Trends in content types and faux difficulty

[TerahValeth]

I really dont consider it a punishment because I don't punish myself into running something hundreds of times. You know what I did to get my Ifrit weapons? Did Ifrit about 2-5 times a day, depending on how fun the party was. Within 3 days (so 15 runs max) I had the 2 weapons I wanted, an ifrit weapon i didnt want, and a handful of totems. Luck? Absolutely. Was it fun? Absolutely. Punishing? Absolutely not. The fault lies with players approaching luck-based systems the wrong way. By wrong I, of course, mean the most punishing, masochistic, and ineffective way possible...

For starters, let me make it clear that I have no problem w/ the Primals, the drop rate isn't great, but it's decent enough, couple that w/ the "totem system" and you have a formula that at least takes skill into account. My problem lies w/ content like Aurum, Cutters, and the Hamlets (the trend that the game seems to be evolving towards) where the drop rate is so terribly low that skill takes a back seat to factors like "can I run the dungeon 40+ hours a week". Our ls really only has event nights 2-3 times a week, we only do the dungeon 5-6 times in an event day. The problem is that THAT level of devotion to the task at hand DOESN'T increase the odds, and SKILL doesn't increase the odds. What motivation does anyone have to try to be the best they can be at their class/job if you can half-ass it and get lucky in a pickup party? I just want it so luck isn't the ONLY factor (or even the primary factor) I'm not saying it should be eliminated by any means, but it should take a back seat to skill, not the other way around.

Edit: oh yeah, and let's not forget Stronghold bosses, where you get a really low percentage drop rate on the key, which then has (presumably) a 1/8 chance to drop to you, and then you get to bang your head against the RNG for the chest. Let's be generous and say the key drop and chest have a 10% chance each of dropping (assuming anything from chest other than crap), that's 1/10 chance for key, times 1/8 chance you get the key over the other players, and 1/10 that the chest drops the desired item, that gives you a 0.125% chance every time the boss is killed that you'll get the item you're going after (and I'm pretty sure the drop rates are lower than 10%). This is SE being lazy to prolong content, where the content should stand on it's own, it should take a long time to get through the content because it's challenging.

[Jinrya-Geki]

With each update I've become increasingly worried about the direction that FFXIV's content is headed in.

First there was Darkhold: a spamable dungeon with a 100% chance to get loot at the end from each chest. Everyone had full sets of everything from that dungeon within a month easily, then sat around twiddling their thumbs waiting for new content again.

Next there was Ifrit: a spamable fight with instanced chests so everyone got a chance to get an item. Problem is, it's a random item so you might not even be able to use it. It was incredibly frustrating when within our first 10 runs our tank got the staff and I got the sword. We'd love to have traded, but the items drop directly into our inventories so we can't even help our friends. So you have a low chance of getting a drop (let's be generous and say 10%) with a 1/7 (14%) chance on top of that that it's the drop you want. That's a 1.4% chance of getting the item you want. Later on they added Inferno Totems so you could save up for an item you actually wanted or pass the totem to your friend to help them get something they wanted. Good idea, but the problem again is that it's a random chance drop with a lower end drop rate and you need 10 of them.

Next was Moogle, another spamable fight whose loot system was a carbon copy of Ifrit's and has the same problems because of it.

Followed by Aurum Vale and Cutter's Cry: spamable dungeons with abysmally low drop rates. One of the absolute worst types of content in any MMO in my opinion. It's a cheap and lazy way to prolong content and create faux difficulty. The sad part about this is I loved Aurum Vale and liked Cutter's Cry (except for Chimera because of the fact that melee are practically worthless during the fight, but that's a different discussion). The dungeons were cool and had interesting mechanics in them that made them stand out. But then they were ruined by the fact that they were spamable. Darklight has such an abysmally low drop rate that players have to spam the dungeon for a chance at it. This is not fun. This is tedious and burns players out on these dungeons really really quickly.

Next of course came Garuda: Another spamable fight with practically the same loot mechanics as Ifrit and Moogle and has the same problem of the instanced chests dropping items directly to your inventory. But Garuda had one major difference: 100% totem drop rate. This was a step in the right direction. Viable progress every run towards your goal item. I would have preferred if they just had the weapons drop to your loot list so you can pass them, but it was at least something.

