Real Math and Sq Enix Math - the twain shall never meet

[Bishop81]

This is why it's rather common to see strings of 5x fails when statistically that should only happen once in a blue moon.

You are assuming the 5x fails in a roll will be "spaced out" ... that's not how randomness works.

[Kyros]

You are assuming the 5x fails in a roll will be "spaced out" ... that's not how randomness works.

No actually, that is exactly how it should work, averaged over time. You can calculate how often does X scenario should present itself fairly easily. If it isn't behaving as expected, then your seed has a bias and is not truly random.

Also, RNG seeds can have quirks to them, because again: not truly random. Take for example this number sets: 25 50 75, and 50 50 50 repeat over and over. Both average to 50 and you can say that both are truly random, but one of them is not really functioning as a RNG for our purposes.

[Bishop81]

No actually, that is exactly how it should work, averaged over time. You can calculate how often does X scenario should present itself fairly easily. If it isn't behaving as expected, then your seed has a bias and is not truly random.

Also, RNG seeds can have quirks to them, because again: not truly random. Take for example this number sets: 25 50 75, and 50 50 50 repeat over and over. Both average to 50 and both and you can say that both are truly random, but one of them is not really functioning as a RNG for our purposes.

Random by definition means "no pattern". Having the 5x fails in a roll spaced out as a characteristic would be a pattern.

[Kyros]

Random by definition means "no pattern". Having the 5x fails in a roll spaced out as a characteristic would be a pattern.

Exactly. Gosh. If you are finding patterns in your Random seed, then it really isn't random. They don't have to be spaced out, they can be wherever they damn want, as long as they fall within what's expected. That's why normality curves exists. If you are constantly having outliers outside your standard deviation, then your seed isn't working properly. it's as simple as that.

Here, a simple Wolfram example. Chance of 5 failures in a row is 1 in 3125. OP here had it happen in >500 touches. Likewise, chance of 3 fails in a row is 0.8%, or 1 in 125, and OP had it happen 19 times. I can't say much about the 5 failures since that requires a much bigger sample size, but the 3 fails in a row is such a huge outlier that really makes me question the seed working as intended.

On second thought, it seems he used no SHII, and I have no idea which touch skill he was using, so disregard that math.