The Griffin

[Anonymoose]

I feel he will come to be an ally as we get into Ala Mhigo, maybe fighting back against a Garlemald he does not believe in.

Baelsar always did meet his full potential as a character in that uncomfortable gray area between friend and foe. Even when he conspired against Nael van Darnus you knew damn well he had no love for Eorzeans; they remained willfully ignorant, put their faith in false gods, trusted their nations to those with no right to lead, and refused to embrace a strong, structured order.

I also agree that the Griffin's collusion with Elidibus is hefty evidence against the Gaius theory. Plainly, the guy should know better. That's actually part of what drives me nuts about the final scenes, though. When the Griffin speaks to Elidibus, he compares their leadership, pointing out that he has provided the Ala Mhigan Resistance with tangible benefits while (correctly) assuming that the Warriors of Darkness ("your pawns") got nothing of value from him, in the end. He plainly doesn't like or trust Elidibus, as if he has some experience with how Ascian machinations work.

I need to study this patch a bit closer before I comment too much on any of it.
My understanding is still rather vague, the evidence fits from even opposite angles. <furrows brow>

[Belhi]

If it is Ilberd it would explain the doubt. Ilberd likely also would be doing as much as he could to hide since there are some powerful people gunning for him, just not Garleans.

[PArcher]

When the Griffin speaks to Elidibus, he compares their leadership, pointing out that he has provided the Ala Mhigan Resistance with tangible benefits while (correctly) assuming that the Warriors of Darkness ("your pawns") got nothing of value from him, in the end. He plainly doesn't like or trust Elidibus, as if he has some experience with how Ascian machinations work.

Doesn't completely discount Ilberd either; I would assume he, as leader of the Crystal Braves, would have had some sort of briefing on the Ascians, especially concerning Primal summoning. He could have also overheard a lot of discussions without people thinking twice about him

Gaius also knows that the WoL will always oppose the Ascians...and working with them is a sure-fire way to get us on him. We beat him once, with the deck stacked against us...he can't be dumb enough to try it again. Ilberd did outsmart us once (twice if you count his escape as a win of sorts), so he is more confident. Add some Ascian tools to his set, and he may believe he *could* come out ahead in a fight.

[RobinMalvin]

Indeed; while Gridania has a reputation as the "hippie city," they are militant hippies.

It's not nearly as nice as it would seem, given you live and die by the arbitrary whims of the Elementals.

It's not like the refugees don't have skills that can benefit the forest so they're rejected, quite the opposite I believe. It's because like most people outside Gridania, majority of them don't believe in Elementals, that they are nothing but an imaginary beings made up by the 'tree huggers' (keep in mind Elementals ARE NOT elemental sprites). The Elementals and Gridanian reject them because of this, because they don't believe in Elementals, they won't listen to what the Elementals say.

If they're told to not do something because of Elementals' decree, they'll just like 'screw it, I want it' and do the thing they're not supposed to anyway. That can potentially disrupt the balance of the forest and anger the Elementals. They're weak now after calamity, but do you really want to test their patience, after it's proven they can summon another calamity if provoked?

As for the case of a child not given medicine because of Elementals, I have to ask: do we know WHAT illness the child is infected to? Could it be that the child is suffering from something incurable? Could it be if the Elementals granted the medicine, not only it would not cure him but would prolong his suffering, or even worsen his condition? We know only tidbits about the situation after all, not that much to make that far a conclusion.

Back to topic.

The Griffin at this point can just be anyone. But what interests me is that the Griffin is a wanted man by Garlean, so much so it warrants a legion to come after him should he's found. Could it be Gaius then, since they both make same pose. But as other have said, the likelihood he survived the explosion is little to none, and he wouldn't play with Ascian again after his last experience.

I'm reminded of one MSQ back in 1.0 era. Our path companion was revealed to be Ala Mhigan, and associated with a group of Ala Mhigan Resistance. Short story, we got ourselves involved with their operation but everyone dispatched were killed by Gaius, and we and our path companion only survived because of the intervention of Circle of Knowing. After this, our companion was never heard again.

I found it strange that Gaius personally dealt with a bunch of resistance fighters; he was still rank below White Raven back then, but it's still strange. Maybe unlike other resistance groups, this one particular group has enough threat to the Empire. So maybe its leader is the Griffin?

Also, another strange thing is that the Griffin seems to dislike the Scions. Odd he would go so far as to prevent any news of his revolution to reach the Scions. Maybe because he's allied to Ascian?

Edited the 'Black' Raven. Thanks Anonymoose

[Anonymoose]

Doesn't completely discount Ilberd either

Aye, he's the more likely candidate by a vast amount.
It just strikes me as odd that there are further hints.

I found it strange that Gaius personally dealt with a bunch of resistance fighters; he was still rank below Black Raven back then, but it's still strange.

