While it's true that all cards have the same chance of being drawn, getting an AoE Balance is not as likely as getting an AoE Spear, mainly due to the fact that the player is making choices to actively encourage one outcome over the other. This is even more true in 4.X, now that AST has both a move to get more chances for the AoE Balance (Sleeve Draw) and a move to mitigate variance (300/500 potency oGCD from bad cards).
Not that I agree the sentiment that Expanded Balance has nearly full uptime; without doing extensive math, I would guess one every 1.5-2.5 minutes on average is what I tend to observe? Balance is still pretty overpowered within the framework of this game, as you're still looking at an extra 2.5% raid DPS and the fact that it's competing against healer personal DPS, which is the lowest of the three roles.
Raid DPS is the difference between what DPS a party can do WITH that player versus WITHOUT them. It is thus the most accurate measurement of the DPS a job brings. So, yes, the 10% extra damage the raid is doing BELONGS to the AST, because it wouldn't exist without him/her.


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