Melding success rate

[WinterSkyblue]

When melding multiple materia into same gears, system will give a success rate.

Don't know how many people has experience like me.....but i really double on the success rate. I've never have actual success rate higher than system provided, but usually got actual success rate lower than told.

I've just do melding, system show success rate between 25% - 30%, but got continuous failed for 10 attempts! The possibility to continuous fail is less than 1% but I am experienced not only once!

For the achievement to meld 5 materia into 1 gear, i actually meld 500+ gears and use up 1000+ materia. I can told that the success rate provided from FFXIV is a shXX!

Would SE do sometime on the success rate? What I means is that, If you said it is 20% success, than I expect that I will got at least 15 success from 100 attempts. I think it should be reasonable expectation?

[Asiaine]

Perhaps 20% success does not mean you have a 20% chance of success ^.^:
Perhaps it really means 20% success is 20% of the maximum success rate that you can have.

If the maximum success rate (hidden value) is 80%, and you have 20% success rate, then you really have a 16% success.
If you have a 100% success rate, then you really have a 80% success rate.

Of course, I could be wrong, but it would be interesting to note if anyone had a 100% success rate and fail.

[Scarface]

Perhaps 20% success does not mean you have a 20% chance of success ^.^:
Perhaps it really means 20% success is 20% of the maximum success rate that you can have.

If the maximum success rate (hidden value) is 80%, and you have 20% success rate, then you really have a 16% success.
If you have a 100% success rate, then you really have a 80% success rate.


Of course, I could be wrong, but it would be interesting to note if anyone had a 100% success rate and fail.

Good theory, however I'd like to attribute OPs case to bad luck :x

FYI: I went 1/17 on gamblers crown. LS mates of mine went like 1/50, and 1/150+

[WinterSkyblue]

Good theory, however I'd like to attribute OPs case to bad luck :x

FYI: I went 1/17 on gamblers crown. LS mates of mine went like 1/50, and 1/150+

>_<
Yes, bad luck gay like me never success in simple attempt. After 100+ fail for gamblers crown, i am trying to do something like, meld 2 materia-> store -> meld 3rd materia after store 10 x 2 materia gears -> meld 4th materia after store 10 x 3 materia gear......

But I just found today it is really easy to fail continuously for 20-30% success rate.......just make me think of give up... not worse for more gil input........already paid more than 10 million on it.....

[Lux_Rayna]

Good theory, however I'd like to attribute OPs case to bad luck :x

FYI: I went 1/17 on gamblers crown. LS mates of mine went like 1/50, and 1/150+

Correct! Its all basic probability theory.

Middle school teaches us to perceive percentages as reduced fractions. Therefore we look at 20% as 1/5, 50% as 1/2, and 33% as roughly 1/3. Of course, we're not completely naive so we tend to expand these fractions up to the denominator of 100. Psychologically, we expect that 100 attempts max will give us the success we are looking for. In this way, 20% is 20/100, 40% is 40/100, and 85% is 85/100. We expect out of 100 attempts max, we should at least get something even if the percentage chance is only 1% (or 1/100).

The fact of the matter is that this is not true. Probability (ie the percentage) is not necessarily a function of 100 attempts. We think of it this way because of education, but probability is literally infinite. You might see 3% over 5 attempts, 10 attempts, 100 attempts, or 10,000 attempts. After all, 3% of 10,000 is 300. You may not see the first of that 300 til the 500 mark, the 1000 mark, or maybe even the 9000 mark. Because of this infinite nature of probability, it is both random and consistent. It is random in that every attempt has an equal chance of succeeding or failing. Try 1 time, or 1000 times...every individual attempt will always give you an 3% chance of success (or whatever the probability is). It is consistent in that, despite these random outcomes, over the long run the 3% probability rate will prove true.

