Predictions for 5.3?

[Archwizard]

In regards to Garlemald:

My thinking is, the Empire storyline and the Ascian storyline have diverged. While the Ascians are responsible for literally everything wrong with the world in XIV, including constructing the Empire in its entirety, 99% of the Empire is unaware of the Ascians' influence, particularly during Stormblood. The warmachine of the Empire has become an engine of destruction in its own right, which continues with infighting, conquering outlying nations, and the creation of Weapons even after the Ascians have fled the stage.

Shadowbringers was the point in the story that said "The Ascians no longer have a part in the Empire. The Empire is independent. And the Empire is still horrible." Even if we kill Elidibus, the Empire will exist as a separate violent entity until we go to Garlemald; even if we nuked Garlemald from orbit tomorrow, we would still have to deal with Elidibus and his remaining Ascian lackeys separately who might take advantage of such a Calamity. Dealing with one doesn't necessarily mean simultaneously ending the other threat - and in classic Final Fantasy fashion, finally dealing with one would really only make the other worse.

Now remember, this is an MMO: until the devs say "we're retiring the game, this is the final expansion/patch/whatever," there needs to be an engine of conflict to keep players not only coming back, but pushing into new regions.
The Ascians are on their last legs. We already have a hint of what is to come when Zodiark is gone. The only contribution the Ascians have left now is finishing them off completely. They are not that engine.
Considering Garlemald has been the driving force of the players' involvement for most of the story and the impetus of many of our pushes into new locations (including the entirety of Stormblood, the Black Rose threat sending us to the First, even helping motivate Thordan's counter-militarization), it seems unlikely the devs would remove Garlemald from the stage until they were prepared to replace it with an entirely new threat to serve as the driving force for the rest of XIV's lifetime.

For the WoW Refugees, Garlemald is like the Sargeras and the Burning Legion. This omnicidal conquering force that's constantly on the horizon, the threat of which served to motivate the Old Horde, the Illidari, the Scourge, and several player faction leaders; Sargeras has been a driving force of conflict for the entire Warcraft story. "Legion" was known as the "in case of emergency, break glass" expansion, because it was finally tying up many of the story threads that had been built for decades.
Unfortunately, breaking that glass also led to several hasty pushes to set up new enemies after the Burning Legion was gone, turning each expansion into a case of dealing with standalone threats as soon as they pop up, which is why WoW's player count has since dropped like a stone. Now that players have explored the entire known world of Azeroth, the only places to go are other worlds (where we can't even chase the threats we were invested in stopping when we started the game), or revamps on old content.

By contrast, Hydaelyn still has a lot to offer on its own surface.

In a practical sense, Garlemald would have to either be the final expansion, or be dealt with to clean the slate for a new power to take its place on the board. In order for that new power to take over in a satisfying matter, where the player doesn't just roll their eyes and go "great, we're playing whack-a-mole now," there needs to be satisfying setup well in advance -- something Final Fantasy has done very well for decades. Kefka killed Emperor Gestahl to set up the World of Ruin, Sephiroth killed President Shinra to set up Jenova, Ardyn cannibalized Niflheim to begin the Long Night, and so on.
(If you follow that trend, we have a potential setup being started with Zenos, but what makes Zenos a bad choice for this on his own is that he's a very short-sighted villain with no interest in conquering new nations or ruling from afar. Even if he attained godhood like Kefka, he wouldn't be interested in it to rule the cosmos, he would just want something to fight.)
But most importantly, the criteria for this hypothetical post-Garlemald power needs to include something that would push players into other regions of the world. Why would we later want to go to Thavnair or the New World, for instance, without the Empire as something to chase or push us there?

[rainichan]

In replaying 5.2 on one of my characters, I had a thought that may be revealed once 5.3 comes out re: who we really are. I'll get my tin foil on now, because this is just wild, rampant theories that may or may not be correct or have merit.

We know that we were friends with the Convocation, and that we are most likely the Defector, bringing the Convocation count from 14 to 13. In the scenes out of Anamnesis Anyder, Venat's group is also 13, and if we had chosen to side with them, we would be 14 there. There's always the possibility that there were more people who sided with Venat in their decision to summon a counter to Zodiark and were in their own "Convocation" of sorts, but I find it interesting that there's 13 present in that scene.

