Thank you, lottery

[PredatoryCatgirl]

Lottery for limited plots is not a good system. Its just a less bad system than placard spam.

[UkcsAlias]

Lottery for limited plots is not a good system. Its just a less bad system than placard spam.

For any limited system, lottery is generaly a fair system as it gives equal chances. Even for those who play longer it is (only during its transition it might not feel like that). Over time you will see a lot of bidding cycles, this automaticly increases the odds for you (slow, but steady).

100x1% chance to win, in the end still results in a 65% overal win chance (and after 200 this is 85%). Dedication is rewarded. It might not feel like it (since after 200 cycles there is a bit less than 15% chance of still not having a house), but it still beats the 99% chance of not owning a house for someone who just did 1 cycle. Add to that the potential addition of fresh wards with massively increased odds, and the percentages will be even better in your favour.

The real issue is obviously lack of space, but in such limited system, RNG is the best. Dont blame the lottery for the real issue.

[Reinha]

100x1% chance to win, in the end still results in a 65% overal win chance (and after 200 this is 85%). Dedication is rewarded.

100 lottery cycles is 900 days which is 2.5 years. For a slightly better chance than a coinflip. That's assuming there are houses to bid on every cycle, which there soon won't be. It also assumes there are only 100 bidders for a house, which is not the case.

What a garbage system.

[UkcsAlias]

100 lottery cycles is 900 days which is 2.5 years. For a slightly better chance than a coinflip. That's assuming there are houses to bid on every cycle, which there soon won't be. It also assumes there are only 100 bidders for a house, which is not the case.

What a garbage system.

Blame the limited houses, not the lottery system! It takes that long because of a serious lack of houses. Dont expect that a shorter cycle gives better chances on that either, since there will simply be more cycles in which no houses will be available at all.

That each bid only has 1% is because of a big lack of houses. With 5x as high of a supply, this would become closer to 5%. The lottery scales almost linear on that (only when nearing the 100% this doesnt work anymore since at that point people will start bidding in such way that location becomes a factor.

Lets look at the odds at a 5% winrate and the number of cycles needed there. And for convenience, lets start at 20 cycles: 64.2% win chance (vs 63.3% of the 100x1% rate). And for reference after 100 cycles at 5%: 99.4%.

Now lets say the supply is equal to the player base, location will matter. And as a result some plots get no bids, while some get 5 bids. You will still have to face the randomness here (20% winrate), and again, more of these opportunities means a higher chance of obtaining it. It doesnt matter what state we are in, it works, and it works in a fair way.

Thats why the lottery is good. It scales in the best way with demand vs supply. Its that the supply is currently not even close to what is required.

Again, dont blame the lottery on this, blame the lack of wards. Because the lack of wards is what is garbage here.

[Reinha]

Blame the limited houses, not the lottery system! It takes that long because of a serious lack of houses.

Actually I do blame the lottery, because my chances weren't as low as 1% before the lottery. It was a 2 hours after a housing patch to pick and choose which house I wanted. Or it was looking at house prices at the quiet end of a patch and figuring out which house had been demolished 12-24 hours ago and going there, usually with no other players in sight because they didn't want to deal with the random placard timer that wasn't even a problem if you were smart about it.

I would have preferred to keep things as they were, when the barely active players could not enter the housing market by just logging in once a week.

[PredatoryCatgirl]

The real issue is obviously lack of space, but in such limited system, RNG is the best. Dont blame the lottery for the real issue.

That was kind of my point. Lottery is a fix for limited supply. Address the supply, and we don't need lottery. But no instanced housing because potato.

[SendohJin]

That was kind of my point. Lottery is a fix for limited supply. Address the supply, and we don't need lottery. But no instanced housing because potato.

Lottery is not a FIX for limited supply. It exists because there's limited supply and it wouldn't be necessary if supply meets demand but lottery doesn't fix the supply problem.

[Vencio]

It was a matter all the same to choose a “lesser evil” with game of “chance” than permit longer the placard spamming (which was relentless) & any possible third party cheater.

Truth is housing problem was always prevalent & it kept being so with lottery.

I believe those who are upset with the lottery system cannot bear along through the changes & therefore robbed them of the opportunity to gain leverage upon placard-farming or otherwise.

While I am yet wary of this new system I won’t deny it settled in much more convenient for anyone to roll on a chance to obtain it.

Just the nature of some people that can’t bear losing their “bet” on it & resort into upheaval madness all because of lottery.

I am with OP & glad I am not the only one that sees the silver lining on it.

[Shibi]

Actually I do blame the lottery, because my chances weren't as low as 1% before the lottery. It was a 2 hours after a housing patch to pick and choose which house I wanted. Or it was looking at house prices at the quiet end of a patch and figuring out which house had been demolished 12-24 hours ago and going there, usually with no other players in sight because they didn't want to deal with the random placard timer that wasn't even a problem if you were smart about it.

I would have preferred to keep things as they were, when the barely active players could not enter the housing market by just logging in once a week.

My question would be, as you are having a hard time with plottery now, how didn't you get a house back then, if it was easier and all?

[Reinha]

My question would be, as you are having a hard time with plottery now, how didn't you get a house back then, if it was easier and all?

I got a house three times and relocated a couple of times as well. Back in the day we had to demolish the old house before running to the new plot to buy it. After relocation became a thing it was easier to swap houses. At some point I got tired of having a house and demolished it, then got a new one later on after placard timers had been implemented.

Now I have a small at a waterfall in Lavender Beds but I wanted a house in Ishgard. Probably would have gotten one if it weren't for the lottery.