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  1. #1
    Player
    worldofneil's Avatar
    Join Date
    Aug 2013
    Posts
    2,650
    Character
    Scott Pilgrim
    World
    Omega
    Main Class
    White Mage Lv 100
    Sorry to hear about your bad rolls, but random is random. There's nothing they can do to change it as then it wouldn't be random... (and if they did, what about the other 7 people and their rolls?)
    (3)

  2. #2
    Player Kaurie's Avatar
    Join Date
    Apr 2015
    Posts
    2,427
    Character
    Kaurie Lorhart
    World
    Leviathan
    Main Class
    Summoner Lv 80
    Quote Originally Posted by worldofneil View Post
    There's nothing they can do to change it as then it wouldn't be random... (and if they did, what about the other 7 people and their rolls?)
    They can change it to not be random - or have fail safes. Someone, for example, suggested that 99 totems that drop anyway (currently used for weapons) can be used to purchase the whistle.
    (6)

  3. #3
    Player
    Rebellius555's Avatar
    Join Date
    Mar 2015
    Posts
    26
    Character
    Kogami Shinya
    World
    Shiva
    Main Class
    Pugilist Lv 60
    Quote Originally Posted by Kaurie View Post
    They can change it to not be random - or have fail safes. Someone, for example, suggested that 99 totems that drop anyway (currently used for weapons) can be used to purchase the whistle.
    This is what I wanted to refer to, but the character limit wouldn't let me. Well, they managed to do something like that for Savage already. You either get your drop or a page which you can later trade for your desired item.

    I also spotted something weird in all this. Ever noticed someone always rolls above 90 for a primal mount? I have not seen a single person winning it with 72 or 85 for example. Another thing is that I never ever actually seen someone rolling a perfect 100.
    (1)

  4. #4
    Player Kaurie's Avatar
    Join Date
    Apr 2015
    Posts
    2,427
    Character
    Kaurie Lorhart
    World
    Leviathan
    Main Class
    Summoner Lv 80
    Quote Originally Posted by Rebellius555 View Post
    This is what I wanted to refer to, but the character limit wouldn't let me. Well, they managed to do something like that for Savage already. You either get your drop or a page which you can later trade for your desired item.

    I also spotted something weird in all this. Ever noticed someone always rolls above 90 for a primal mount? I have not seen a single person winning it with 72 or 85 for example. Another thing is that I never ever actually seen someone rolling a perfect 100.
    I believe the first mount I've ever won was with a 27. I think it's just statistics though. Chances are 1 in 10 that a person will roll between 90 and 100, and there are 8 people rolling. I don't feel like doing the maths, but that seems like decent odds that someone will roll above 90.
    (2)

  5. #5
    Player
    PirateCat's Avatar
    Join Date
    Jul 2015
    Posts
    235
    Character
    Leopold Sidney
    World
    Coeurl
    Main Class
    Alchemist Lv 80
    Quote Originally Posted by Kaurie View Post
    I believe the first mount I've ever won was with a 27. I think it's just statistics though. Chances are 1 in 10 that a person will roll between 90 and 100, and there are 8 people rolling. I don't feel like doing the maths, but that seems like decent odds that someone will roll above 90.
    Any given player has a 10/99 chance of rolling a 90 or higher (since 100 and 0 aren't possible results for a need/greed roll.) The odds of at least one person rolling 90 or more are the inverse of the odds that no one rolls that high. 1 - (89/99)^8 = roughly a 57.3% chance that at least one person rolls 90 or higher if everyone rolls for it. The probability increases slightly if multiple people can't roll the same value.

    So it's fairly common for someone to roll 90 or more. If it happens every time then that's possibly a bit suspect, but anecdotal reports of this could be attributable to small sample size and/or confirmation bias.
    (3)

  6. #6
    Player
    Jamillion's Avatar
    Join Date
    Sep 2014
    Location
    Uldah
    Posts
    612
    Character
    Calypso Celeste
    World
    Lamia
    Main Class
    Archer Lv 60
    Quote Originally Posted by Rebellius555 View Post
    This is what I wanted to refer to, but the character limit wouldn't let me. Well, they managed to do something like that for Savage already. You either get your drop or a page which you can later trade for your desired item.

