Here the math. Expanded balance is straight up 5% extra dps.
Expanded arrow is 5% reduced GCDs and auto-attacks, which translates to 1/0.95 = 5.3% extra dps in regards to GCDs and auto-attacks only.
Expanded spear is 5% extra crit rate. Assuming the worst case scenario at 364 base crit, we're comparing (1*0.95+1.4*0.05) to (1*0.9 + 1.4*0.1), which is 1.96% increased damage on average. However, spear only lasts 20 seconds. So to compare them, spear (1.96%*20 = 39.2) is worth less than a third of a balance (5%*30 = 150). Again, this is only if everyone in your party has no crit bonuses. With higher crit, the better spear becomes.