New Year's Poem 2018

[Anonymoose]

The Histories are written by Man.
It's singular not plural.

Fixed, thank you!

The big question for me is what machinations lead us there. The 4.X patches are clearly dealing with the fallout of the liberation but beyond that I am not yet seeing a meta plot that leads to what comes next forming.

Long-winded and rambling musing ahoy.

It's possible Varis's leadership might just not be sustainable.

Solus was a dictator, but he was an easy man to follow. His mission statement was simple: "Our world will soon perish if we do not cast aside all but truth and strength and destroy everything that should not be." Yes, that meant casting a genocidally-wide net over "threats to the world". Yes, that meant utterly crushing resistance to this simple and self-evidently beneficial "order" so they could get moving again. But it was easy for any one cog in the machine to think, "I'm a good guy. These savages are bad guys. The ends justify the means."

It takes more than fire and blood to break that mindset, especially when deiforms keep popping up and validating the severity of the threat. And in the midst of all this he was elected to the role of dictator by an established republic; he gave them their pride back, he was a patron of the arts and meritocratic freedoms, and he seems to have been generally thought of well enough.

(Not that any of that changes that his approach plays directly into the Ascians' hands by putting a considerable amount of fear, desperation, and pressure on everything they touch while fostering a culture rife with contemptible -isms and unceasing warfare just begging for the "fortuitous" rise of a "balanced" opponent.)

Since Varis took power, however, pretty much all of that black and white has fallen into the gray. He censors and oppresses even pureblood Garleans in their own capital. He enabled his madman of a son to slaughter loyal subjects and pureblood soldiers upon whims and rule through fear and abuse (and it didn't even get results). He signed off on a plan that's lost two city-states (so far). He signed off on grotesquely unethical experiments, including upon his own people. He authorized the containment and control of the primals that should have been exterminated the moment such a thing was possible. He consorts with the very forces of shadow that have threatened our world since the beginning of time as we know it because one of them has more honeyed words than objective credibility. Over and over again he embraces the things which should not be.

Varis is little more than an unfeeling and blunt club, and in my opinion he's a mockery of the Empire's only-slightly-less-misguided mission. And now the Eorzeans have taken Ala Mhigo and control the land bridge into Aldenard. The Far Easterners have taken Doma and control up to the southern mountain pass (including that if Dalmasca breaks free of Imperial yoke). They're set to be simultaneously invaded on two fronts.

I mean, personally, I wouldn't. I'd secure both and bottleneck them, and see if the leaders of Radz-at-Han could be convinced that Varis isn't the neighbor Solus was and to facilitate our efforts to contain him before things get worse. Having Ilsabard invaded from the Near East with Ala Mhigo and Doma (and perhaps Dalmasca) waiting in the northland flanks would be a disaster for the capital. No matter the course, it's an advantageous position, and if Ilsabard is truly full of sensible, stable, happy city-states that love traditional Garlean order, perhaps they might turn on Varis. Who knows, maybe "Larsa" will entreat us in Kugane and get the ball rolling before even that.

Elidibus probably wants this war to get worse before it gets better, otherwise he wouldn't have set things up to land the Eorzeans and Garleans on equal footing (remember, he's responsible for Shinryu AND Resonance). I assume he expects Varis to make a Xande-caliber mistake with his new technologies and trigger a calamity. If we can overthrow Varis and unite Ilsabard under a proper Garlean banner with a polished mission statement and ally with them in future conflicts, the Ascians lose most of their pieces.

Assuming Varis doesn't just come to his senses somehow. He seems irredeemable to me but the Warring Triad arc sent some mixed signals. And assuming Elidibus doesn't already have most of the board just where he wants it. An obvious "strike at the core problem, bring peace, spread the light" scenario (irresistible bait for the Warrior of Light) would be a nice distraction to keep everyone busy while you set Zodiark's rebirth into motion. Who says you need to destroy all 13 worlds to get Him started? 7 is a majority.

And there's still that whole bodysnatching angle in the background.

...Really I just want to see a Garlean give that old speech again.

Believe thyself. Believe thy strength.
Know thyself. Know thy weakness.
Thou art alone. One amongst many.
The land is alone. One star in the void.
See through the lies. See beyond the words of deceivers.
Follow the truth. Follow the whispers of verity.
Protect that which must be. Destroy that which must not.
For Calamity draws nigh. The End is upon thee!

Triple points if it's Gaius speaking.

[Balipu]

Aren't these poems supposed to be hints for the next expansion? They seem very vauge. Like more than usual. Unless we do timetravel and/or battle the gods.
Allagan conquest of Meracydia?