    I also spotted something weird in all this. Ever noticed someone always rolls above 90 for a primal mount? I have not seen a single person winning it with 72 or 85 for example. Another thing is that I never ever actually seen someone rolling a perfect 100.
    You can't roll 100, it only goes from 1-99 (with 0 being reserved for passes.)
    (2)

  7. #7
    Player
    MrPresident's Avatar
    Join Date
    Mar 2016
    Posts
    329
    Character
    Casper Colt
    World
    Cerberus
    Main Class
    Summoner Lv 90
    Quote Originally Posted by Rebellius555 View Post
    This is what I wanted to refer to, but the character limit wouldn't let me. Well, they managed to do something like that for Savage already. You either get your drop or a page which you can later trade for your desired item.

    I also spotted something weird in all this. Ever noticed someone always rolls above 90 for a primal mount? I have not seen a single person winning it with 72 or 85 for example. Another thing is that I never ever actually seen someone rolling a perfect 100.
    I won a Rose Lanner with a 79, and saw someone before that win with 59.
    (0)

  8. #8
    Player
    Kurogaea's Avatar
    Join Date
    Nov 2014
    Posts
    1,365
    Character
    Raifu Kurogaea
    World
    Gilgamesh
    Main Class
    Conjurer Lv 80
    Quote Originally Posted by worldofneil View Post
    Sorry to hear about your bad rolls, but random is random. There's nothing they can do to change it as then it wouldn't be random... (and if they did, what about the other 7 people and their rolls?)
    Consolation for participation. Run it 10 times (without achieving your weekly item drop) to get items called scraps to trade in for a specific drop you want. Maybe scrap pieces of midas 1-4 for a gobbie who happens to find these weekly drops on his excavations. grinding for scraps will be halted after achieving the max number of 10 scraps or attaining the daily part from the 1 floor. No reason to not have it this way to begin with actually. -_-
    (4)
    Last edited by Kurogaea; 03-24-2016 at 01:51 AM.

  9. #9
    Player
    worldofneil's Avatar
    Join Date
    Aug 2013
    Posts
    2,650
    Character
    Scott Pilgrim
    World
    Omega
    Main Class
    White Mage Lv 100
    Quote Originally Posted by Kurogaea View Post
    No reason to not have it this way to begin with actually. -_-
    Right now for for items that drop 100% (or very frequently) you have a chance of getting what you want on the first run. But if they change things to always use a token system, people will be forced to run that content X times to get the same item. We're all unlucky with some drops, but at the same time I'm sure we've also all got something on our first try as well... do you really want to lose that chance?

    Yes they could make it so you get the drop randomly OR after X runs, but SE are not going to want to do that, they want people to keep running the content (partly to stop people complaining about slow duty finder/no one running it, but also because they want people to be have a reason to stay subscribed/something to do).

    Sure it'd be nice if the drop rates were higher, but where would the fun be if we got everything in a few weeks?
    (2)

  10. #10
    Player
    Arrius's Avatar
    Join Date
    Mar 2014
    Posts
    1,172
    Character
    Mirn Armaya
    World
    Shiva
    Main Class
    Gunbreaker Lv 100
    Quote Originally Posted by worldofneil View Post
    Sure it'd be nice if the drop rates were higher, but where would the fun be if we got everything in a few weeks?
    That depends of how the path is set to require the items.
    If you get the gear only by rolling against 7 others which have the same need as you, then you are in for a long ride of frustrations.

    Done about 15 runs of A5 yesterday, about half of of the time there were two bolts in the chests. I have gotten not. a. single. one. of. them. due to my rolls being much lower than 50.

    That stuff just drains the motivation and fun out of it.
    (2)

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