Bard - they broke my job

[Aiselia]

Your only rebuttal is to reveal your ignorance of how statistical evidence works?

Statistical evidence isn't irrefutable, though.

Let's say there's 5 million people playing the game.

11,000 voted in the poll. 4,989,000 didn't. That's a lot of people to ignore because your poll of significantly limited scope says one thing.

The only irrefutable evidence would be something official from SE stating what people have been playing.

[justinjarjar]

Statistical evidence isn't irrefutable, though.

Let's say there's 5 million people playing the game.

11,000 voted in the poll. 4,989,000 didn't. That's a lot of people to ignore because your poll of significantly limited scope says one thing.

The only irrefutable evidence would be something official from SE stating what people have been playing.

It does not actually work that way, having everyone vote would be too slow and the poll would have different results before the poll ended not to mention the lack of participation. You need enough numbers to show a good subset of the population then you equate for % +/-. That is the proven best way to have a legitimate poll with real numbers.

[Greywolfamakir]

Hi !

A lot of Bards from 2.X are playing other jobs, like DRG, MNK, BLM, NIN or SMN because WM is not what they expected, but I dont know people playing BRD like new main job to be honest, I mean, a lot of "old" BRDs are rerolling to other Job, but there are not a lot poeple starting HS like BRD or MCH mainly. This is not a fact, it's what I see.

[Aiselia]

It does not actually work that way

Indisputability doesn't work that way. If it's indisputable, then there must be absolutely zero room for error.

However, as we look at the polls....

One poll's top 3 played is DRG, WHM, PLD, in that order.

The other is WHM, DRG, SCH, in that order.

While both have DRG and WHM in the top 2, their order is reversed, and third place is different.

Also, one has BRD beating only AST and MCH, while the other has BRD beating NIN, BLM, and MCH.

One of these polls is, therefore, factually incorrect.

Since one of the two polls is incorrect, that makes its accuracy clearly less than 100% accurate, which then also calls into question the accuracy of the other poll, if one poll can be inaccurate, thus making it disputable.

And that's how disputability works.

[justinjarjar]

.

And where did I say his poll worked? I simply said that having a poll of every player is unrealistic and that as long as you had a good subset of polled people and questions with a clear %+/- based on amount of population you can have good results that you can use. I agree the poll is too narrow and over all does not show significant change.

[Aiselia]

And where did I say his poll worked?

Where did I say you did?

All I said was that his polls weren't indisputable and that the only indisputable evidence about class spread would be official evidence from SE, who could give accurate numbers based on the game, rather than a subset of people that don't necessarily represent the whole.

You then told me it doesn't work like that. And that's why I explained how indisputability works.

[justinjarjar]

Where did I say you did?

All I said was that his polls weren't indisputable and that the only indisputable evidence about class spread would be official evidence from SE, who could give accurate numbers based on the game, rather than a subset of people that don't necessarily represent the whole.

You then told me it doesn't work like that. And that's why I explained how indisputability works.

cool so we agree.... I was pointing out that your reason to claim it was not a valid poll was incorrect. At this point I am wasting posts, anything can be true by accident to get real numbers for a poll there is already many policies that allow someone to get accurate numbers that can show significant change and correlations, without it you have a list, which does not show anything.

[Aiselia]

I was pointing out that your reason to claim it was not a valid poll was incorrect.

I didn't say it wasn't valid. I said it wasn't indisputable. For all I know, the percentages on (one of) the polls is completely accurate. But I wouldn't say it's indisputable because there's a chance it might be.

[Zyrusticae]

Also, one has BRD beating only AST and MCH, while the other has BRD beating NIN, BLM, and MCH.

That particular discrepancy is easily explained by the fact that the amount of effort required to fill out an entire survey and the amount of effort required to click a check box on a poll are completely different (hence, also, the large discrepancy in overall number of responses). In that case we can simply defer to the simpler poll as a more accurate representation of the player base. The more detailed poll still gives us a very interesting picture of how the player base is responding to the expansion, however, particularly in terms of what they liked and what they didn't like.

The fact that MCH is at the very bottom of every single poll certainly says something. BRD being so close to the bottom every time instead of at the very top like they used to be also says something. Whether or not you take these polls as 100% fact, they still serve as very useful barometers of where the player base stands.

Mind you, when I say it is "indisputable" that there is a problem, I mean it. You can quibble over the accuracy of these polls all you want to. The fact remains that the difference between before Heavensward and after Heavensward is HUGE regardless of what sources you use.

I also have to mention that I never claimed 100% accuracy, just very close to it, which is what the whole point of probability and sample size confidence levels are for. A very high confidence level is still enough to render dispute largely pointless. You're not going to be able to take a survey with a sample so biased that it turns the results around. That's just not going to happen.

[justinjarjar]

It still proves nothing. Let alone WM is the reason there are less players playing bard. Many people picked up the new classes or chnaged to better meet their statics needs. Idk how you think the polls prove anything it is like saying the les pirates there are the more gobal warming.