New Year's Poem 2018

[Lauront]

Setting aside that Zenos's actions were oft based on his father's (lack of) consent—why Zenos didn't attack the Wall, resorted to baiting the Alliance deeper into his own territory, went to Doma even though he didn't want to (and bailed as soon as Shinryu was found, saying that he'd fulfilled the letter of his orders and was thus beyond Varis's reporach), and was allotted a massive R&D budget on tech that is coincidentally exactly what Elidibus was proffering—I would argue that Elidibus's lines at the end don't leave an abundance of wiggle room for what the Emperor was ignorant of.

This is assuming that Zenos was not claiming the budget for other purposes and then using them for the R&D in question. Ala Mhigo and Doma were particularly recalcitrant provinces, which is why the Emperor might have allowed his son control over them in the first place - to ensure they don't rebel again. Whether he was fully aware of all that went on or not, is unclear. As to Elidibus referring to him as a test subject... the context is entirely unclear. That he did not have questions about it could be due to the fact that Elidibus had already made him aware of the chain of actions that led to Zenos empowering himself and giving rise to Shinryu, which the Emperor might at that point have allowed if it got the WoL off the Empire's case. It is true, he did not seem surprised at the choice of wording, but the whys and wherefores are in the dark.

I don't really disagree with your broader assessment as to how things might pan out for the Empire, but it's not a fait accompli just yet. There's too many missing threads to conclude much about the Emperor's role in it yet. On the one hand, he did not see his son as fit to sit on a throne, precisely because he considered him to be a monster, he opposed Project Meteor and you have to consider the fact that a man as honourable as Regula was very loyal to him on a personal level. On the other hand, he does exercise some level of censorship and he wishes to subjugate the Eikon threat and its causes by any means. With what happened in the Dragonsong War, you can certainly see why the Empire has even more reason now to worry about how Eikons can arise than it did before. I had suspected they might pull a Kefka when the Warring Triad came in with Regula, yet they haven't. If they substitute Varis with a more palatable choice later on, if/when the Empire chooses to work with the Eorzean Alliance, so be it.

Yes, it's interesting that Elidibus repeated the same line to him that he had to "us", and it might be that he had more success convincing Varis than the WOL or indeed Urianger, yet this is an individual even more cynical about aetheric entities like Primals than Thordan was. I have trouble believing he will simply fall prone to the "well this Ascian sure seems like a good guy!" line of reasoning. If deceit is their hallmark, why not assume the worst of Elidibus from the outset? He most likely will, particularly having seen Thordan's fate, and his son's own. So we'll see if he is just playing ball for appearances' sake, whilst it benefits the Empire, like Thordan did with Lahabrea.

All we have for now are speculative threads to go off and given how much SE can surprise us with the twists and turns they take, I would say a dose of scepticism remains reasonable at all times.

[Cilia]

Well, I guess the added context from the non-EN versions of the 4.0 stinger put a pretty definitive nail in the coffin of the "Varis is Going to Turn Against Elidibus and Ally with the Eorzeans™" hypothesis. Still... possible, even less probable now though.

I stand by the rest of it pending further information from 4.2.

[Theodric]

I'd like to see Varis temporarily overthrown by an Elidibus posing as Zenos. I want it to be revealed that much of Varis' more aggressive policies have been orchestrated through Elidibus' scheming. What we've seen and heard of Varis - and the Garleans as a whole - suggests that they will do whatever is needed to ensure their survival and prosperity. Yet there's a disconnect because we don't get to see that particular angle play out for ourselves.

Varis fending off an attack upon his life and retreating from Garlemald with a handful of loyal supporters could bring him to the Garlean Consulate within Kugane, leading him to meet with the Warrior of Light and explain the situation. Perhaps the circumstances surrounding Regula's tragic demise cause him to trust the Warrior of Light...and then together they learn to tolerate each other and reclaim Garlemald before Elidibus can bring destruction not only to Garlemald itself but all of Hydaelyn.

It'd certainly be far more engaging than yet another tale where the Warrior of Light manages to waltz into the heart of a nation and force reform through brute force and minimal meaningful losses on his part. It'd also be great if a morally grey male character could be kept around and redeemed for once instead of falling victim to the 'redemption through death' trope.

Rufus surviving the events of FF7 and retaining his control over Shinra, for instance, worked very nicely. He retained much of what made him Rufus yet was pragmatic enough to push for some reform here and there. Seifer is another great example - he served as a secondary antagonist for the entirety of the game yet he isn't killed off and although he is 'redeemed' he does not lose his initial charm and appeal in the process.

