be in higher demand in ARR (or harder to make or whatever). This has nothing to do with gil redenomination.

You can well stack them right now even if there's no gil redenomination. When ARR comes, they can well be worth 12m instead of the 2m today.

It has everything to do with ARR changes, and nothing to do with the gil redenomination.

[viion]

I didn't go through all of your posts and I never said you guaranteed anything, did I?

I was pointing out there is no guarantees in gambling.

You think Vanya will be worth a lot more than 1/10 of the current pricing because people will likely to buy them for maybe just 6/10 of the current pricing. If it's true it just means Vanya will be in higher demand in ARR (or harder to make or whatever). This has nothing to do with gil redenomination.

You can well stack them right now even if there's no gil redenomination. When ARR comes, they can well be worth 12m instead of the 2m today.

It has everything to do with ARR changes, and nothing to do with the gil redenomination.

Nothing right now will make all items 50% more over night in this economy. The redenomination allows the possibility of this happening. Even if an item is of exactly same in situations of: Still same difficult to obtain, still same stats value, still same demand, still same supply, it can still increase. Absolute zero effects from outside because its still a good piece that is difficult to obtain. But it is now 50% more. Because of an exploitable market window.

No we will never know the cause, so you can base your argument on that. Until we go into 2.0 and go "Ok, did all stats on all items scale relatively in that Vanya stats are as comparable now to all items as it was in 1.0?" and then "Is it still as difficult to obtain, is it the same synthesis process?" "Will those items cost more but still be same difficult to obtain", "Has no other item made it obsolete?" if all true, no other aspects other than redenomination have affected it.

We won't know this until it happens, and you do have a very strong and likely argument that the inflation of an item will not be caused due to this situation but rather than normal demand of an item due to game mechanics in 2.0, I however am suggesting the game mechanics in 2.0 will not change the way Vanya is obtained or its usefulness. I don't know this, I am assuming, its my prediction.

[VanillaLatte]

Nothing right now will make all items 50% more over night in this economy. The redenomination allows the possibility of this happening. Even if an item is of exactly same in situations of: Still same difficult to obtain, still same stats value, still same demand, still same supply, it can still increase. Absolute zero effects from outside because its still a good piece that is difficult to obtain. But it is now 50% more. Because of an exploitable market window.

So I think you're saying if we get a gil cut tomorrow - everyone's gil will be 1/10 of what they have today, Vanya will not go down to 200k and will remain at around 1.2m mark from today's 2m mark.

Then can you answer this question? If 1.2m is good enough even after a 1/10 gil cut across the board, why would people sell it for only 2m today and not 12m instead?

note: This scenario is not saying Vanya will go down to 200k or 1.2m right away. The market settling time frame was omitted for simplicity.