Finally we have Hamlet Defense: more spamable content with abysmally low drop rates. The militia gear isn't even all that great for battle classes. There are a few nice pieces, but it's hardly Darklight tier.

Then in 1.22a we got the first part of the AF weapon quests: where you need a key item from your GC that costs 25,000 seals and 3 seals: one from each hamlet defense. When I first heard about this, I was very happy with it. Finally, something that rewarded effort over luck. But alas, it was not so. After buying the GC key item I started doing level 2 Hamlet Defenses and found out to get the seals it was once again spamable content with abysmally low drop rates on top of the fact that chances are you're only going to get one to drop at a time if you do manage to get lucky, and you need one from all 3 hamlets. So once again it's mostly luck based: You have to wait so once every 3 days you can try for a specific hamlet, hope that the server has turned in enough supplies to turn it over to level 2, hope that when you clear that the seal drops from the chest then hope it drops to your inventory or to the inventory of someone who's willing to pass it to you. Then you have to do this 3 times.

And this is what worries me. Every single bit of endgame content we have right now is spamable. Because it's spamable, if they want to make the items you obtain by doing this content be "rare," it must have low drop rates. If it didn't, everyone would have full sets of everything again and there would be no sense of pride for getting gear because it's common. The problem is, this content does not reward skillful play or effort. The content instead rewards people who are lucky. That is it.

I want content that rewards skillful play and effort more than luck. Enough with the spamable content with abysmally low drop rates. Implement 1-3 day lockouts on content and dramatically increase drop rates. For something like Cutter's and Aurum Vale, I would have loved to see it be a 2 day lockout with each chest at the end having about a 35% drop rate on Darklight gear. If you do a 5 chest speed run, you have a pretty high chance of seeing at least one piece which keeps people motivated to keep doing the dungeon. The dungeon doesn't get stale because you're locked out for 2 days so you're not spamming it 8 times a night. The content stays viable for just as long as it is now, it's just much less tedious and frustrating.

The problem with lockouts of course is the fact that once you're waiting on your lockout, you don't have much to do. The thing is though, if everything we had right now had lockouts, there would be plenty to do. Aurum Vale on cooldown? Do Cutter's. That too? Garuda. Moogle. Ifrit. Hamlet Defense, hell, even Darkhold and Toto-rak for seals! If they had lockouts as well then perhaps people would do leves and chocobo escorts more! (I think they need a buff in rewarded seals for sure though, but that's another topic). By the time you finish all of that content, it'll be close to 2 days so you'll be able to start again soon.

So please SE, I'm begging you, move away from the "spamable content + abysmally low drop rate" model for everything. IT IS NOT FUN.

Need to make caster gear/weapons seperated and make them better too. Darklight Gear for mages is terrible. And the Primal weapons. And the new HQ class only stuff, cause it's class only.

[Lux_Rayna]

For starters, let me make it clear that I have no problem w/ the Primals, the drop rate isn't great, but it's decent enough, couple that w/ the "totem system" and you have a formula that at least takes skill into account. My problem lies w/ content like Aurum, Cutters, and the Hamlets (the trend that the game seems to be evolving towards) where the drop rate is so terribly low that skill takes a back seat to factors like "can I run the dungeon 40+ hours a week". Our ls really only has event nights 2-3 times a week, we only do the dungeon 5-6 times in an event day. The problem is that THAT level of devotion to the task at hand DOESN'T increase the odds, and SKILL doesn't increase the odds. What motivation does anyone have to try to be the best they can be at their class/job if you can half-ass it and get lucky in a pickup party? I just want it so luck isn't the ONLY factor (or even the primary factor) I'm not saying it should be eliminated by any means, but it should take a back seat to skill, not the other way around.

Well there should be varied dungeon content. Let me open by saying that much. It really shouldn't all be luck-based, so hopefully they'll add different dungeons with different drop systems. That being said, I find AV/CC fine. Hamlets im not sure about because of all the effort required, but time will tell with that.

