Thank you, lottery

[UkcsAlias]

100 lottery cycles is 900 days which is 2.5 years. For a slightly better chance than a coinflip. That's assuming there are houses to bid on every cycle, which there soon won't be. It also assumes there are only 100 bidders for a house, which is not the case.

What a garbage system.

Blame the limited houses, not the lottery system! It takes that long because of a serious lack of houses. Dont expect that a shorter cycle gives better chances on that either, since there will simply be more cycles in which no houses will be available at all.

That each bid only has 1% is because of a big lack of houses. With 5x as high of a supply, this would become closer to 5%. The lottery scales almost linear on that (only when nearing the 100% this doesnt work anymore since at that point people will start bidding in such way that location becomes a factor.

Lets look at the odds at a 5% winrate and the number of cycles needed there. And for convenience, lets start at 20 cycles: 64.2% win chance (vs 63.3% of the 100x1% rate). And for reference after 100 cycles at 5%: 99.4%.

Now lets say the supply is equal to the player base, location will matter. And as a result some plots get no bids, while some get 5 bids. You will still have to face the randomness here (20% winrate), and again, more of these opportunities means a higher chance of obtaining it. It doesnt matter what state we are in, it works, and it works in a fair way.

Thats why the lottery is good. It scales in the best way with demand vs supply. Its that the supply is currently not even close to what is required.

Again, dont blame the lottery on this, blame the lack of wards. Because the lack of wards is what is garbage here.

[Reinha]

Blame the limited houses, not the lottery system! It takes that long because of a serious lack of houses.

Actually I do blame the lottery, because my chances weren't as low as 1% before the lottery. It was a 2 hours after a housing patch to pick and choose which house I wanted. Or it was looking at house prices at the quiet end of a patch and figuring out which house had been demolished 12-24 hours ago and going there, usually with no other players in sight because they didn't want to deal with the random placard timer that wasn't even a problem if you were smart about it.

I would have preferred to keep things as they were, when the barely active players could not enter the housing market by just logging in once a week.

[Shibi]

Actually I do blame the lottery, because my chances weren't as low as 1% before the lottery. It was a 2 hours after a housing patch to pick and choose which house I wanted. Or it was looking at house prices at the quiet end of a patch and figuring out which house had been demolished 12-24 hours ago and going there, usually with no other players in sight because they didn't want to deal with the random placard timer that wasn't even a problem if you were smart about it.

I would have preferred to keep things as they were, when the barely active players could not enter the housing market by just logging in once a week.

My question would be, as you are having a hard time with plottery now, how didn't you get a house back then, if it was easier and all?

[Reinha]

My question would be, as you are having a hard time with plottery now, how didn't you get a house back then, if it was easier and all?

I got a house three times and relocated a couple of times as well. Back in the day we had to demolish the old house before running to the new plot to buy it. After relocation became a thing it was easier to swap houses. At some point I got tired of having a house and demolished it, then got a new one later on after placard timers had been implemented.

Now I have a small at a waterfall in Lavender Beds but I wanted a house in Ishgard. Probably would have gotten one if it weren't for the lottery.

[Jojoya]

I got a house three times and relocated a couple of times as well. Back in the day we had to demolish the old house before running to the new plot to buy it. After relocation became a thing it was easier to swap houses. At some point I got tired of having a house and demolished it, then got a new one later on after placard timers had been implemented.

Now I have a small at a waterfall in Lavender Beds but I wanted a house in Ishgard. Probably would have gotten one if it weren't for the lottery.

But if you're going to be fair, back then the state of the game with respect to player population is not what is it now. It was easier to get a house not because of the lack of the lottery but because the supply was close to demand on most worlds, or even exceeding demand (primarily the JP worlds).

I can remember buying my first house back in either 3.4 or 3.5. Had to get one in Goblet since Lavender Beds and Mist were sold out (I wanted Mist) but there were still about 2 dozen plots available so it's not like i had to fight with anyone to get a plot. I was able to get it because supply was meeting demand.

Then I had to take an unexpected break right as Stormblood was released and lost the house. I barely returned to the game in time to reclaim furnishings and gil (think another 3 days and I would have lost those as well). All houses were sold out and players were complaining about not being able to buy.

Not a big deal, most of us without a house thought. Shirogane is opening in 4.1. Well, that didn't go as expected. Everything was sold out the day Shirogane opened because RMT had been preparing to claim as many of those highly coveted Shirogane and other prime plots as they could get. This was repeated across the NA worlds and most of the EU. JP again had houses left because their populations were lower so there was less demand.

A lot of players ended up disappointed because they couldn't get online fast enough to get a house anywhere, whether Shirogane or one of the plots that had opened when their former owners relocated. It was either pay RMT or go without. I wasn't about to pay RMT so I went without and settled into my apartment.

Patch 4.2 was the bright spot because SE increased the number of wards from 12 to 18. Ownership limits and the purchase timer were added, and a personal purchase moratorium was used for the first time. No one had any idea of how the changes would work out. RMT proceeded cautiously at first (which allowed me to get my medium Mist dream plot that I still have) but still the supply was so much larger than demand that RMT had no reason to focus on anything but the medium and large plots once it got bolder in its activity again. Most worlds still had plots available until the end of 2018.

And then WoW imploded. Battle for Azeroth had been released in summer 2018 and players were excited after Legion. Then after a few months they realized it was a terrible expansion. The first WoW exodus occurred start of 2019. It wasn't that big compared to the one in 2021 but still it brought a lot of new players to FFXIV. Between that and the announced data center reorganization, available houses disappeared again. Houses freed up when players transferred worlds were sold out within a couple of weeks. Since then, it's been extremely difficult to get a house because the player base has been growing faster than SE has increased the number of plots.

It's not truly that the old system was better. It was because back then the supply was close enough to demand that players wanting a house usually didn't have to work to get one. The situation would be far different if that system were still in place today.

[Archaell]

My question would be, as you are having a hard time with plottery now, how didn't you get a house back then, if it was easier and all?

Before the lottery anybody could have grinded place-cards or taken a day off from work when new wards opened up to get a house. I usually play for a half year, get a house, then stop and lose it to demolition. It's waste of gil of course, but it was working fine in the past. Now with the lottery in place chances of getting a house are kind of gone. Even transfer to new servers is a bad deal due to high chance of losing in lottery. The lottery makes it fair and easy to get a house, which is great for players without free time, but inferior system for players who have nothing better to do with their time than house hunting, because the trade-off is barely existing chance to win.