Calculating the Wait FanFest/Patches -- Next Expansion in 2027?

[YumieYumiki]

I don't know, it seems absurd to me to that the development schedule would be so closely linked with the PR/Marketing schedule that the delays between marketing events and patch/expansion releases would be always perfectly constant

[Daralii]

Im thinking January or Feb of 2027. The latest being March. Really depends on media tour dates.

That timeframe is iffy because of corporate bullshit. The next part of the VII remake sequel series in slated for next year, and those have historically been releasing around VII's birthday in January/February. It's entirely possible that the powers that be will think it and Octopath 0 will be sufficient to carry Q4 of Japan's fiscal year and will try to use the next XIV expansion to pad Q1.

[TDawnstar]

Middle of December 2026, just like patch 7.4. Why? They need to get the game out in 2026 to save as many players as possible and to bolster their 2026 financials with preorders. It will be out in 26 due to financials, calling it now.

Square Enix's financial year ends on March 31st, not December 31st. So technically, they could still release in Q1 2027 and get the revenue on that FY.

[Shialan]

The only way a release in late December / early 2027 could work is if the next expansion is on the same hype level as Endwalker.

Also, it has to finally bring tons of QoL updates. In every area.

If it's another Stormblood / Dawntrail, it will keep bleeding players.

[FeyFavilla]

Another full year of DT is worrying. I think that might be it for me, housing be damned. With very little to justify the monthly expenses and no guarantee that things will get better single-player games might just be the better investment. That or I guess checking up on what WoW has been up to since Shadowlands.

It sucks because I also know developing an expansion takes a ton of time and I would not want a rushed 8.0 to be dumped on us just to get player numbers briefly up again.

[Jeeqbit]

You're right that it will have to be in 2027. JP Fanfest is at the end of the year (delayed by 2 months for some reason). They will not do this fanfest after 8.0 releases because the entire point of it is to reveal information about 8.0.

After the JP fanfest, we get a live letter and the job actions trailer.

We also get a media tour, which takes some weeks while they travel around the world hosting media events.

All that is unlikely to happen literally on Christmas, so it will likely have to be delayed into early 2027.

If it's in early 2027, why not delay it until their favorite release period of June/July/August, the month most expansions have released?

[Khryseis_Astra]

If it's in early 2027, why not delay it until their favorite release period of June/July/August, the month most expansions have released?

Because that’s a whole year without content, and I’d like to think they realize how bad that would be for a game that operates on a monthly subscription in general, let alone in light of Dawntrail’s lackluster reception.

I’m going to hope that his comment that it “won’t be long to wait” after JP Fanfest means late December/early January. That still gives them all of November and most of December for the media tour.

[Jeeqbit]

Because that’s a whole year without content

I agree, but they did it with Dawntrail. Instead of the standard 5 months between .5 and expansion release, we had something like 9 months to wait for Dawntrail, just a little longer than Endwalker which was understandably delayed due to the effects of Covid. They've done this twice now, so instead of the wait being 9 months why not a whole 14 months at that point?

I hope they don't do that but they seem to really like June-August as a release period. If they simply replicate the 9 months again it should be around February 2027.

[Hyperia]

I hope they don't do that but they seem to really like June-August as a release period. If they simply replicate the 9 months again it should be around February 2027.

This game is in nothing short of a population crisis, any substantial delay into the June/July 2027 time frame would be disastrous, if not catastrophic for the population. No new content for 14-15 months? Not even WoW was that bold. We are already at numbers lower than Shadow Bringers, the lowest population in 6 years, the devs know this. They are scrambling to do anything to keep players around to make it to 8.0, just look at unrestricted glamour, that’s not patch content, that’s main expansion content but it’s happening now.

I have been subbed continuously since the start of ARR, I have a medium house in a wonderful spot. It if they said no new content until June/July of 2027, that’s it, game over, I’ll unsubscribe and find another game. I love this game and I am praying that they can fix things, 8.0 is make or break time, just as much as 2.0 was on launch.

If they botch 8.0 then SE will be in serious financial trouble. 2.0 saved XIV and really the company, if they blow it in 8.0, we’ll, time to sell SE shares as it’s going to get bad. They don’t have any other other major title they can bring out as they already used FFVII already to bolster their funds.

[ForteNightshade]

Yoshi P said vaguely that after JP Fanfest, the wait would not be as long as people expect. Also, Shadowbringers had a very short period between final fanfest and release. So, six months isn't a guaranteed wait between JP Fanfest and 8.0

Yoshida is notorious for overexaggerating. Without any real context, "not a long wait" would still be accurate if 8.0 dropped in March or April since that's still less than the six month delay between Endwalker's final patch and Dawntrail.

With that said, I suspect it'll be near the end of January to early February as their target.