[Belhi]

Its possible Varis might be doing a 'whatever is necessary justify the means in the face of doom'. It all comes down to what he knows, what his goals are and what he feels is necessary to achieve those goals. He seems to at least be aware about the nature of the world as much as the WoL is and that is really only known by afew people. I wouldn't be surprised if outside the Scions almost no one we deal with on a common basis has any idea of the nature of the world and the Calamities.

Lets be honest. The things that Solus agreed to hardly improved the situation in many cases and often made them worse. Abuse of concurred territories also wasn't something new under Varis's reign. Why he though it would be a good idea to crash a moon into the planet is beyond me.

I feel that in some way Varis will either try something and it will go wrong or someone will stop him while he is trying to do something and that will lead to things going wrong. One way or another I feel it is almost certain we will be heading to Garlemald next expansion and honestly I don't see an invasion as practical or likely. Its not like every corner of the empire would be as prone to revolution as the ones we are visiting. Closer to their heartland, much of the empire likely is mostly assimilated into Garlean culture. Hell, if we destabilise Garlemald I could easily see Ilsibard falling into anarchy and war which would be furtile grounds for the machinations of the Ascians.

[Anonymoose]

Its possible Varis might be doing a 'whatever is necessary justify the means in the face of doom'. It all comes down to what he knows, what his goals are and what he feels is necessary to achieve those goals. He seems to at least be aware about the nature of the world as much as the WoL is and that is really only known by afew people. I wouldn't be surprised if outside the Scions almost no one we deal with on a common basis has any idea of the nature of the world and the Calamities.

To be fair, he's working with Elidibus. Anyone who's taken a few minutes to hear that guy out tends to peruse that pamphlet.

But I'd agree that Varis is malleable. In Patch 2.4, they reveal that he was so set upon Eorzean annexation that he spoke out against and clandestinely worked to undermine the Meteor project. When discussing the Ivy's masters, the Alliance concludes that one must be Varis because it's a higher authority than Gaius van Baelsar but it can't be Solus because he cared more about exterminating primals than conquering Eorzea to the point that he would see it reduced to ash.

Fast forward two patches.

Varis zos Galvus
You know as well as we what will ensue should these insatiable creatures be allowed to roam free─that their very existence threatens the life of this star. We but disagree on the solution to the problem. <...> The fate of Eorzea and its inhabitants is of little concern next to the fate of the world. 'Tis my solemn charge as emperor to bring the eikons to heel. If this requires the extermination of certain elements, then so be it.

So yeah, Varis has shown that he's adjustable.

Abuse of concurred territories also wasn't something new under Varis's reign. Why he though it would be a good idea to crash a moon into the planet is beyond me.

I'm no Garlean sympathizer by any means, but imho it's to be expected that the people we've talked to about the empire (territories far from the capital, populations in open rebellion, hamlets with no strategic value) have many stories of neglect and slaughter. We've at the same time been told that cities which transition well to actively contributing to the "save the planet" bandwagon barely change once annexed. (Though who knows what's true.)

As for Solus I think he was just old. When you're pushing 90 and have been stalled on the last leg of your goal for over a decade, some things become acceptable that might not have otherwise been so. He was sick and dying and Nael offered him a chance to end the primal threat on Aldenard. He didn't care about (what were to him) a bunch of beast tribe savages and petulant, false-god-worshipping city-states who actively fought against what was best for them. Gaius van Baelsar was disgusted that Nael had so deftly deceived him into hand-waving the risks.

I feel that in some way Varis will either try something and it will go wrong or someone will stop him while he is trying to do something and that will lead to things going wrong. One way or another I feel it is almost certain we will be heading to Garlemald next expansion and honestly I don't see an invasion as practical or likely. Its not like every corner of the empire would be as prone to revolution as the ones we are visiting. Closer to their heartland, much of the empire likely is mostly assimilated into Garlean culture. Hell, if we destabilise Garlemald I could easily see Ilsibard falling into anarchy and war which would be furtile grounds for the machinations of the Ascians.

I agree with all of that, just a few degrees askew. I think Varis is likely to screw up, though I'm not sure if it's more probable that it will occur before, during, or independent of Eorzean intervention and/or Garlean power struggles. I think that we're going to Ilsabard in 5.0 and that it's not necessary that we arrive on bad terms if everything unfolds in the background. I think the core of the Empire is probably happily Garlean, but that Varis has not been behaving in concert with established Garlean values; I think they might be open to his removal if he crossed certain lines (some might be content with that based on lines he's already crossed if they found out about it). And I think at the end of 5.0, the Garlean Empire should be intact, strong, and with better leadership to best prevent the spread of further war and primals; and aid in the final battles.

From a gameplay standpoint, they also have to make sense of open-world enemies. If we made peace with the Garlean Empire today, being aggro'd by soldiers in Yanxia and La Noscea makes sense. They're remnants of rogue, fallen, abandoned, disgraced legions. But we can't go to Ilsabard on bad terms, make the context that we're there to fight imperials, and then make peace with them and leave a bunch of aggro in the field, lol. They're not spoiled for choice in how to resolve this conflict (or good excuses to go to the Near East and do things, really).

