Full Darklight Set

[Rydin]

Oh...so that's why my Standard Synths fail 3 times in a row after using Makers Muse...

Jokes aside, you are correct in your explanation of the RNG. But the specifics of the formulas are different depending on the activity (crafting vs mob drops) and up until now the only thing i have said is that *maybe* darklight drops *could* be affected by an additional performance factor including but not limited to time.

It i's a theory, simply put, that acknowledges that the drop rate could be affected by additional performance factors. And it is a valid one at that, as hard as it may seem to prove.

Honestly, it's a running joke in my ls, and all I want to see are some numbers from the players that spend way more time than I can farming this gear. I have seen various percentages from various players such as yourself ranging from 10% to 1.57%.

That being said, I have yet to see some spreadsheet data myself. Nor could I verify the truth of such contents other than by repeating the experiment myself. This is the scientific process that us old time FFXI crafters have applied over years time so as to increase our HQ % rate sometimes fruitful and other times mystical...

Thanks.

With smaller data sets... the numbers will be more erratic...
You could go in 10 times and get 1 darklight piece every run and assume the number is 20%
But on a long enough timeline... with enough data points... the actual drop rate would be more consistent across all linkshells.....

Like if everyone tested it over 5,000 runs... I am sure the numbers would be a lot closer to each other

With that being said... in the absence of proof that there are any other factors.. and no one willing to test if there are... We must assume there are not

Perfect runs don't increase your drop rate directly...
But they do increase your speed times, which means more runs in a given amount of time....
Shaving 3 minutes off each run could allow for an extra run at the end of the nite before people have to go...

It's like Pixie hate, the direction you face, the moon phase

People love to believe in myths

[Matsume]

With smaller data sets... the numbers will be more erratic...
You could go in 10 times and get 1 darklight piece every run and assume the number is 20%
But on a long enough timeline... with enough data points... the actual drop rate would be more consistent across all linkshells.....

Like if everyone tested it over 5,000 runs... I am sure the numbers would be a lot closer to each other

With that being said... in the absence of proof that there are any other factors.. and no one willing to test if there are... We must assume there are not

Perfect runs don't increase your drop rate directly...
But they do increase your speed times, which means more runs in a given amount of time....
Shaving 3 minutes off each run could allow for an extra run at the end of the nite before people have to go...

It's like Pixie hate, the direction you face, the moon phase

People love to believe in myths

Of course, this was the point of my earlier reference to what the XI crafters called "the law of the averages". Only over a long enough period of time and trials will the truth reveal itself. We might as well assume that everyone here who hasn't done over 5000 runs has a set of data skewed over or under the actual % drop rate which would in effect make any discussion or speculation about it useless.

On the other hand, I like how in a round about way you prove that avoiding deaths could in the long run increase your drops over time and thus drop rate over time...

As for mythology, one must admit that a certain amount o f truth is hidden at the root of all myths. For example: the greek and roman pantheistic deities who were represented by the elements were an acknowledgement of veritable natural phenomenon such as lightning and earthquakes which these ancient civilizations had not the capacity to explain scientifically.

[Rydin]

Of course, this was the point of my earlier reference to what the XI crafters called "the law of the averages". Only over a long enough period of time and trials will the truth reveal itself. We might as well assume that everyone here who hasn't done over 5000 runs has a set of data skewed over or under the actual % drop rate which would in effect make any discussion or speculation about it useless.

On the other hand, I like how in a round about way you prove that avoiding deaths could in the long run increase your drops over time and thus drop rate over time...

As for mythology, one must admit that a certain amount o f truth is hidden at the root of all myths. For example: the greek and roman pantheistic deities who were represented by the elements were an acknowledgement of veritable natural phenomenon such as lightning and earthquakes which these ancient civilizations had not the capacity to explain scientifically.

Agreed.... It's funny too, one of my friends in LS will rage anytime someone mentions pixie hate

[Madruk]

I don't think any of us really care. We all know the drop rates are abysmal. I seriously doubt "performance" means jack shit. Maybe when things settle down people will care more about detailed spreadsheets and the like, but with the game changing every other month, it's pretty pointless right now.

Of course I'll try hopping on one foot facing west on a full moon while doing the dungeon in under 16 minutes to test this theory of increasing drop rates.

[Penguin]

It i's a theory, simply put, that acknowledges that the drop rate could be affected by additional performance factors. And it is a valid one at that, as hard as it may seem to prove.

We finish our normal runs in 17-19 minutes so with 40+ minutes on the timer every single time, pretty much always with 0 deaths (people make mistakes sometimes it happens) and we have averaged a 2.5-2.6% drop rate.

Others are claiming a 5%-10% drop rate.

Are they clearing it faster than us? because if not your theory already doesn't hold water.