We also know that Elidibus is just a title of "emissary" and that the original decided to become Zodiark's heart, and the one we see now is just their successor in that job... but what if there were more than one? What if we were in that same vocation before we became the WoL? We ended up becoming Hydaelyn's Chosen™ because of starshowers and Her talking to us etc but I'm fairly certain Hydaelyn knew who we were when She decided to make us the WoL, most likely how Lahabrea and all them knew who we were. We're already kind of an "emissary", an ambassador, as Chai-Nuzz balks at the fact that we brought "just about everyone in bally Norvrandt" to help before we climb up Mt. Gulg.

We're Elidibus. Or one of them. An Elidibus that ended up being an emissary for Hydaelyn as opposed to Zodiark, bringing people together as an ambassador for Hydaelyn - for Venat. For Minfilia (if my own speculation on Venat's "I will retain the form of my choosing" and how Minfilia is awfully close to Hydaelyn to be chosen by her to be her own voice is correct.... HMMMM.) Our friends.

God why isn't it the 11th already so I can punch Elidibus out of my ghost boyfriend already, see how correct/wildly wrong I am and save the rest of my friends augh.

[Archwizard]

We also know that Elidibus is just a title of "emissary" and that the original decided to become Zodiark's heart, and the one we see now is just their successor in that job...

We might know that. However, Y'shtola was immediately skeptical of that theory when Urianger brought it up. I mean, how quickly would they have had to replace him after feeding him to Zodiark, after already having one vacancy from the "defector" before Zodiark was even summoned? If Elidibus was the newest member of the Convocation, why is he still treated as their leader, even among the other Unsundered?

It may be possible that somehow, despite being Zodiark's "heart", Elidibus was regurgitated to continue acting as an Emissary to Zodiark. The living embodiment of Zodiark's own will, as it were.

Sort of like how Etro gave her heart to Caius Ballad? XIV does love its callbacks to other entries, like how Amaurot is the "city of the Ancients" and essentially the Dream of the Fayth.

Personally, the bigger question to me is: How is it that those 3 were Unsundered in the first place?

[rainichan]

Ah, you're right that that's debatable - that's my bad! Especially if my "Minfilia Is Hydaelyn" theory is right; Elidibus could be the form he wants while still being Zodiark, especially if he can just teleport around-- they DO have the upper hand in Calamities vs. Light at the moment, so keeping an avatar of himself around isn't so difficult right now... unlike for Hydaelyn and keeping her own avatar moving around.

Hopefully we'll get some answers to that + how they stayed Unsundered in 5.3. My only guess at that one is that, by likely being part of the 13 who summoned Zodiark in the first place, that little inbetween they go to kept them like that as opposed to the lesser Ascians or those who they elevated to the stations they knew that they found on shards + Source. :|a

[Kesey]

In regards to Garlemald:

My thinking is, the Empire storyline and the Ascian storyline have diverged. While the Ascians are responsible for literally everything wrong with the world in XIV, including constructing the Empire in its entirety, 99% of the Empire is unaware of the Ascians' influence, particularly during Stormblood. The warmachine of the Empire has become an engine of destruction in its own right, which continues with infighting, conquering outlying nations, and the creation of Weapons even after the Ascians have fled the stage.

I agree. The Empire has become the lesser villain. In the patches following the downfall of Ascians, Zodiark, and Hydaelyn, we still need people to fight, motivate, and push us to the next greater evil threat. This shoe can only be filled by the Empire. The earliest we go to Empire will be 7.0 and will only happen if can reveal the next Ascian like threat.

[Alleluia]

Personally, I'm hoping that "brush up on Heavensward" actually means "remember all that unused space in Azys Lla?"

I'm hoping it means a return of the Red Bills, personally.

[Veloran]

It's true that the Empire needs to stay around as an engine for the story, but it's also the case that said engine is only driving in one direction - That is to say, Ilsabard. I think it was a very conscious choice to have both sidestories in ShB focus on conflicts on opposite sides of the Empire, and I think this trend will continue next expansion. Ilsabard is simply too large, with too much going on, to do in just one release. And Garlemald doesn't really have good justification to drive stories elsewhere now either, they can't be the force behind a Meracydia or New World expansion because that us way outside the limits of their reach. So I think we'll keep having sidestories whittle down the Empire until it's reasonable to actually set the MSQ there. For the next expansion though, my money is on Sharlayan and Hingashi - Both are way too old and established not to have knowledge of many of the revalations we've had in ShB, and coincidentally they're both extreme isolationists.

