Quote Originally Posted by Iscah View Post
The calculation is right but your conclusion is wrong. Missing a "20% chance" four times in a row doesn't guarantee it on the fifth - and you're looking at the wrong statistic anyway because (assuming it is truly random) it's all about the individual chances per gathering attempt.

The simplest way of understanding it is that there is no "running tally" for random chance. You might have your 67% HQ chance and miss three times on a particular node - and yet it does not increase your chances of getting something on the fourth. You still have the same 33% chance of failure that you had on the first attempt.
Glad to hear the calculation is right. I have never suggested a guarantee at all. In fact we agree on this: its all about the individual chance per gathering attempt. Can you answer this: if something has a chance of happening 20% of the time and has never happened in 1000 attempts is it really 20%?