If anything it seems like the slower you clear and the more mistakes you make the more DL you get because the only times we have ever gotten double DL were on runs where we wiped once, pretty sure our first double DL was actually on a run where we wiped on mistress and didn't even get the speed run chest.

[Sigmakan]

The most likely explanation - people exaggerate both ways. People looking for sympathy will exaggerate so their drop% is lower. People looking to brag/boast exaggerate so their drop% is higher.

Peng, out of curiosity, the drop % you've listed. Is that counting all final chests? From what we've seen, and maybe its just terrible luck, we've never seen darklight come from the far left chest in either raid. Counting that chest may skew things if in fact it doesnt drop darklight.

Counting all 5 chests, our LS is at 2.11% drop rate (0.99% in Cutters, 3.85% in AV). So our overall drop rate seems fairly close to yours

[Rydin]

The most likely explanation - people exaggerate both ways. People looking for sympathy will exaggerate so their drop% is lower. People looking to brag/boast exaggerate so their drop% is higher.

Peng, out of curiosity, the drop % you've listed. Is that counting all final chests? From what we've seen, and maybe its just terrible luck, we've never seen darklight come from the far left chest in either raid. Counting that chest may skew things if in fact it doesnt drop darklight.

Counting all 5 chests, our LS is at 2.11% drop rate (0.99% in Cutters, 3.85% in AV). So our overall drop rate seems fairly close to yours

Ideally I'd think people want to know the drop rate of each individual chest... and if the chest has multiple darklight, the chance of each particular item

[Matsume]

We finish our normal runs in 17-19 minutes so with 40+ minutes on the timer every single time, pretty much always with 0 deaths (people make mistakes sometimes it happens) and we have averaged a 2.5-2.6% drop rate.

Others are claiming a 5%-10% drop rate.

Are they clearing it faster than us? because if not your theory already doesn't hold water.

If anything it seems like the slower you clear and the more mistakes you make the more DL you get because the only times we have ever gotten double DL were on runs where we wiped once, pretty sure our first double DL was actually on a run where we wiped on mistress and didn't even get the speed run chest.

I must admit right off the bad if you clear in under 40 mins you're doing a damn good job and I speak from experience.

As for my theory it was jokingly directed at deaths as being a factor in the same sense that speed runs are. That being said it is fact that if you do the run in under 25 minutes you get the speed run and spawn extra chests. It is ALSO a fact that some of these and other chests in the dungeon will only appear after killing a specific number or set of mobs in each room.

Both of these are performance factors that must be executed in order to make appear the extra chests that supposedly drop this mythical Darklight gear. My theory is more of an acknowledgement that there may be other hidden performance factors that we are not yet aware of that may or may not trigger an increase in the drop rate of a specific darklight piece.

It could be that a non requisite monster near by a group of requisite monsters (toad next to lilies) is a secondary trigger that allows for the drop of a specific piece from a specific chest. In other words what if there is a set of mobs and timing that are required to spawn the additional chest and a whole other set to force darklight out of these chests?

That's about as far fetched as it gets, but entirely possible.

The most likely explanation - people exaggerate both ways. People looking for sympathy will exaggerate so their drop% is lower. People looking to brag/boast exaggerate so their drop% is higher.

Peng, out of curiosity, the drop % you've listed. Is that counting all final chests? From what we've seen, and maybe its just terrible luck, we've never seen darklight come from the far left chest in either raid. Counting that chest may skew things if in fact it doesnt drop darklight.

Counting all 5 chests, our LS is at 2.11% drop rate (0.99% in Cutters, 3.85% in AV). So our overall drop rate seems fairly close to yours

Which brings me to my next point: has it been established which pieces drop from which chests? I would be surprised to see any spreadsheet that has logged the exact time, number of deaths, items, and items from which chest for each run...

For all we know that chest doesn't even drop a darklight piece...

Ideally I'd think people want to know the drop rate of each individual chest... and if the chest has multiple darklight, the chance of each particular item

[Theplatter]

Ugh, 11 pages and only 4 images of full sets....

[Penguin]

The most likely explanation - people exaggerate both ways. People looking for sympathy will exaggerate so their drop% is lower. People looking to brag/boast exaggerate so their drop% is higher.

Peng, out of curiosity, the drop % you've listed. Is that counting all final chests? From what we've seen, and maybe its just terrible luck, we've never seen darklight come from the far left chest in either raid. Counting that chest may skew things if in fact it doesnt drop darklight.

Counting all 5 chests, our LS is at 2.11% drop rate (0.99% in Cutters, 3.85% in AV). So our overall drop rate seems fairly close to yours

That is counting all final chests yes.

And pretty sure we have had every chest drop an item in AV atleast, i think the only DL we have never gotten is Darklight Gauntlets but thats mainly because we rarely do CC anymore.

Its kinda hard to tell with how fast the chests are opened at times.