[Mansion]

Ala Mhigo wasn't brought up until 3.4, when Yda and Papalymo stepped back onto the stage after Teledji Adeledji's antics branded all the Scions outlaws. 3.1 - 3.3 dealt exclusively with social unrest in Ishgard and defeating Nidhogg to reach the True End of the Dragonsong War.

Actually, Yda and Papalymo's story starts at the end of 3.1, although it's not really explicitly said, the player recognizes where they are and what they are talking about. 3.2 shows the Griffon. I don't remember the patch but there is also a similar scene where Papalymo drops that hint that Yda is in fact Lyse.
It's faint, but it is continuous. (And that's why people were a bit let down that there was so much more about Doma than Ala Mhigo, because Doma comes in only in 3.55 I think)

I'll agree that 4.X teasing was more going towards Garlemald than another Shard, even if we did strike the Empire somehow while taking down Emet Selch. But in the current state, the Garlean Empire could be kind of put aside for some time. There are civil wars, there is Werlyt and there is Bozja. And if I may, why would we need to go there? Our action is only defending Eorzea and liberating nations. But I don't see us pushing the offense in Illsabard.

They could just write some kind of ongoing diplomacy going on once we have significantly weakened the Empire's aggressive stance (which could be as early as the end of 5.X), like something like helping the Populares getting more power (as we have done a bit). Making that threat tamed to focus on something else.

[Vyrerus]

Actually, Yda and Papalymo's story starts at the end of 3.1, although it's not really explicitly said, the player recognizes where they are and what they are talking about. 3.2 shows the Griffon. I don't remember the patch but there is also a similar scene where Papalymo drops that hint that Yda is in fact Lyse.
It's faint, but it is continuous. (And that's why people were a bit let down that there was so much more about Doma than Ala Mhigo, because Doma comes in only in 3.55 I think)

I'll agree that 4.X teasing was more going towards Garlemald than another Shard, even if we did strike the Empire somehow while taking down Emet Selch. But in the current state, the Garlean Empire could be kind of put aside for some time. There are civil wars, there is Werlyt and there is Bozja. And if I may, why would we need to go there? Our action is only defending Eorzea and liberating nations. But I don't see us pushing the offense in Illsabard.

They could just write some kind of ongoing diplomacy going on once we have significantly weakened the Empire's aggressive stance (which could be as early as the end of 5.X), like something like helping the Populares getting more power (as we have done a bit). Making that threat tamed to focus on something else.

Domans storyline came into play in 2.1. Then they're an active part of MSQ plotlines all the way up to the end of HW, where Gosetsu shows up. It wasn't really a matter of if we would go to Doma but when, and so it didn't need as much of a build up in HW.

I think people were really only disappointed with less Ala Mhigo, because most of the leveling and build up takes place in the Far Eastern zones, where the Ala Mhigan ones are the bread to good part of the sandwich. In fact that's a really apt comparison when looking at zone design. Ala Mhigo basically all desert and sandstone with a little garnish. Far East zones colorful and vibrant, stand out in a crowd sort of places.

[Aeliott]

I keep thinking of that mystery man hanging around with Zenos...(who seems to at least be Asahi, or one with his body/appearance and voice). He seems to know an awful lot about the goings on of the Ascians and Zodiark/Hydaelyn. Yet, unless we've been conveniently misinformed, Elidibus is the last unsundered servant of Zodiark. Not that we've seen mysterious Asahi white cloak dude use Ascian-like powers, that I recall. Though I can't help but wonder if he's this defector that keeps getting mentioned.

I know there's already an established theory that the defector is the player character before their soul was sundered. That said, the defector supported neither the convocation, nor venat and the hydaelyn rebellion shall we call it. It feels odd to me that us with our imperatively defining Blessing of Light, would be associated with someone aligned with neither. Granted, there may have been more choice in the matter before the sundering, but...I dunno. Despite everything we've learned about Hydaelyn, we've yet to see anything but good come of her blessing, that I recall. And with allies like Ryne, it feels....wrong to call Hydaelyn someone we don't side with. Maybe she'll be a tragic deity who manufactures her own demise at our hands when she's no longer needed or something (I know a lot of people like the "both gods must die" theory), but trying back to the idea of us being the defector...I don't quite subscribe