The Griffin

[Starkbeaumont]

as mentioned in the other thread my money is on gaius

[Cilia]

I treat this kind of thing as detective work as it should be treated. I don't rule out possibilities, but try and gauge whether something is plausible or probable. The list of suspects are:

1. Ilberd. A highly ambitious man passionately driven to reclaim Ala Mhigo. Highly secretive given he is no longer welcome in Eorzean society after the debacle in Ul'dah, masks himself, hides, and uses proxies to evade both Eorzean officials and Garleans. Also has the Masks screen mail to avoid word of their activities getting out. Elidibus' description when handing over the Eyes ("A man of boundless rage and bottomless despair, in whose breast beats a heart which thirsts for vengeance.") suits Ilberd quite well. (Probable, though I am admittedly biased towards this suspect because I still want to give him more comeuppance for betraying us and dismembering my General.)

2. Gaius van Baelsar. A lot of dialogue referring to the Griffin suggests he's highly wanted by the Garleans, and a reason for his mask is speculated to be scarring. The Garleans certainly would be after him given the XIVth went rogue after the Calamity, and hiding his face would be paramount since, as a Garlean, there's no other way he could get the Ala Mhigans to work with him. All the other pieces fit, and yet a motive (beyond "It used to be mine and I want it back") is missing. Gaius was also in the exploding Praetorium with no escape route. (Plausible, but improbable.)

3. Unknown. As we've seen here, even seemingly insignificant sidequest characters can become important, and there are a lot of Ala Mhigan refugees we've helped. It's a reasonably safe assumption that anyone still around is not the Griffin, but beyond that... who knows.

4. New Character. Someone we've never met before. Even relying on his build is not an accurate clue; we can rule out Lalafell, Roegadyn, Au Ra, and Miqo'te for various reasons, leaving Hyur, Elezen, and Garlean. New characters gotta be introduced too, y'know!

[moleverine]

My money is on Ilberd. He fits a lot of the personality descriptions they use, he has a strong reason bordering on (probably exceeding) obsession for wanting to take Ala Mhigo back, is an Ala Mhigan himself and would have likely had ties with many members of the pre-existing Ala Mhigan Resistance. That said, I kind of hope that it's actually Gaius. Ilberd isn't a very compelling character in general, while Gaius was compelling as an antagonist once you got a chance to learn more about his motivations and would actually make a halfway sympathetic protagonist depending on how the story is framed. We may be fighting alongside The Griffin or against him, and I think Gaius would be better in either role.

[Chewy2nd]

Note: Just listing evidence, not trying to refute. Speculate, speculate, speculate.

If you go by the "you made some medicine that saved my life at Quarrymill" thing, the identity of the False Griffin is Gallien from the quest He Ain't Heavy.

As for the True Griffin, the primary clues all point towards Ilberd. The journal even uses the same phrasing - the Griffin would do anything to liberate Ala Mhigo. Elidibus says he's possessed of only his rage and thirst for vengeance. If the game wants us to look in any direction, it's towards him.

But I noticed some interesting bits in other references to the Griffin. Some say he has no face but for the scars. Some say he's marked for death by Garlemald. Some say that, were his position known, it would draw a legion. All agree, however, that he's a natural leader; a charismatic man able to sway almost anyone to his cause.

That sounds a lot like someone else with know who'd have an axe to grind with Garlemald's present course. Someone who, for all of his successes, was driven to the margins of influence, made lapdog to a tempered maniac, and left with no homeland support and he took a rogue tilt at Eorzea. And the new Emperor seeks to not annihilate eikons, but bind them, as if their previous course wasn't already going off the rails. And while the Griffin brags about the power he will bring to bear against the Empire, Nero tol Scavea stands above the ruins of the Omega Weapon.

Red herrings, all? Maybe. (Probably.)

But ... again ... speculate, speculate, speculate.

Not to mention, the False Griffin was speaking about there being a new Legate, and him not being as forgiving as the previous one. Seems interesting that they would reference Gaius.

[Belhi]

Indeed; while Gridania has a reputation as the "hippie city," they are militant hippies.

It's not nearly as nice as it would seem, given you live and die by the arbitrary whims of the Elementals.