When you do anything that involves probability, you have to understand this and accept it. Even if your success rate was 99%, you could still fail every time for the next 100 attempts. Any chance of failure means that failure is an equal possibility on any inidividual attempt you make. Likely? No. But it is a possibility. Always. If you are gonna embark on this endeavor, the secret is to treat every attempt as a coin toss. People mistakenly believe that every attempt they make raises their chance of success, and this is where they get frustrated. If I believe in the 1/5, or 20/100, by attempt number 4 I'm expecting success, and by attempt 80 I am positive I will succeed very very soon. Unfortunately, probability does not work this way. Every attempt is purely individual and entirely random. Attempt 2 wont have a higher chance of success than attempt 1, and attempt 100 doesn't bring you any closer than attempt 5.

Once you accept this, it wont bother you. Treat every attempt as independent and random, like hitting the restart button. This means to stop counting your attempts, because the number of attempts does not make a difference, nor does it help you. Number of attempts is irrelevant. Attempt 1000 is no different in probability than attempt 1. Stop counting. Every attempt is an independent random outcome. Despite this, you have to trust that as long as you keep trying, you will eventually succeed because probability is also consistent. You dont know *when* this success will start, but you know that it will. In other words, every attempt has a chance of success, and because of that, one attempt will succeed as long as you don't quit.

I know it seems contradictory, but this is the paradox of probabilities as I have read it: random outcome, consistent results. In case any of you are curious, this actually all came from a book on investment psychology. But it applies here, as well as to anything that seems to have a "gambling" nature about it.

[WinterSkyblue]

Perhaps 20% success does not mean you have a 20% chance of success ^.^:
Perhaps it really means 20% success is 20% of the maximum success rate that you can have.

If the maximum success rate (hidden value) is 80%, and you have 20% success rate, then you really have a 16% success.
If you have a 100% success rate, then you really have a 80% success rate.

Of course, I could be wrong, but it would be interesting to note if anyone had a 100% success rate and fail.

If your guest is correct, then it is no point to give us the success rate because we don't know the "hidden value".
It is same that someone tell you: You will be success in 12 x (unknow) %
Any different from not telling any rate? I don't want to thing that SE was paid to do meaningless things....

[Asiaine]

If your guest is correct, then it is no point to give us the success rate because we don't know the "hidden value".
It is same that someone tell you: You will be success in 12 x (unknow) %
Any different from not telling any rate? I don't want to thing that SE was paid to do meaningless things....

Granted it would still be frustrating to not really know what your chances are... but, at least you will know 'you are doing the best you can do'.

If you only get the value to 75%, then you know you have room for improvement.
If you get it to 100%, then you know you've done your best and now it is in the hands of the twelve.

If we had someone who got the value to 100% and failed (more than 1, in case it really was 99.5%), then that would tell us more.

[WinterSkyblue]

Granted it would still be frustrating to not really know what your chances are... but, at least you will know 'you are doing the best you can do'.

If you only get the value to 75%, then you know you have room for improvement.
If you get it to 100%, then you know you've done your best and now it is in the hands of the twelve.

If we had someone who got the value to 100% and failed (more than 1, in case it really was 99.5%), then that would tell us more.

Sorry I don't understand .......Anything I can do to increase the melding success rate? Once to meld the 2nd materia into a gear, highest success rate must less than 50% (if you meld r1 materia with lowest attribute into r50 gear, HQ will add a few %). No way to improve it (at least for what SE claim and we can see).

I think you are talking on HQ item?

[Asiaine]

Sorry I don't understand .......Anything I can do to increase the melding success rate? Once to meld the 2nd materia into a gear, highest success rate must less than 50% (if you meld r1 materia with lowest attribute into r50 gear, HQ will add a few %). No way to improve it (at least for what SE claim and we can see).

I think you are talking on HQ item?

Hello,

I think this applies to both situations. I know with crafting it is feasible right now to get it to 100?
I know with melding it is perhaps not possible? But perhaps in time there will be something that does: +10% chance to double meld. Then another +5% chance to double meld. With enough of those we could get it to 100% and then tell.

Sorry, did not mean to imply it can be done now, just that, 'if it could somehow be done' then we might be able to tell ^^;;

[Shyd]

According to my friend, getting drunk as a skunk increases chance of success by 84.55928298310293281niner88201-alpha%