Quote Originally Posted by Iscah View Post
If I'm doing maths right on my phone calculator... (0.875) (x^y) (32) = 0.014 = only a 1.4% chance of doing 32 runs and not getting it once.

0.875 being your 7-in-8 chance of not getting it on a single run.

Bad luck just statistically happens sometimes.
The math isn't quite right since there's 3 drops per run so they had 96 chances rather than 32. They're also likely rolling against more the 7 other people. Going by what they just said in the last post they were usually rolling against 10-15 people.

It's also muddied by not being a 1 in n players roll so the base chance of losing isn't exactly (n-1)/n. E.g. rolling a 2 has a chance of winning and 98 has a chance of losing, but 2 has a much lower chance of winning than 98 does of losing. The same can be said for 3 and 97, 4 and 96, etc, so the overall weighting is unevenly skewed towards losing on average. Over time and looking at all players rolls it would be a (n-1)/n probability, but from the perspective of a single player, their probability would depend heavily on their individual rolls and only rolls above 90 would have a reasonable chance of actually winning.

All that said, yeah that's still unlucky to not have won it in 32 runs.