That doesn't mean war must be protracted, though. Carving a path to the heart of a problem and destroying it is something we've been able to do before - including doing it to both sides of a war that'd been actively raging for 1,000 years. We don't need to shatter Ilsabard to have a few battles and throw Varis off the throne if need be. We killed the leader of Ishgard while wandering the city-state and counties in relative peace. Deft use of instanced skirmishes counts for a lot.

Why would I focus on this for the time being? Thematic consistency, I suppose. Since 1.00, there's been a supernatural war (Ascians, primals) and a traditional war (Garlemald). The forces behind the supernatural war often exacerbate traditional wars to achieve their goals, and this was to be no exception. However, after all that anticipation and framing, should the story really just allow the entire [War with the Garlean Empire] to evaporate after we gnawed away at two weakened fringe cities and killed the son of an emperor with fewer boundaries and more atrocities than the last? It's not terribly cathartic, lol. On the other hand, we don't have a great history in taking out Elidibus's pawns with our own hands, either.

Still, a guy makes artificial Echo users by aether-sucking (at least) hundreds of people to death while simultaneously turning his own people into Tyrants-a-la-Biohazard and working to bind primals, I'd like to personally kick him with my own boot and end the war on that note. I'd also accept Gaius van Baelsar crashing an airship into him.

[Keever]

...open-world enemies...

They've already *sort of* addressed this issue in Stormblood—there are, in fact, no open-world Garlean soldier mobs in the 60-70 zones. Castrum Fluminis is only populated by some wild dogs ("taoquan"), and the ruins of Monzen are full of a bunch of those armoured mechanical warriors, abandoned and running amok. Gyr Abania has nothing but a FATE or two, also with machinery running amok. Of course, this makes the cracks pretty obvious. The Ala Mhigans' warnings to not venture near Imperial structures don't hold up to much scrutiny when you can just walk up to them and immediately notice the complete lack of activity at every one.

It's a little disappointing, but I won't be surprised if they continue doing this in the next expansion. Follow the MSQ markers, and trust us when we say there's a vague possibility of enemies over there! Wooooooooo~!

[Cilia]

In Varis' defense, there is no record of him endorsing or even being aware of Zenos' (through Aulus) experiments. I find it extremely difficult to believe that he was in the dark on everything Zenos was up to, but that's just my personal feelings - innocence until guilt is proven.

Ehh... my personal feeling on Varis? Ehh... Elidibus is going to try and shill him a way to have Garlemald survive in the compressed world and he'll take it, but it'll come at the expense of the rest of the world which will necessitate an opposition from everyone. The Mysterious Figure in the 4.1 teaser might be the "Larsa" everyone wants, who learns of it and plans to lead us in a preemptive strike via airship from Kugane, making Varis the Final Boss proper of Stormblood. 5.0 will be trying to resolve (another) war of succession in Garlemald as "Larsa" makes his claim to the throne, backed up by the protagonists and the less extreme (i.e. pro-republic, anti-racist) Garleans. While Doma and Ala Mhigo made successful bids for independence, I don't think defeating the Empire as a whole is a realistic objective - the losses the Empire suffered during 4.0 were due to incompetent and/or careless commanders, a mistake Varis is not likely to repeat.

Anyway, this is about the new year's hint, so...

The first two lines are obviously referencing how fate is in the hands of the gods (assuming you believe in either), while history is written by men. The point is to highlight historical inaccuracies are deliberately made by people to glorify themselves.

The third line seems to be a reference to the reversing fortunes of the conquered territories and Garlemald; those nations once fallen have risen up, while Garlemald's elevated self is beginning to fall. There may be more to it than that, but beyond things like zombies I couldn't make a guess, and if it's to tie in with the first two lines it's certainly a reference to the fate of nations.

The last line and it being "anachronistic"... hmm. That would imply that the journal is very old, and something like the line suggests the writer is immortal. I'm on board with the writer being Elidibus, but what he means (beyond "history is rife with inaccuracies" and "all this has happened before and will happen again") I couldn't say.

[Keever]

I'm on board with the writer being Elidibus

Well, now you've gone and made me crave for an Ascian Origins: Elidibus story in the upcoming patches. He could be, like, the Urianger of his time, and stumble across the secrets of the dawn of the universe, only he's fixated on the whole "unify all beings" thing and signs up for Team Zodiark. "The fallen rise"—a mortal must die to become one of Zodiark's chosen and pass between worlds.

But it's still probably mostly Ivalice-related.

[YianKutku]

I'm also curious about the parts around the poem itself.