Nael van Darnus and Gaius van Baelsar were both Legati, and I think Gaius earned the rank before he did (no concrete proof, just timing of the fall of Ala Mhigo vs. the Lunar Transmitter incident). So - technically - they were the same rank.

However, after Silvertear Skies (same year as the Lunar Transmitter incident, 5 years after the fall of Ala Mhigo), Gaius' role was kind of diminished. His string of successes had been marred by what was objectively a critical failure. The entire Eorzean campaign was put on halt for ten years. Nael came to the aging emperor with grand plans to undo the stalemate and take Eorzea, so Gaius was put under his command and made to have the XIVth Legion act as support for the VIIth.

But between '62 and '72, Gaius still maintained a Garlean presence in Mor Dhona. It might be that he just happened to be in the area when the Resistance hit, or he might have taken their attempt to steal an airship as them being far too confident and struck personally and decisively to dissuade further action.

[Cilia]

What it boils down to is that by living in Gridania, humans are subjecting themselves to nonhuman morality. Gridania is not a free nation - their only freedom is the ability to leave - and I could never abide that. I understand why, but I still don't agree with it.

I was speaking hypothetically and in very black and white terms. Very cut and dry. A child has a terminal illness or fatal wound and a conjurer can completely heal them, but the Elementals say no. It's well-known in Gridania and the Twelveswood that the Elementals' decisions cannot be appealed to. Do you let the child die? (This isn't even entirely hypothetical - there's a couple begging a conjurer to aid their 12 year old daughter outside the Conjurer's Guild. Draw what conclusions you will.)

Back on topic, the Griffin working with Elidibus is probably solid evidence he's not Gaius, given the the legate's track record with the Ascians. However it should be noted that Elidibus is very atypical of the Ascians, favoring subtle manipulation to outright brute force as Lahabrea employed. The Griffin seems quite scathing in his criticism of Elidibus' handling of the Warriors of Darkness, but that's all I managed to take from that scene besides Elidibus' description of the Griffin's character.

At the same time, Ilberd had to have been charismatic to sway enough Crystal Braves to the Monetarists' side. It's unlikely he was the only plant by Lolorito, but even so he was able to get enough Braves to turn tail to stage a coup in Ul'dah, Limsa, and Mor Dhona simultaneously. The fact Ilberd is now a wanted man would also explain the Griffin's highly secretive MO - he masks himself, uses proxies, and confiscates mail to avoid word of his activities getting out because he knows that if anyone knew where he was and what he was doing, they'd come down on him like white on rice. It's not just Yda and Papalymo's mail not getting out - if you go chat with Meffrid in Quarrymill now he says he's heard about the Griffin, how he's impressed that he gets results despite his secretive MO, and that some of his men have joined him, but he has not heard from them in "some time."

... I really don't think it's Gaius - that's a rather improbable conclusion that feels like it's making the evidence fit its mold, rather than the other way around. The Griffin has to be either Ilberd, someone we've met before but can scarce remember like the False Griffin, or someone we've never met at all.

[PArcher]

The Griffin has to be (...) someone we've met before but can scarce remember like the False Griffin (...)

If not Ilberd, it has to be someone (some sort of Hyur male too) who has a grudge against us. So that narrows it down even further.

I really need to find time to go through the MSQ on one of my dummy alts.

[Bloody]

It is interesting to note that whoever it is, Papalymo knows. What kind of person he regrets giving the mask to, or would even be willing to help conceal the identity of in the first place, could potentially shake up the contenders a bit. However, since Papalymo knows, I would assume that any two-bit character is out of the question. It is either one of the current two main speculations, or someone from Yda's past (the King of Ruin? unlikely. Her relative, or the lost prince? I digress).

[PArcher]

It is interesting to note that whoever it is, Papalymo knows. What kind of person he regrets giving the mask to, or would even be willing to help conceal the identity of in the first place, could potentially shake up the contenders a bit. However, since Papalymo knows, I would assume that any two-bit character is out of the question. It is either one of the current two main speculations, or someone from Yda's past (the King of Ruin? unlikely. Her relative, or the lost prince? I digress).

I thought he was referring to Yda's mask in that conversation...

[Cilia]

If not Ilberd, it has to be someone (some sort of Hyur male too) who has a grudge against us. So that narrows it down even further.

While it is... reasonably safe to assume the Griffin is an Ala Mhigan Hyur Highlander (he has a similar build and skintone to the False Griffin, though it's hard to make out because the cutscene where the two are side by side is always at night), we don't yet know if his grudge is just with the Garleans or if he also has personal beef with us.

It is interesting to note that whoever it is, Papalymo knows. What kind of person he regrets giving the mask to, or would even be willing to help conceal the identity of in the first place, could potentially shake up the contenders a bit. However, since Papalymo knows, I would assume that any two-bit character is out of the question. It is either one of the current two main speculations, or someone from Yda's past (the King of Ruin? unlikely. Her relative, or the lost prince? I digress).

Ihh? How do we know Papalymo knows?