Calculating the Wait FanFest/Patches -- Next Expansion in 2027?

[Veritas-Ancora]

Hey, now that the devs are almost finished with Duty Support system updates, I would start requesting them to truncate some of the DT quests in the same way that ARR was. Make it a SHORTER series, without losing the core of it, so that those that do enjoy DT can still do so, but newer players and those replaying don't have the same slog.

I still think having an alternate L91 to L100 EXPANSION is the only way to salvage it. Just burn it all.

[Striker44]

I wish it didn't have to take 50% of the active players to quit the game to get their attention.

Everybody in my family has quit the game with little prospects of returning and my FC is nearly dead, and it was thriving all the through Endwalker but it started to die in the patches and DT finished it off.

Over 50% of the active players "quit" every single expansion. Using Steam data as one example, Stormblood went from a high of 12,000 to a low of of 5,400 just six months later. Shadowbringers (widely considered the *best* expansion) went from a high of 23,000 to a low of 9,700 just three months later - and who knows how low it would have gone if Covid didn't happen soon thereafter and people came back at a time they usually wouldn't because everyone was stuck at home. Endwalker went from a high of 54,000 to a low of 17,000 just three months later as well. Dawntrail has gone from a high of 42,000 to a low of 14,000 (which it took over a year to reach). EW actually "lost" a greater % of its playerbase than DT has, though it's close. Point being, despite the ever-present tendency of this forum to scream doom, what SE is seeing is actually very normal, especially considering the game will naturally experience a population drop with its main storyline finished.

I've noticed a few posts from you as well that base your view on what you see in your own family and FC. Trying to extrapolate that to the enormous playerbase is a statistical train wreck, just like it would for me on the opposite end relying solely on what my own circle is experiencing (mainly because we tend to surround ourselves with similarly-minded people).

The game is dying

No it's not. Not even close. Whether you like it or not, this game will be going with a sufficient population and regular new content for at least another decade.

Everyone just left… FCs, friend lists, linkshells. Everything is empty. Literally everyone’s gone.

Nope. The people *you* know, who you likely associated with in the first place because you have similar mindsets, have chosen to move on. Meanwhile, the circle I'm in (which likewise has similar mindsets to me) is still hopping.

[FeyFavilla]

Over 50% of the active players "quit" every single expansion. (...)
Nope. The people *you* know, who you likely associated with in the first place because you have similar mindsets, have chosen to move on. Meanwhile, the circle I'm in (which likewise has similar mindsets to me) is still hopping.

Listen, I believe that this is your experience, but sticking your head in the sand and pretending the world is not extremely empty atm outside of the few hours of main traffic is not going to help. The general mood towards DT is rotten and while it is normal in any MMO for players to leave after launch many did leave this time for different reasons. The disfavor they garnered in the playerbase was significant and even just a whiff of 'this MMO is dying' will cause people to jump ship alongside others to move on to greener pastures. Most won't want to invest in something that might not be there a few years down the line.

This denial and trying to shut down people sharing how chunks of their social circle are leaving or gone already will only do one thing - make people shut up and leave silently instead of trying to fight to make things better. You do not need to run defense for SE. They are not a small indie company, they can do their own PR. We know the game is not dead yet, but as I seem to have to be a broken record, feedback is important. They need to know that their customers are upset so they can make changes in order to stop that.

[Kunzite_Lockhart]

Nope. The people *you* know, who you likely associated with in the first place because you have similar mindsets, have chosen to move on. Meanwhile, the circle I'm in (which likewise has similar mindsets to me) is still hopping.

Going by your own logic, you’re basically saying your own circle = the current state of the whole game. Your circle’s fine? Cool story, I guess.
Kinda funny, considering you’re speaking as someone on Gilgamesh — one of the most populated, hardcore raid servers in the entire game.
Try DC travel to EU and see the ‘doom’ for yourself.
I get that for some people this game is their whole life and they’ll cope as hard as they can to defend it, but posts like yours are just peak coping

[Striker44]

Listen, I believe that this is your experience, but sticking your head in the sand and pretending the world is not extremely empty atm outside of the few hours of main traffic is not going to help. The general mood towards DT is rotten and while it is normal in any MMO for players to leave after launch many did leave this time for different reasons. The disfavor they garnered in the playerbase was significant and even just a whiff of 'this MMO is dying' will cause people to jump ship alongside others to move on to greener pastures. Most won't want to invest in something that might not be there a few years down the line.

If "this MMo is dying" caused people to jump ship, the game would have never launched, because that pathetic dooming has existed since the game started. It happens every single expansion. The "mood" towards DT feels worse because there's a particular section of the gaming population that it was definitely not designed for, and that segment is both more vocal and feels empowered in current society to tear things down. But being more vocal doesn't make you more numerous. It's why - as I pointed out - the *actual* population dip is nothing out of the ordinary - it just feels worse because the level of vitriol from a certain group is more pronounced.

Also, I don't always play at peak hours. Yet, regardless of when I do, queues tend to be fast, hunt trains stay populated, even when I do very specific random duties for WT, I get in quickly. Traffic exists well beyond just a few hours a day.

You do not need to run defense for SE.

I'm not - just pointing out facts that are "inconvenient" for the bitter and the doomers.

Going by your own logic, you’re basically saying your own circle = the current state of the whole game. Your circle’s fine? Cool story, I guess.

I just wish if you were going to quote my post, you'd actually read it. I pointed out exactly that flaw in the logic that would apply both ways, which is why I'm relying on much larger data comparisons rather than just our own little anecdotal evidence...

Kinda funny, considering you’re speaking as someone on Gilgamesh — one of the most populated, hardcore raid servers in the entire game.

