Real Math and Sq Enix Math - the twain shall never meet

[LunaHoshino]

Meanwhile, I've HQed multiple things at 1 or 2%. Random truly is random; sometimes it's in your favor, sometimes it's not.

[Makado]

Yeah I agree it doesn't feel like it corresponds to the % very well. Before I bad 650 GP I missed like 1 out of 6 of my collectables at least every single gather, no joke. At 95% its kinda like um ok. So now me and my friends just joke if it isn't 100% then its 50% chance no matter where your % is. Don't even get me started on hasty touch...

[Makado]

Meanwhile, I've HQed multiple things at 1 or 2%. Random truly is random; sometimes it's in your favor, sometimes it's not.

I take more issue with the times it happens in a row. How many times have you HQ your 2% item in a row? Likely never. Yet I see multiple fails of 2 and 3 in a row very often at 95%+. While yes it is that same chance every time, the odds to lose that many times in succession from a true rng situation is extremely unlikely.

[Xerius]

Still love the game heaps, but how about revamping the crafting/gathering interface with accurate percentages!

Someone correct me if I'm wrong, my stat skills are a bit rusty, but with a sample size that big and a confidence level of 99% that only leaves a margin of error of +/- 3.4% meaning that your data backs up the fact that the numbers we're seeing aren't close to the actual numbers. That, or you're some sort of extreme outlier. It leads me to believe that similar to crafting there's some sort of curve.

[Bishop81]

You know, even if SE's RNG is bugged (i.e. not truly as random as it should be), there is a very good chance that there is only one RNG that is shared among all the players per server.

In other words, the timing of your "attempt" also affects the numbers you get as other players are also drawing from the same RNG, adding yet another layer of randomness to the roll.

[LynxAlexander]

My worst luck by far has been 22 fails in a row on a 40% materia meld. I was actually super amazed after 10 fails and just kept getting more amazed with every fail......by 22 it was like wow.....just wow lol. I have also failed 50+ TIV STR materia melds in a row at 10% or 11%, I forget which exactly but I literally stopped counting after 50......might have been 60 or more!

[LynxAlexander]

Also at the other end of the spectrum I 5x melded a chivalric coat of fending with only 3 fails total with 3 T4's and 2 T3's........and right after I 5x melded a chivalric coat of maiming with 5x t4's with only 2 fails........5 fails total. I also hq'd the coat at 9%, luckiest coat ever, or so I thought. The very next day they added new gear with a patch making it go from best in slot to trash and it's been on the market for dirt cheap for like a month lol.

[Sartori]

[QUOTE=Mallea;324786 I've noticed a significant disparity in the stated "success" percentages and real outcomes someone at SE needs to take a course in Binomial Probability. After farming 990 Rosewood logs today, that 93% success rate was suspiciously close to 78% -- and the likelihood of three successive failures (at 93%) is astronomical; yet, it happened seven times. Still love the game heaps, but how about revamping the crafting/gathering interface with accurate percentages![/QUOTE]


Oh yeah I aggree 100% oh wait that would be 70% SE match. I swear I think they still use an Abacus to figure these percentages. And I don't even have to keep track of stats to know there's something screwy with it. I can tell just by gathering every day...you guys always blame this on rng well SE's rng is messed up too then. When I go and gather an item that has 55% hq rate along with an extra attempt and I don't get one hq item and the next node is 15% and I get 4 in a row...yeah....