The problem is people feel entitled to the best gear possible. At all times. Because they feel entitled, they figure that with enough effort they should be rewarded with it. They dont want to see "the lucky few," they want equality. This gaming philosophy, or psychology if you prefer, pivots around the whole issue of equal rewards for equal effort. Everyone wants to be the best if they try hard enough. This makes me gag, but different strokes for different folks. I get it. Though life doesnt work that way, I imagine ppl play games so they can escape that cruel reality. Either way, this is the way players think. As a result, whenever the next tier gear comes out, everyone feels they have to have it, and should get it. No matter how low the drop rate is, they will spam it 40 hours a week, and kill themselves pursuing crap they have no control over. Idc how many times you run it, it doesn't increase your odds at all. 3% is 3% no matter how you slice it, and more effort doesn't necessarily get you there any faster. It might, but it might not. At the end of the day its smarter to just let luck go where it goes and put all that wasted energy into other endeavors that could help you meet your goal of being the best. There are plenty of options, from melds to primals to even GC gear these days. Even if it *must* be Darklight due to some weird obsession, you don't need a full set within a week. That gear will be some of the best for months. There's no rush, take it slow.

Dungeons dont need to be run 40 hours a week, that may not even help you get it any faster at all. Even if it *did* help you, there's no one to say it would significantly help you. More likely than not, it'll hurt you, because over the long run 97% of your time will be absolutely wasted. Players are just approaching this the wrooooong way. If you come correct, you'll find its really not bad at all. More isn't always better, especially when it comes to crazy low odds. A smart gambling man sets his limits, and stops once he reaches them. He knows that the more he plays the odds, the more he'll lose. The idea is to play them to a certain limit, and then quit. When you get on a hot streak, ride the hot streak, then quit. If you're on a losing streak, ride it to your predefined limit, then quit. Whether you do it 10 times a day, or 3000 times a day, your odds are still the same. No need to kill yourself for some illusion of getting closer to that lucky drop. Every outcome is independent, is completely unaffected by the last outcome (altho streaks make this seem like crap), so take it slow.

Really think about it. If you have a 97% chance to lose would you really wanna try your hand at that 40 hours a week? Hell no. Do a couple runs at a time and hope luck falls your way. Use all your other time to pursue other goals...like HQ's or even double melds/triple melds...which have much higher odds than darklight btw. Don't put the darklight on a pedestal!

[Isaaru]

The issue is the current best items in the game is based on luck. The best items in the game should never be based on luck. Like Fusional said pages ago there is an issue when a hardcore player does hundreds of runs and doesn't get an item and then the casual player does 20 and gets it then there is a massive issue.

Such low percentages are just an awful idea, any percentage drop below 10% is insane to be honest. Like Sol said there needs to be a balance between amount of times able to complete a dungeons and the drop rate. The difference between this game and FFXI is that FFXI had 18 people in a party and the time restrictions made it so getting items took forever. In FFXIV with only 8 people in a party you can use the same restrictions and gear up everyone completely in less than half the time it would have taken in FFXI.

The thing is nobody wants to fight the same thing hundreds of times just to not get the drop they want. It's not fun, and it makes the originally fun content boring due to excessive repetition. To be honest they should just tokenize all of their content if they really want this ridiculously low drop rate.

@Lux: You do not understand statistics through repetition.

[carraway]

3% is 3% no matter how you slice it, and more effort doesn't necessarily get you there any faster. It might, but it might not.

If I want to see heads on a coinflip 5 times, I must flip the coin a minimum of 5 times. The more I flip the coin, the more chances I have at seeing heads, bringing me closer to my goal of 5. Your core understanding of probability is inherently flawed, which undermines your argument.

The thing is nobody wants to fight the same thing hundreds of times just to not get the drop they want. It's not fun, and it makes the originally fun content boring due to excessive repetition. To be honest they should just tokenize all of their content if they really want this ridiculously low drop rate.

Exactly. Whether you stretch these hundreds of repetitions out over a two-month period or a two-year period, it's still not fun.

The Garuda reward system is as close to perfect as anything the FFXIV dev team has managed thus far. Guaranteed drops leading to a minimum amount of runs to finish X weapons, alongside an element of chance to speed the process, makes every run feel rewarding. The exact number of runs required for a drop is something that can be tuned to be appropriate for the given content.

I still enjoy running AV/CC just because I'm probably a masochist, but the drop system actively punishes players unilaterally, whether they run it once a week or fifty times a week. In fact, the more casual player is the one who has the most to lose, because he or she is more likely to party with a pick-up group. That abysmal drop rate is then exacerbated by the 1/8 chance of it dropping into that player's loot list.