I don't raid for the record. But yes, imagine joined a populated server and there being a lot of people! WoW currently has a couple million active players, but there are plentiful "dead" servers there as well that if I made a character on, I'd see nobody. Does that mean the game is dead? No - I just went to a dead zone within an otherwise populated universe. Same deal here.

I get that for some people this game is their whole life and they’ll cope as hard as they can to defend it, but posts like yours are just peak coping

Why is it that a certain segment of the population that hears a word and then thinks it sounds cool to keep using it even when it makes absolutely zero sense and has no real relation to its actual meaning?

If you want to talk actual coping - here's the reality: This game isn't going anywhere in the next decade. The only thing that would lead to SE to stop development anytime in the foreseeable future would be if they decided to make a new MMO, and given that we're well past the golden age of MMO's, the cost to make one compared to the potential return just isn't worth it anymore, so that's not going to happen. "Coping" would be thinking the game is going to collapse if people don't listen to *my* suggestions and do exactly what *I* want.

[FeyFavilla]

If "this MMo is dying" caused people to jump ship, the game would have never launched, because that pathetic dooming has existed since the game started. It happens every single expansion. The "mood" towards DT feels worse because there's a particular section of the gaming population that it was definitely not designed for, and that segment is both more vocal and feels empowered in current society to tear things down. But being more vocal doesn't make you more numerous. It's why - as I pointed out - the *actual* population dip is nothing out of the ordinary - it just feels worse because the level of vitriol from a certain group is more pronounced.

I am not seeing vitriol. Sure there's always angry people who just like to shit-stir but if you took the time to read through the recent threads - maybe you did? - you will find a lot of people lamenting that it is a shame that something that they have loved for so long is being in one way or another either neglected, for example the storytelling when it came to the MSQ, or fundamentally altered, like the continuing change to the combat system both for encounters and classes. Those are older players who feel like something they loved for years is changing in a way that makes it no longer enjoyable. There might be some strong language used, but that is understandable if something you spent hundreds of hours on now starts tasting sour and stale.

What you are doing right now is just going to make people leave silently. This kind of discourse is important for the health of the game. If everyone shut up and kept their head down it would die in a few years. But I highly doubt any of this will resonate with you, sadly.

I hope, for all our sake, that they do listen to the pain people are expressing and take it to heart to hopefully make 8.0 another Shadowbringers.

[Khryseis_Astra]

I don't raid for the record. But yes, imagine joined a populated server and there being a lot of people! WoW currently has a couple million active players, but there are plentiful "dead" servers there as well that if I made a character on, I'd see nobody. Does that mean the game is dead? No - I just went to a dead zone within an otherwise populated universe. Same deal here.

The “dead zone within an otherwise populated universe” they were referring to was the entire EU region… If an entire region was booming and now it’s not, that’s a problem. It’s not like they picked a low pop world or DC and are surprised it’s a ghost town.

I’m not a Dawntrail hater, but I definitely had some criticisms of it, and I’m someone who logs in every day. I’m also on a high pop DC/server (Crystal-Bryn). I’ve definitely noticed a lengthy wait time for queues. I usually play DPS, but I never actually had a problem getting things to pop before. Especially during Moogle tomes season… a fair number of MSQ trials are on the list this time and I’ve waited over 20 minutes for most of them. If I’m waiting, so are the first-timers and that could be off putting to them. Even one of the newer DT trials (Sphene) takes forever to pop, and I’m getting about 2-4 first-timers in each run.

It’s disingenuous to say there’s not a problem because it’s fine where you’re at, when many people are noticing the effects. I’ve been here since Stormblood, so I’m used to the ebb and flow of people coming back for patches and leaving again. This feels different and I can see why some people would be worried.

Do I think the game is dying? No. But I do think there is a large chunk of dissatisfied players right now, and they should be mindful of that. I’m glad that it seems like they’re taking note of some of the complaints and criticisms, as well as working on some of the wish list items players have been wanting for years. Overall, I think they need to take a look at how to spread out their content over the course of an expansion so that all types of players feel like they have something to do at any given time, especially with the longer patch cycles. And the story needs to start moving towards something epic.

[RedLolly]

Anecdotally, I've noticed a sudden rise of newer players. Most of the activity in my (massive) free company is of new players catching up. Went from helping one in late ARR to helping another in SHB the same day.

Then Lucky Bancho's latest census confirmed it. FFXIV has had a sudden rise in newer players. Seems the game is doing fine, but early DT is quickly turning into the same pain point filter that ARR's patch content remains to be. And right now there isn't the quality content behind it for those players to work towards. That section in ARR sets up events to kept paying off until Endwalker.

That's actually why I think we should ask the devs to rework much of it instead of "deleting" it all. Dawntrail is supposed to start the next arc so we just don't get it yet aside from it just not being a fun romp in isolation.


Meanwhile, the Arcadian has, GENUINELY, been something I've enjoyed all the way through, so the finale looking to give me more of the stuff I've enjoyed absolutely has me excited for 7.4.

[Raim]

Its most likely going to be Nov/Dec, almost immediately after the Fanfest. It lines up with the typical time between .5 patches and expansions, but NOT with the fanfests. The fanfests for this expansion were definitely delayed but that doesn't necessarily mean the expansion itself is.

[Veritas-Ancora]

Its most likely going to be Nov/Dec, almost immediately after the Fanfest. It lines up with the typical time between .5 patches and expansions, but NOT with the fanfests. The fanfests for this expansion were definitely delayed but that doesn't necessarily mean the expansion itself is.

I think November is hoping for too much. But then again a December release would be awful with the holidays.