How likely is Alex savage to be nerfed.

[Rivaru]

I don't see them tweaking the fights like they did with the original T7. Likewise, I don't see them adding echo for it... Over-gearing (above the ilvl reward) the fight is probably the "nerf" that the encounter will get in the future much like SCoB Savage. If the concern is getting the upgrade materials, they'll probably put it in a different content for people to obtain them from.

[zosia]

The simple answer is yes

people won't stick around for it. If I was in that situation, I would definitely leave the game.

How is that destroying their progression? By mid-october most players will have a fair amount of Eso gear, if raiders still aren't able to complete the floor they're on (or hit a wall as some might say) the 210 gear will help them break down that wall and progress further.

It spoils the challenge. No raid team wants to be the guys who got their clears after any perceivable "nerfs." A lot of raiders see the loot pinata that WoD is as an indirect nerf via over gearing since gear progression is highly increased at that point. The last two fights in alex savage take a very long time to learn, even for server 1st groups. There are going to be people pushing for their 1st a4s kills in the next month or two. Why would you want to take that away from them? Do people really need their 210 gear at the start of 3.1 if they are not raiding?

If SE is smart, they should at least wait until most servers have 1-3 groups killing a4s before giving out upgrade items in void ark

[Fynlar]

Gear will not make a3s and a4s much more easier. Those fights are full of instant wipe mechanics and require more coordination than anything else. You could be an ilvl 300 raid group and the mechanics in a3s could still easily wipe your group.

Those are everywhere in Coil and they didn't really do anything about most of those, particularly the ones in T5/9/13.

[zosia]

Those are everywhere in Coil and they didn't really do anything about most of those, particularly the ones in T5/9/13.

Yeah, but they still gave it echo, and some 1-shot mechanics are nerfed in 2nd coil. So, things were nerfed, considerably. The big difference between then and now is that plenty of people were clearing all of coils. Savage alex is going to see a much lower clear rates and SE is going to have to respond some how. Alex N cannot sustain 90%ish of the player base for end game. We need more than just face roll content.

[Ultimatecalibur]

The old argument then was that raiders already had access to the gear and that CT was the "catch-up" patch. When 3.1 drops, there is going to be no catch up needed since alex savage will still be current content. I don't see hundreds and hundreds of statics getting clears by mid october, why would Yoshida choose to destroy those people's progression by showering everyone with 210 gear?

I think you are hoping for way too much if you want twines before most raiders can get them.

I'm actually making my guess based off how they have previously done the upgrade system since 2.2/2.3.

In 2.2 both SCoB and a new level on tomestone gear (Soldiery/Gerolt's Masterworks) were added which could be upgraded with the Sands of Time/Oil of Time tokens. During 2.2 the only source of the upgrade tokens and the token needed to purchase the weathered weapons was SCoB. During 2.2 the max ilevel you could reach was i100 unless you did SCoB which would allow you to get to i110. In 2.3, Syrcus Tower and "The Hunt" were added, both of which you could get Sands of Time and Oils of Time, in addition to SCoB which was still the top level content.

In 2.4/2.5 this was (mostly) repeated for the Ironworks Gear: 2.4 FCoB was the only source of the tokens, 2.5 they where rewards from hunts and doing CT/WoD (no longer a straight drop, now a weekly quest reward for doing all 3 24 man raids).

You also seem to misunderstand what people mean by the term "catch up patch." Due to the fact that BCoB and CT were released in reverse of how they were initially planned to (CT was intended to be in 2.0 and BCoB was to be in 2.1, but something caused CT to be delayed making them release BCoB early) the devs decided to roll with it and started doing 2 patch +20 ilevel cycles instead of each patch increasing ilevel by roughly 10. In this new 2 patch cycle system, even numbered patches (2.2/2.4) increase the max ilevel by 20 but only the hardcore raiders could reach that number, everyone else was limited to an increase of only 10 ilevels. Odd numbered patches allowed the general population to "catch up" to the raiders and be on an even footing when the next patch cycle started.

