Male Viera as a playable character! show your support

[Duskane]

I am genuinely interested about this information as well.

Top rate? Is there a weekly top rated thread or something?

when your at the [forum top] page if you scroll to the very bottom you see [popular threads]
i think that's what they mean

[VirusOnline]

So I'm genuinely into numbers at the moment.

Facts:
This thread has the support of a unique individuals* : 1577.
The current active population*** : 583 966.
Thread started : 3-22-2019
This thread has gained the highest amount of likes in all of General Discussion and within the shortest amount of time ever and is now considered one of the top 20 threads in General Discussion.


Sample size calculation:
Margin of Error : 5%
Confidence Level : 95% / Z Score : 1.96
Population Size : 583 966
Deviation : .5
This means that a sample size of only 384 is needed in order to prove demand which has been met within the forums and therefore extends to the greater FFXIV population as a whole. If we wanted to take into consideration of only the forum population (which we will for the time being say the forum consists of only .5%- 1% of the active playerbase, the sample size is considered to be ~330-360).

Poll :
Total Polled : 4763**
Generally against genderlock : 57.62%
Against genderlocked Viera : 54.20 %
Against genderlocked Hrothgar : 56.07%
I am not sure if this poll has been filtered to account for unique submission. Therefore, poll cannot be accounted for unique submissions, but can in someways help see from within and outside of the forums that if a random group of people are polled, there exists demand to unlock the genders. Take into consideration a hefty margin of error of +/- ~7% in all categories ranging from in favor to strongly opposed to account for duplicates from any category.


Someone before mentioned sample size and it's been lingering in my head for some time and thus impelled me to this.
I am not a maths person. Therefore, if a maths person does find a need to correct me please do by all means and with haste !

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* unique individuals means that there can only be 1 like per 1 individual person, cannot be multiple likes from 1 individual.

** the values are fact at this current post's time.

*** active population signifies per the census website 'characters that have claimed the "dress-up raubahn" mount from the 4.1 story - hence we can assume that the real active population is somewhat less than 583 000 as this is not a unique number (an individual can have alts who have obtained this)

[Anselmet]

snip

I really wanted to post something like this especially when people were mocking that our poll and like ratio doesn't even represent a percent of active players. That is not how polling works and what you did is correct. Polls are reflective of the greater population and a margin of error of 7% not be ideal, but even at its extreme, majority of players support male viera and female hrothgar.

Good job.

[Senn]

I actually didn't understand most of that. Margin of error, confidence level, deviation, etc... Would be nice if someone were to explain in layman's terms.

[Anselmet]

I actually didn't understand most of that. Margin of error, confidence level, deviation, etc... Would be nice if someone were to explain in layman's terms.

Margin of error means the error percentage of the results of our poll. In this instance 57% of our poll support no gender lock. That means the real population could be as low 50% support no gender lock to 64%. I'm not sure on confidence level but I know it is linked to margin of error so it might be the probability that the true percentage should be between 50% and 64%. Someone please correct if I an wrong. I believe deviation is what you use to determine the margine of error so in this care how much of the population is represented in the poll.

Not an expert, but i hope this helps.

[Cerat]

I actually didn't understand most of that. Margin of error, confidence level, deviation, etc... Would be nice if someone were to explain in layman's terms.

Margin of error: there is a ~7% margin above and below what is said that the actual numbers could fall in. While a smaller number means it is more accurate, for example elections in the US usually account for a 2% margin of error when it comes to statistically who will pull ahead in any given election, which would be considered more accurate than our 7% as it’s a smaller range for the poll. The top statistics based on active playerbase would also be more accurate with a 5% margin of error.

Confidence level is simply how confident, based on the statistics, they are of the prediction. So with a 95% confidence level they can say that given the data they are 95% confident that the numbers stated (1500+ likes with only a 380~ sample size needed) is accurate.

The deviation is a difference in two of the statistics (I’m too tired to say which ones and I don’t want to provide inaccurate information to the best of my ability)

So essentially it’s saying that these are the stats that they’re extremely confident in and has X% difference in what they said and what it could ACTUALLY be.

Please feel free to correct me on anything I may have said incorrectly @Virus

[Senn]

Thanks for the explanations. So I'm asking because I'm a bit confused but, since people can't dislike posts, how would 1577 likes be an accurate sample size?
Even though I linked the poll in my first post, I'm not counting that since people could take the survey multiple times.

[Cerat]

Thanks for the explanations. So I'm asking because I'm a bit confused but, since people can't dislike posts, how would 1577 likes be an accurate sample size?
Even though I linked the poll in my first post, I'm not counting that since people could take the survey multiple times.

Forum posters are only a very small fraction of the community, which the active playerbase is somewhere over 580,000 potentially, maybe even smaller as that figure includes potential alt characters. When taking a sample you don’t need a LARGE percentage of the potential respondents, generally a few hundred-a thousand is sampled in most major statistics depending on what they’re testing. Obviously a larger response pool would be more accurate but that’s not feasible with a population this size in most cases. So they used the data that is available and able to be worked with to determine a sample size that would be large enough to show demand , in this case 384 likes would do so. Think of it this way, in any poll you read about, the average sample size is anywhere from 500-1000 and that’s usually accounting for TENS of MILLIONS of people, far more than the community. Statistics allow you to take a smaller sample size and compare it to a larger pool and that’s where the margin of error, deviation and confidence level come into play to say that while it can’t be 100% accurate with this size this is what it’s believed to be with X confidence and could be + or - X%.

[Anselmet]

Thanks for the explanations. So I'm asking because I'm a bit confused but, since people can't dislike posts, how would 1577 likes be an accurate sample size?
Even though I linked the poll in my first post, I'm not counting that since people could take the survey multiple times.

When I was calculating the margin of error for myself I used a poll from a much earlier forum thread. It actually gave me a lower margin of error so I'm not sure that is what they are using, but suspect that they are. I'm on phone and can't be near a computer for a few hours, but if you want the poll then later I can link you it.

[Senn]

...

When you're talking about sample sizes, aren't those normally done by picking people at random, and not people who all agree on something? The 1577 likes don't take into account the people who don't want male viera. This isn't a random sample size, so would using this still be accurate?
I'm not trying to play devil's advocate or anything, I just want to understand.

When I was calculating the margin of error for myself I used a poll from a much earlier forum thread. It actually gave me a lower margin of error so I'm not sure that is what they are using, but suspect that they are. I'm on phone and can't be near a computer for a few hours, but if you want the poll then later I can link you it.

Is the poll you are referring to the one I linked to in the OP? If not, go ahead and link it.