HQ % is misleading

[Kenyon]

For many months I thought the HQ % meant that probability with each hit at the node. Alas, it really means your overall chance of getting HQ for all hits combined. To achieve this effect SE actually lowers your % chance after you are successful. In effect, the % is a soft cap.

Take the example of 67% HQ chance. With 4 hits the chance that all 4 hits will be successful is, statistically .67*.67*.67*.67 = 20%. Now, not only do I not see every 5th node yield HQ on every hit I have NEVER seen it happen at all! This means that SE reduces your next hit chance after a success.

For example, if your HQ chance is 41% and you got HQ on the first of 4 hits, your chance of getting HQ is now effectively reduced to 16%. Get a second HQ success and your chance is now reduced to near 0% for the last two. I say near zero because I have actually seen my botanist get 4 HQ hits (a couple times). But never on my miner.

It would be nice if SE would update the HQ % to be real-time as the node progresses.

[Tristann]

I call bs. Do you have any significant proof for your claim? When I go on a long farming session, about 1/6 of the gathered materials are HQ which matches quite the standard max 15%.

[Iscah]

Speaking as a non-pro gatherer with no idea what high stats/melding do... do you really have a 67% HQ chance on every node?

If not, the base of your logic is off.

In any case, my experience has been that my average proportion of HQ materials from a gathering session generally matches the HQ percentage chance I had.

[Tristann]

Speaking as a non-pro gatherer with no idea what high stats/melding do... do you really have a 67% HQ chance on every node?

Ofc not, only which have the perk +HQ%. Base max was and is always 15%.

[Alien_Gamer]

Each time you whack a node you get another gather and hq roll. These rolls have no effect on future rolls. It works the exact same as flipping a coin, your chance of getting heads 10 times in a row is low but each time you flip its a 50/50 chance to get heads.

[Iscah]

Ofc not, only which have the perk +HQ%. Base max was and is always 15%.

Right, that sounds more probable.

So at very least, your phrasing that "every fifth node should yield HQ on every hit" is misleading because you're actually talking about "every fifth node with a chance of 67%" which is still once per cluster of six nodes, I assume? In which case it's not every fifth node but every thirtieth that has a 20% chance of an all-HQ run.

On top of that, even if it was every fifth node, it's still a chance rather than a guarantee. If you could be certain of getting your "20% chance" to trigger within five attempts, that would suggest they're secretly adjusting the system to improve your odds if anything.

[Kenyon]

I call bs. Do you have any significant proof for your claim? When I go on a long farming session, about 1/6 of the gathered materials are HQ which matches quite the standard max 15%.

Call BS all you like - doesn't change the facts. And frankly you are making my case - note where I said the HQ chance is all hits combined. That is what you are experiencing. Regardless I was talking about the instantaneous % just before you hit the node which often is not the figure you see displayed.

[Kenyon]

Speaking as a non-pro gatherer with no idea what high stats/melding do... do you really have a 67% HQ chance on every node?

If not, the base of your logic is off.

In any case, my experience has been that my average proportion of HQ materials from a gathering session generally matches the HQ percentage chance I had.

When you become more of a pro-gatherer you will discover an action called 'Unearth III' which grants 30-100 increase in HQ percent. That is how one gets to 41% or 67% (speaking about the new nodes in Shadowbringers.) The way I mine is only with 'Unearth III'. Generally if I do not have the GP for it I do something else. Hence all my samples for this discussion are using that action.

[Kenyon]

Each time you whack a node you get another gather and hq roll. These rolls have no effect on future rolls. It works the exact same as flipping a coin, your chance of getting heads 10 times in a row is low but each time you flip its a 50/50 chance to get heads.

My point was that it is absolutely not like flipping a coin at all - only on the first attempt for sure. I have mined over a 1000 nodes at 67%. With a sample size that large, on the average I should get 200 nodes where each hit yielded HQ. But I have never seen it! Yes, statistically it could happen but my sample size is statistically significant therefore I gotta go with observational data which implies otherwise.

[Kenyon]

Right, that sounds more probable.

So at very least, your phrasing that "every fifth node should yield HQ on every hit" is misleading because you're actually talking about "every fifth node with a chance of 67%" which is still once per cluster of six nodes, I assume? In which case it's not every fifth node but every thirtieth that has a 20% chance of an all-HQ run.

On top of that, even if it was every fifth node, it's still a chance rather than a guarantee. If you could be certain of getting your "20% chance" to trigger within five attempts, that would suggest they're secretly adjusting the system to improve your odds if anything.

Not sure I understand your point. If I cannot use Unearth III i do not hit the node so it is indeed every node I'm taking about at 67%. But it seems like you might know something about statistics. If my % calculation is wrong (I got it off the internet and am not a math major) please correct me.