In 3.0, the raiding max is i210 and the general population max ilevel is i200. In 3.1, the raiding max will stay i210 and the general population max will increase to i210. They are doing this so that they can plan 3.2 content for an ilevel of 210 instead of having a 10 ilevel gap between raiders and the general population.

[zosia]

I'm actually making my guess based off how they have previously done the upgrade system since 2.2/2.3.

In 2.2 both SCoB and a new level on tomestone gear (Soldiery/Gerolt's Masterworks) were added which could be upgraded with the Sands of Time/Oil of Time tokens. During 2.2 the only source of the upgrade tokens and the token needed to purchase the weathered weapons was SCoB. During 2.2 the max ilevel you could reach was i100 unless you did SCoB which would allow you to get to i110. In 2.3, Syrcus Tower and "The Hunt" were added, both of which you could get Sands of Time and Oils of Time, in addition to SCoB which was still the top level content.

In 2.4/2.5 this was (mostly) repeated for the Ironworks Gear: 2.4 FCoB was the only source of the tokens, 2.5 they where rewards from hunts and doing CT/WoD (no longer a straight drop, now a weekly quest reward for doing all 3 24 man raids).

You also seem to misunderstand what people mean by the term "catch up patch." Due to the fact that BCoB and CT were released in reverse of how they were initially planned to (CT was intended to be in 2.0 and BCoB was to be in 2.1, but something caused CT to be delayed making them release BCoB early) the devs decided to roll with it and started doing 2 patch +20 ilevel cycles instead of each patch increasing ilevel by roughly 10. In this new 2 patch cycle system, even numbered patches (2.2/2.4) increase the max ilevel by 20 but only the hardcore raiders could reach that number, everyone else was limited to an increase of only 10 ilevels. Odd numbered patches allowed the general population to "catch up" to the raiders and be on an even footing when the next patch cycle started.

In 3.0, the raiding max is i210 and the general population max ilevel is i200. In 3.1, the raiding max will stay i210 and the general population max will increase to i210. They are doing this so that they can plan 3.2 content for an ilevel of 210 instead of having a 10 ilevel gap between raiders and the general population.

Why would they bring the general population to ilvl210 when a fraction, less than 1%, of the player base will be ilvl210 by the time they release 3.1? Raiders who worked very hard to even get 206, 207, or 208 won't even get the time to appreciate 209 or 210 before its the status quo. You don't see an intrinsic problem with that? It was fine in ARR, raiders would be decked out in raid gear and upgraded items when the catch up patch dropped. In this case, people will be lucky to get a full savage clear before 3.1.

It would not kill the general population to wait one more month after 3.1 for Void ark to get the upgrade items. There is literally zero reasons a player needs to be ilvl210 now or after 3.1, including raiders.

[KarstenS]

Why would they bring the general population to ilvl210

Because, they have done it before and will continue their way.

At release, the tome gear was out of the box max iLvl. The need for upgrading gear got introduced with SCoB first.

[SpookyGhost]

If you're doing Savage for the gear then you're deluding yourself a bit, tbh.

Anyway, there's no real "reason" to nerf it, especially if they put the upgrade items in Void Ark at whatever point. Gear itself should sort it out, maybe further down the line they'll add echo but I doubt they'll change anything mechnically. More DPS alone makes fights like A1S, A2S, and A4S extremely easier (A3S is a bit of a special case, but more DPS still eases the last phase a lot). If they did add echo and you wanted to challenge it at it's original difficulty, you could just click off echo. As long as nerfs don't come, it honestly doesn't matter.

[Khalithar]

Why would they bring the general population to ilvl210 when a fraction, less than 1%, of the player base will be ilvl210 by the time they release 3.1?

It gives people that farmed the 210 an advantage going in to the next content. I mean look at what happened, they brought the esoteric gear out before anyone could even get a full Alexander set. I'm quite certain that Ark is going to drop 210's or higher in addition to esoteric upgrade items.

[KarstenS]

I mean look at what happened, they brought the esoteric gear out before anyone could even get a full Alexander set.

Don't know how long you play that game. But that tome gear with same final iLvl got always released together with the new raid tier.

Void Ark will drop i200.