Melding success rate

[WinterSkyblue]

When melding multiple materia into same gears, system will give a success rate.

Don't know how many people has experience like me.....but i really double on the success rate. I've never have actual success rate higher than system provided, but usually got actual success rate lower than told.

I've just do melding, system show success rate between 25% - 30%, but got continuous failed for 10 attempts! The possibility to continuous fail is less than 1% but I am experienced not only once!

For the achievement to meld 5 materia into 1 gear, i actually meld 500+ gears and use up 1000+ materia. I can told that the success rate provided from FFXIV is a shXX!

Would SE do sometime on the success rate? What I means is that, If you said it is 20% success, than I expect that I will got at least 15 success from 100 attempts. I think it should be reasonable expectation?

[Asiaine]

Perhaps 20% success does not mean you have a 20% chance of success ^.^:
Perhaps it really means 20% success is 20% of the maximum success rate that you can have.

If the maximum success rate (hidden value) is 80%, and you have 20% success rate, then you really have a 16% success.
If you have a 100% success rate, then you really have a 80% success rate.

Of course, I could be wrong, but it would be interesting to note if anyone had a 100% success rate and fail.

[Scarface]

Perhaps 20% success does not mean you have a 20% chance of success ^.^:
Perhaps it really means 20% success is 20% of the maximum success rate that you can have.

If the maximum success rate (hidden value) is 80%, and you have 20% success rate, then you really have a 16% success.
If you have a 100% success rate, then you really have a 80% success rate.


Of course, I could be wrong, but it would be interesting to note if anyone had a 100% success rate and fail.

Good theory, however I'd like to attribute OPs case to bad luck :x

FYI: I went 1/17 on gamblers crown. LS mates of mine went like 1/50, and 1/150+

[WinterSkyblue]

Perhaps 20% success does not mean you have a 20% chance of success ^.^:
Perhaps it really means 20% success is 20% of the maximum success rate that you can have.

If the maximum success rate (hidden value) is 80%, and you have 20% success rate, then you really have a 16% success.
If you have a 100% success rate, then you really have a 80% success rate.

Of course, I could be wrong, but it would be interesting to note if anyone had a 100% success rate and fail.

If your guest is correct, then it is no point to give us the success rate because we don't know the "hidden value".
It is same that someone tell you: You will be success in 12 x (unknow) %
Any different from not telling any rate? I don't want to thing that SE was paid to do meaningless things....

[Shyd]

According to my friend, getting drunk as a skunk increases chance of success by 84.55928298310293281niner88201-alpha%

[WinterSkyblue]

Good theory, however I'd like to attribute OPs case to bad luck :x

FYI: I went 1/17 on gamblers crown. LS mates of mine went like 1/50, and 1/150+

>_<
Yes, bad luck gay like me never success in simple attempt. After 100+ fail for gamblers crown, i am trying to do something like, meld 2 materia-> store -> meld 3rd materia after store 10 x 2 materia gears -> meld 4th materia after store 10 x 3 materia gear......

But I just found today it is really easy to fail continuously for 20-30% success rate.......just make me think of give up... not worse for more gil input........already paid more than 10 million on it.....

[Eyn]

You could just buy the items with 4 melds for the easy way out.

[TheVedis]

just because you have a success rate of 20% does not mean you are guarneteed 1 in 5 to succeed

thats the average basicaly


so while you went 0/10 someone else probly just went 4/10 and therefore, you still have 20%

[NotApplicable]

If you're doing a double meld that has a, say, 20% chance of success, that means that all attempts everyone will make over the course of (in game) moon phases, days, months, and years will average out to be 20%. You may attempt 20 melds and succeed on all of them or none of them.

There is undeniable pretty damn good evidence that says the dates and moonphases have an effect on melding (and had an effect on HQing), so if you notice you fail ten times in a row, stop trying silly~

[tymora]

There is undeniable pretty damn good evidence that says the dates and moonphases have an effect on melding (and had an effect on HQing), so if you notice you fail ten times in a row, stop trying silly~

Oh? what evidence?