[Balipu]

I'd like to see Varis temporarily overthrown by an Elidibus posing as Zenos. I want it to be revealed that much of Varis' more aggressive policies have been orchestrated through Elidibus' scheming. What we've seen and heard of Varis - and the Garleans as a whole - suggests that they will do whatever is needed to ensure their survival and prosperity. Yet there's a disconnect because we don't get to see that particular angle play out for ourselves.
Varis fending off an attack upon his life and retreating from Garlemald with a handful of loyal supporters could bring him to the Garlean Consulate within Kugane, leading him to meet with the Warrior of Light and explain the situation. Perhaps the circumstances surrounding Regula's tragic demise cause him to trust the Warrior of Light...and then together they learn to tolerate each other and reclaim Garlemald before Elidibus can bring destruction not only to Garlemald itself but all of Hydaelyn.

It'd certainly be far more engaging than yet another tale where the Warrior of Light manages to waltz into the heart of a nation and force reform through brute force and minimal meaningful losses on his part. It'd also be great if a morally grey male character could be kept around and redeemed for once instead of falling victim to the 'redemption through death' trope.

Rufus surviving the events of FF7 and retaining his control over Shinra, for instance, worked very nicely. He retained much of what made him Rufus yet was pragmatic enough to push for some reform here and there. Seifer is another great example - he served as a secondary antagonist for the entirety of the game yet he isn't killed off and although he is 'redeemed' he does not lose his initial charm and appeal in the process.

This does not happen often but I agree with your every word here.

The only issue I have with it is that it'd make Elidibus just yet another Ascian - powerful but not much, or at all, different to Nabriales, Lahabrea or Igeyorhm.

Well who knows why he would need the Garlean Empire to himself? It might be a part of a long game. Maybe he plans for the Scions and Varis to alli. The thing is with Elidibus he usually sets up his plans that he wins either way.

[Lauront]

The only issue I have with it is that it'd make Elidibus just yet another Ascian - powerful but not much, or at all, different to Nabriales, Lahabrea or Igeyorhm. I have a nasty suspicion that they will make use of such a ploy, but it'd be a waste IMO. My hope is that if Elidibus is taking on Zenos's guise, as is suspected, he is doing something a little more nuanced than simply planning to take control of the Empire with a view to sowing discord, even if that would be a quintessentially Ascian thing to do. Too predictable and boring for me, at this point. He definitely knew what he was doing, though, when he casually gave away Nidhogg's eyes to Ilberd.

Varis appears to be honourable, even if ruthless. He is definitely guided by a moral compass, unlike Zenos. I'd rather not see him die, yet the Prima Vista plotline did seem to make a point of eulogising the previous Emperor in some regards, whilst Varis is painted as more concerned with marshalling the Empire's resources towards war and keeping potential sources of dissent under control. So I do like your idea, but through a catalyst other than Elidibus.

[Cilia]

The issue with that angle is that Elidibus is a schemer (or as senpai puts it, a snake); he doesn't make direct actions or force things to happen. He nudges, he whispers, he manipulates - leading a military coup sounds extremely out of character for him.

Elidibus doesn't need to lead a coup against Varis. He's already gotten him to insist on binding eikons instead of eliminating them, create supersoldiers capable of using the Echo like Dragon Ball Super's Ultra Instinct at the cost of roughly 100 : 1, and biologically and cybernetically enhance what is implied to be a Garlean child into a cybernetic magitek monstrosity (Inferno) on top of all the other horrific things in Castrum Abania. If a parallel to previous FF antagonists must be made, I rank Varis as closer to President Shinra than Rufus. Lolorito is already fitting the bill of "morally ambiguous male antagonist who is redeemed and lives" (that's an extremely narrow character archetype, by the way) by helping the protagonists for his own ends rather than out of benevolence. Do you believe it realistic for Varis to do the same, given the above things he has directly or indirectly consented to? Why is another character of the same (extremely specific) archetype needed (not that Varis is really morally ambiguous in light of his implicit consent to all of Zenos' horrific experiments)?

... past that, I am going to wait and see what 4.2 brings. The main chunk of it will probably have to do with Yotsuyu, Gosetsu, and be "4.1, Doma Style," but with information from the stinger guesses can gain accuracy.

