Very sure, I'd say. This happened before in 1.0 before the 7th Umbral Calamity happened. At the very least, Y'shtola and Urianger recognize the aether drain.

This is what Y'shtola has to say about what's happening.

Quote Originally Posted by In Doma
Y'shtola
A local miner who supplies crystals for the rebuilding effort. Of late, he claims to have struggled to find a crystal with so much as a trace of elemental energy.
Upon learning that I had some knowledge of aether, he came seeking my counsel. Just now he brought me one of his recent finds.
It was precisely as he described─devoid of elemental energy...and eerily reminiscent of the deaspected crystals that manifested in Eorzea in the days prior to the Calamity. We would be wise to investigate this phenomenon more closely.
Quote Originally Posted by At the House of the Crooked Coin
Y'shtola
While the device itself harbos a surfeit of aether, the opposite is true of the surrounding area...
An effect of regulation, perhaps? A similar phenomenon seemed to be occurring in Doma...
Quote Originally Posted by In Mor Dhona
Y'shtola
One other thing, During my visit to the Far East, I observed a strange phenomenon.

Urianger

Thou referest, I presume, to the localized reduction in aetheric density?

Y'shtola
Well, that spares me the trouble of an explanation. Yes. I noted precisely that the two apparently unconnected locations. I take it the phenomenon is not limited to the Far East?

Urianger
Indeed not. Of late, our agents charged with surveiling the beast tribes have spoken of little else. In every corner of the realm, they tell of places in which the aether hath grown thin.
Naturally, my suspicious first turned to primal activity, but the areas thus affected betray no evidence of summoning. I must confess to being quite perplexed.

Y'shtola
If the same phenomenon is being observed in multiple locations on opposite sides of the world, we may safely discount regional factors. Needless to say, this warrants further investigation.
So the same aether drain prior to the 7th Umbral Calamity is being seen world-wide again. Unless Urianger and Y'shtola are mistaken, then it's very good evidence for another Calamity happening. At least, until the next patch and we find out more information.