Strange... I was expecting perhaps another ancient Eastern proverb, or even a passage from the diary of the late Archon Louisoix. What could this mean for the future of the realm? I suppose we can only speculate until the truth reveals itself.

Would this be a significant hint in some way? Specifically the part about expecting something else from previous New Years letters, as opposed to this excerpt from an allegedly anachronistic diary.

Or is it just flavour, and can be ignored?

[Anonymoose]

In Varis' defense, there is no record of him endorsing or even being aware of Zenos' (through Aulus) experiments.

Setting aside that Zenos's actions were oft based on his father's (lack of) consent—why Zenos didn't attack the Wall, resorted to baiting the Alliance deeper into his own territory, went to Doma even though he didn't want to (and bailed as soon as Shinryu was found, saying that he'd fulfilled the letter of his orders and was thus beyond Varis's reporach), and was allotted a massive R&D budget on tech that is coincidentally exactly what Elidibus was proffering—I would argue that Elidibus's lines at the end don't leave an abundance of wiggle room for what the Emperor was ignorant of.

Elidibus
You do not mourn his loss? ...You surprise me, Your Radiance. He was your son and heir...and an irreplaceable test subject.

In other languages this line is rendered as "Are you so ruthless a man that to raise an empire that would dominate the entire world you would even sacrifice your trueborn son on the laboratory table without difficulty?" That Varis didn't have any questions about that (otherwise vague and ominous) phrasing leads me to infer that was well-apprised of the XIIth's actions.

Elidibus is amused by Varis's conviction and assures him (when Varis threatens to hunt the Ascians for teaching the tribes how to summon primals in the first place) they are both acting in service of the world's salvation. Elidibus assures Varis that the only way to save the world is to "change it" via the Rejoining. Varis leaves it unclear whether Elidibus implied or explicitly said that the only reason he intends to awaken Zodiark is to force His reunion with Hydaelyn, but this is his impression and Elidibus encourages it.

Could it be true? Perhaps. I would argue that Elidibus sympathizers should embrace this as a core part of their philosophy. Perhaps, even directly linked to Zodiark's will, Elidibus doesn't have the same "burn Her out like a parasite" drive He instilled in the overlords. (It was directly stated that Zodiark gave Elidibus a unique mission) Extending from that, perhaps Zodiark truly wants to go home. Or perhaps Zodiark was unable to strip Elidibus of all of his mortality and he works within the exact letter of Zodiark's will while still undermining His end goals (as Elidibus has shown he's capable of doing to every other faction). Perhaps Elidibus is running a Gospel of Judas-level sacrifice and long-con as Hydaelyn's greatest champion. (I still hope he's a snake and goes full Time Compression and ends up the ultimate baddy, but hopes don't count.)

Notice this exchange, though:

Varis zos Galvus
Compression. Resurrection. All is in service to your “one true god.” And when the sundered shards are made whole, will there be a place for us mere mortals?

Elidibus
Doubt my claims and question my motives if you will, Your Radiance. You will come to trust me in time.

Sound familiar? Flashback: Patch 2.1

Elidibus
Your Mother favors you still, that much is plain. But surely you must feel it? Her influence wanes, and Her strength shall soon be spent. These lands, these people, this world─all shall soon change. As it was, so shall it be again. As it should always have been. Doubt my claims and question my motives if you will. Only believe me when I say this... I am Elidibus, emissary─bearer of the word of the one true god. And we shall meet again.

Why would he echo the very same line he used when he admitted that whatever happens to us, we won't ever be the same?

Encyclopædia Eorzea
Nevertheless, his loyalty to Zodiark—the will within the Darkness—is absolute.

Should we feel comfort in assuming that these boundaries guarantee that either Zodiark wants to be reunited with Hydaelyn or Elidibus is a liar? Or what if Elidibus is only correct in saying this by technicality. Zodiark is stronger than Hydaelyn - what if being reunited with Her simply smothers her out? "Burns her out like a parasite" if you will. Or what if Elidibus was only ever referring to Zodiark being reunited with the planet Hydaelyn, leaving the Mothercrystal's fate entirely unspoken.

[Balipu]

I'm also curious about the parts around the poem itself.



Would this be a significant hint in some way? Specifically the part about expecting something else from previous New Years letters, as opposed to this excerpt from an allegedly anachronistic diary.

Or is it just flavour, and can be ignored?

Maybe. Perhaps it is a hint that the story will not go the way we think it will go. So far is seems obvious that after dealing with the provinces we go straight to Ilsabard. So by that logic we will not go to Ilsabard.

EDIT: Maybe we will finally go to the other shards. We go there to defy the Zodiark (the god) and to see how different history was shaped there. As an added bonus let's go there as villains who want to stop a light void by killing the local Scions.