[Hippo]

i think SE designed the content this way is to satisfy both casual and hardcore players. I don't think content like Absolute Virtue in FFXI will appear again in FFXIV

[Isaaru]

i think SE designed the content this way is to satisfy both casual and hardcore players. I don't think content like Absolute Virtue in FFXI will appear again in FFXIV

The thing is the current content only satisfies a small number of players due to their luck.

[TerahValeth]

Really think about it. If you have a 97% chance to lose would you really wanna try your hand at that 40 hours a week? Hell no. Do a couple runs at a time and hope luck falls your way. Use all your other time to pursue other goals...like HQ's or even double melds/triple melds...which have much higher odds than darklight btw. Don't put the darklight on a pedestal!

As a main Black Mage, the Darklight is worthless for me as it is (so I'm by no means putting on a pedestal). The best gear for me is double/triple melded gear (purely luck-based endeavors) so my alternative is bang my head (and blow my gil) against that RNG.

That aside, why even try something if you only have a 1% chance at succeeding? I wouldn't put money down at the black jack table w/ those odds, so why would I want to spend 30 mins of my time fighting the same odds. Also, I specifically said NOT to take RNG out of the game, but just to weigh skill higher than luck. I'm not impressed when I see someone in hard to obtain gear, because I know they just got lucky. By the same token, how can I feel a sense of accomplishment for obtaining something when it really just boils down to luck? Where is the value in doing anything in life w/out the incentive to do it well? I also never said to make ANYTHING 100% drop rate, but since we're not in a casino, yes I believe skill should increase the odds.

[Lux_Rayna]

@Lux: You do not understand statistics through repetition.

I do in fact. Your odds are always a given percentage regardless of how many times you do it. Statistically, the probability of every outcome is independent of all the other outcomes. Proof is in the fact that I have more ifrit weapons than people who have spammed it hundreds of times over a certain period of time. I got more in 3 days than some ppl saw in a week of non-stop spamming. Did I nonstop spam at all? No. This is what I mean when I say spamming something doesn't necessarily increase your chances in any noticeable fashion. Its all freakin luck. Heck my friend got 3 weapons over 4 runs in one day. I mean cmon. Anyone who honestly believes spamming low-odds games helps them in any way is deluded. For every extra run you squeeze in a given day you have 97% chance of wasting your time and getting 0. That is not a odds game you want to rack up lots of attempts on because the odds are *heavily* stacked against you.

Its not like I'm saying don't consistently play the game. Consistently play the game, but within limits that don't hurt you or waste too much time. You have to be willing to take a loss, but dont sacrifice 40 hours out of every week on a low odds game like that. That's just stupid, and will hurt you a lot more than itll help you. Its because I understand this, which you claim I don't, that I can play happily without bitching/moaning/crying over low drop rates...and still get stuff I want! If you think I don't understand something, the proof is in the results. Seriously if you flip a coin 100 times today, and 2 times another day, on both days your chances of seeing tails are 50%. It neeeeever changes. Are you more likely to see that 50% prove true through 100 repetitions? Suuuure. Are you more likely to see tails through 100 repetitions. Nope. Either way there's a 50% chance of flippin dat tails. That's just the ugly truth of it. The odds don't change no matter what the hell you do. The only thing affected by repetition is your results. The more you do, the more your win/loss record will change, and the more a given probability will prove true. So let me ask you...do you really want to prove a low-odds game true? I, for one, do not. I definitely want my win-loss record to reflect more than 3%. Jus sayin. That being the case, repetition is your enemy. Period. 97% of it is wasted effort. The smart thing to do in that case is to spread the attempts out so the losses don't burn you out. 100 attempts today, 10 attempts tomorrow, either way there's a 3% chance of gettin what you want that day.

So whats more of a loss? 97% of 10 hours, or 97% of 2 hours? Gotta play it smart.

[Isaaru]

Lux... no.

This is how it works without a wall of text. The chance of failing all 100 times with a 97% failure rate is 0.97^100. This is equivalent to 0.0476 or 4.76% chance. The chance of failing 10 times with the same rate of failure is 0.97^10 which equals 0.7374 or 73.74%. You have a lower chance of failure with more repetitions.

Yes in the end everyone will have the same rate of drop after massive amounts of runs, but you will not gain more equipment per day only running 10 times than a person who will run 100 times. It's the same proportional loss no matter what. You succeed 3% of the time and lose 97%.