The Elementals don't have arbitrary whims. Its just their priorities are fundamentally different. Personally I think the only reason the Poachers get away with being there is the weakened state of the Elementals currently and the difficulty the Twin Adder has rooting them out.

On the Griffin, I agree that the most likely candidates are Ilberd and Gaius. I don't see either really being a friendly in the long run. Both offer some really interesting story directions. Honestly though I would be surprised for Gaius to work with an Ascian again. On the Resistance front, I find it interesting that the Corpse Brigade seems to have been integrated into Griffin's forces. Sounds like Griffin is taking almost anyone who is actually willing to fight Garlemald.

[jedidotflow]

On a side note, if the antagonist in 4.0 is Griffin, I'm glad I got the guts to stick with DRK as main.

[Cilia]

The Elementals don't have arbitrary whims. Its just their priorities are fundamentally different.

The problem is that when those priorities clash, the Gridanians always defer to the Elementals. They have to. In day to day life it's not so bad, but in a hypothetical scenario where, say, a kid is dying and you have medicine that would save said kid, but the Elementals say not to... could you let him die?

It's not cooperation as they would have you believe. It's dictatorship - the Elementals have the final call, always.

The divide is most apparent in Quarrymill, honestly, with the Ala Mhigan refugees seeking sanctuary only to have most of them turned back. There's a refugee who is glad to be able to stay but heartbroken at the same time because her friends and family can't, and a Wood Wailer on the ramparts who describes himself as a "bloodless demon" for having to turn away the vast majority of the refugees (though he admits he has no real guilt over doing so, since it's for the benefit Twelveswood and by extension Gridania).

... while the Ala Mhigan refugees do excuse a lot of crimes with "For Ala Mhigo!" and do boneheaded things, when their situation is that hopeless it's kind of hard to blame them... but I'm getting off topic...

[Belhi]

The thing with the Elementals is the Twelveswood is their home and so their rules. Its not like anyone is forced to live there. I'm not saying that makes it much relief for refugees but that is the risk you take choosing to live in the Twelveswood. The fact that the Ala Mhigans don't understand that is quite probably why the elementals have a habit of being very selective on who lives there. If your a Refugee and you choose to take refugee in the Twelveswood your taking that risk. Frankly the fact the Elementals tolerate anyone living in the Twelveswood at this point is a concession on their part.

[Cilia]

The thing is the Ala Mhigan refugees don't have much of a choice... they don't have a home anymore. They're desperate for anywhere that will take them, and to be arbitrarily told no and given no explanation as to why or how they can become worthy is kicking them while they're down. Not that the Elementals care, since tolerating mortals being there at all is a concession on their part.

But, uhh... you kind of made my point for me. To sum it up man is not the master of his own fate in the Twelveswood, and thus it is not really a nice place to live despite all the greenery.

Well, enough digression. I stand by my original deduction on the Griffin's identity, which basically boils down to "Probably Ilberd, plausibly Gaius but unlikely, otherwise someone new."

[Belhi]

The thing is the Ala Mhigan refugees don't have much of a choice... they don't have a home anymore. They're desperate for anywhere that will take them, and to be arbitrarily told no and given no explanation as to why or how they can become worthy is kicking them while they're down. Not that the Elementals care, since tolerating mortals being there atall is a concession on their part.

But, uhh... you kind of made my point for me. To sum it up man is not the master of his own fate in the Twelveswood, and thus it is not really a nice place to live despite all the greenery.

Well, enough digression. I stand by my original deduction on the Griffin's identity, which basically boils down to "Probably Ilberd, plausibly Gaius but unlikely, otherwise someone new."

Well yeah, I guess I do. I guess I was nit-picking cause you said arbitrary whims.

Someone in my FC asked me if I would like to live in Eorzea and I gave a firm no. Even if you hung around the 'safest' areas, ie. the cities, there really isn't anywhere where your not going to be dealing with one major issue or another. Elementals, Pirate, Religious Zealots or an Oligarchy. I think Revenant's Toll would be the most likely place simply because it's well defended and relatively free as long as you pull your weight. There is also Idylshire but considering the spire that town is built on my basic grasp of physics would make me feel very unsafe living there.