Wasn't Ultima a extra-dimensional being? Perhaps from another universe, from the Rift, or whatever other reason. For all we know, Meteion may not have found every single civilizations out there. Hard to believe that the first shot to a galactic bird-probe would have a 100% success.
In any case, in the long time of the universe, dead civilizations would obviously be more common than living ones. We can literally do the same on our planet: how many mass extinction event did Earth go through? And yet life still finds a way, despite being doomed to disappear again and again. Meteion is just flawed in that she doesn't understand the interest of living even if it ends eventually and thus amount to almost nothing.
Venat has only incomplete informations about Meteion report, and hasn't seen the Dead End so she wants to prevent the Ancients to go on their way and die of their perfection, not the Plenty specifically, I think.
Meteion has been using Dynamis to quicken the heat death of the universe for 13,000 years already. So no, we have no idea if any civilizations killed itself in between, or how long it would have taken to reach a critical point.
Although it's kinda fun you mention we're not going to reach any endings: we have literally black rose existing, able to wipe everything. Multiple Garlean legions unaccounted for who may or may not try to rebuild their empire and have untapped technology (as seen with the Weapons).
Eorzea has been in some kind of conflict for countless ages and only recently has been at peace, but Eorzean history would tend to prove it's only short-lived: tensions with the beasttribes would arise over territory, or even betwene city states (see: Ala Mhigo and Gridania). Not even mentioning Meracydia is a big unknown, so is the New World, and we even know there's going to be a conflict of some sort with Golbez, potentially threatening the Source.
Ceruleum is still very much in use, and if its use begins to spread, might very well affect the environment.
Nobody is saying "Etheirys will end in 200 years just like these civilzations". We're saying "Just because Venat took drastic measures to avoid one possible end, doesn't mean others aren't possible when calamities showed we could amost do it 7 times already". Yes, Ascians were involved, but mostly to make sure they happen exactly as they should. Evil is part of man, and summoning bahamut or making a pact with voidsent for power (see lady Amandine, on a grander scale, leading to a covent with the Cloud of Darkness) is still on the table for whoever feels like being a pain.
I still find hard to believe that in the 13,000 years it took for us to reach a point where we could do something about Meteion, the Ancients couldn't have found something if they knew what the cause was, especially without needing to rebuild civilization 8 times over. Zodiark was an efficient shield against something they didn't understand, albeit at a great cost. What could have been done if they knew it was coming from a certain point in space? Localized shielding in synchronized orbit? Actually researching Dynamis and ways to affect it? Entelechy research to create their own counter to Meteion? Actually trying to talk to that bird? Finding living civilizations (we did receive a message from space recently!) to prove to Meteion all is not so gloomy?
Venat literally went straight to "We've tried nothing and we're out of ideas". Just sticking to a timeline she knows ends in the Final Days starting again, the world being on the brink of oblivion, and trusting herself to have found a solution 13,000 years later despite finding logical flaws in how she acted (Why create the moon? Why sunder everybody?).


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