HQ % is misleading

[Iscah]

Not sure I understand your point. If I cannot use Unearth III i do not hit the node so it is indeed every node I'm taking about at 67%. But it seems like you might know something about statistics. If my % calculation is wrong (I got it off the internet and am not a math major) please correct me.

The calculation is right but your conclusion is wrong. Missing a "20% chance" four times in a row doesn't guarantee it on the fifth - and you're looking at the wrong statistic anyway because (assuming it is truly random) it's all about the individual chances per gathering attempt.

The simplest way of understanding it is that there is no "running tally" for random chance. You might have your 67% HQ chance and miss three times on a particular node - and yet it does not increase your chances of getting something on the fourth. You still have the same 33% chance of failure that you had on the first attempt.

Your 67% chance, if consistent, means that you are likely to have something in the realm of 67 HQ items and 33 NQ items after a hundred attempts. It's even more likely to reach those proportions over a thousand, or million, collected results.

But short-term you'll see variations. Runs of good or bad luck. None of them affect what you'll get on your next swing.

The breaking up of your string of HQ/NQ results into "chunks" of four chances doesn't help either. Maybe you regularly have a string of six HQ in a row but split over two nodes, and so consider neither of them to fulfil your "20% chance of four in a row".


It also just seems unlikely to me that nobody has noticed your proposed "reduced chances" until now.