[Lauront]

The issue with that angle is that Elidibus is a schemer (or as senpai puts it, a snake); he doesn't make direct actions or force things to happen. He nudges, he whispers, he manipulates - leading a military coup sounds extremely out of character for him.

Elidibus doesn't need to lead a coup against Varis. He's already gotten him to insist on binding eikons instead of eliminating them, create supersoldiers capable of using the Echo like Dragon Ball Super's Ultra Instinct at the cost of roughly 100 : 1, and biologically and cybernetically enhance what is implied to be a Garlean child into a cybernetic magitek monstrosity (Inferno) on top of all the other horrific things in Castrum Abania. If a parallel to previous FF antagonists must be made, I rank Varis as closer to President Shinra than Rufus. Lolorito is already fitting the bill of "morally ambiguous male antagonist who is redeemed and lives" (that's an extremely narrow character archetype, by the way) by helping the protagonists for his own ends rather than out of benevolence. Do you believe it realistic for Varis to do the same, given the above things he has directly or indirectly consented to? Why is another character of the same (extremely specific) archetype needed (not that Varis is really morally ambiguous in light of his implicit consent to all of Zenos' horrific experiments)?

... past that, I am going to wait and see what 4.2 brings. The main chunk of it will probably have to do with Yotsuyu, Gosetsu, and be "4.1, Doma Style," but with information from the stinger guesses can gain accuracy.

Yet again, more idle speculation dressed up as fact. We don't know what Elidibus's role in this is yet and the context of Elidibus's words is cryptic, at best. We do know that Aulus was dismissed by the Garlean imperial court and had to seek refuge in Zenos's domain to continue his experiments. Whether Varis allowed for all this to happen under Elidibus's manipulation, or whether it occurred in spite of his knowledge, is not known. I don't doubt we will see the Resonance come back in the future, since it does significantly level the playing field in terms of aetheric capacities for Purebloods, even with the downsides the prototype forms of it might have.

Trust you to try twist Varis's disgust at his son's actions into some kind of negative trait. Naturally, your post is laced with weasel words like "implicit consent", which you know you can't back up because the sole basis for it is a rather short, very cryptic cutscene at the end of the MSQ for SB.

Elidibus has been fairly subtle in his activities, thus far, yet if Thordan was smart enough to see through Lahabrea's schemes, why would Varis not treat Elidibus with similar suspicion? So, if Varis is not really dancing to his tune, and puts up opposition, with Elidibus now bearing Zenos's assumed form, why is it not plausible that he might seek to take a more direct approach? We'll see what Elidibus is up to soon enough and how he intends to achieve it, assuming he has malevolent motives.

[Balipu]

Well if Fordola can be redeemed so can Varis. You are right that Elidibus doesn't really takes matters directly in his own hands. But who knows? Maybe this time it is necessary. Maybe he needs a coup against Varis to push him to do the things he wants. We can only make assumptions. We know what his end goal is. The resurrection of Zodiark. But we can only guess what his current plans are.

[Theodric]

Well, Lolorito counts, sure - but I was more referring to antagonists that aren't already aligned with Eorzea and do not simply become outright defectors where their homeland and people are concerned. Furthermore with how slow a burn the overall Garlean story arc has been I would like to hope that the payoff is going to be a bit more nuanced than a straightforward corruption storyline. I also do not want the Garlean 'Larsa' to be a complete apologist like Aymeric. They need to be, well, Garlean in their attitude but ultimately committed to peace for the benefit of their homeland, people and territories under their care. The British Empire may have lost much of its territory abroad but it did not lose all of its territory and it remains idolised on the world stage to this very day as its associated accents and culture are actively admired.

I imagine Garlemald is much the same in terms of inspiring awe and admiration, especially when factoring in stuff like the Prima Vista and the wonders of Magitek. Imagine how cool it would be if a certain opera from FF6 happens to originate in Garlemald in FF14? At any rate...a story where Garlemald loses everything does not interest me in the slightest. Especially when its people were driven out of their original home before being forced to live in a wasteland that seems to be far bleaker than post-Calamity Coerthas before accounting for the conveniences of Magitek.

Overall, though, with how much love Final Fantasy Tactics and Final Fantasy XII receive in this game I have little doubt that Garlemald will be handled well overall. As an aside, I also hope that we get more clarification as to the state of Regula's family members and Varis' wife/Zenos' mother.

[Fenral]

In conclusion, #GaiusLives. <immediately goes down in a hail of popotofire>

Nonsense. There are references to destiny and overdue returns, which can only mean G'raha Tia is finally coming back.