Mini-Lottery: Maybe a BIT more fairness?

[SarkdenTepes]

This daily lottery is somehow something nice, but to be honest, it's a BIT unfair, when some people already won 40.000 MGP with it, and other never had even the CHANCE on a single 10k or 3,6k prize.

If this continues like that, some people will just get hundredthousands of MGP, while other don't got 10% of this.

So let's pick this apart for the sake of understanding what exactly you want, and how you have given reasonable solutions.

Firstly, you are upset that RNG is being RNG. You have failed to offer a solution to RNG being a part of any given lottery based event, real life or in game. There would be no point in them offering something you have to work for in the Golden Saucer if it was all given to you for free. Check.

It would be one thing, if there would be any other way to get such intense amount of MGP, but somehow the Gold Saucer is really mainly a Casino like this - in the bad way and hell: for Chocobo raising you pretty much need all those MGP.

Again, you want them to give you something they put into the game that you should work towards to keep playing their game, for free, lowering the overall lifetime expectancy of their players interest in their fluff content. Again, there is no solution provided for this, yet people are doing the content, and earning MGP by doing things provided for them, such as racing, TT farming for cards(which in return can be exchanged for more MGP), GATEs, and mini games(as moot as the MGP win is). People have been spending tons of MGP on gold packs trying to max out their TT deck, yet somehow have had more than enough MGP to get all the rare cards from the RNG based booster pack style packs. Check.

I don't really get, why you implement it like this. You nerfed retainers, so they will not bring people raid stuff, but now, with Gold Saucer, it's back and even worse.

I don't understand how this is a nerf to retainers. If you aren't willing to clear the content, or unable to, why should your retainer? There is no way a level 50 retainer in BCoB gear should be bringing you back a burning auricle, let alone Dreadwyrm gear. People put in weeks, if not months of effort trying to acquire this gear, and you are expecting it to be delivered from the heavens by Yoshi P himself on a silver platter. I am confused what you expected the Gold Saucer to bring you back. You are making it sound like you should be able to acquire the best gear in the game through MGP, that as previously stated, you don't think you are being given enough of, or are not putting enough effort into getting, or just don't have the time to get. In any of those scenarios, it's still not fair to assume you should just be handed everything playing an MMO.

That type of thinking is greedy. It ruins the game for the rest of us when people complain so fervently that the game is too difficult or unfair, when the bigger, unspoken side are perfectly fine with it because they know that "Grinding" is an acceptable, but not always necessary part of the game. Check.

All things, which bring most MGP, are 100% luck based, even the Typhoon Gate, the only one which gives 1600 MGP, is 100% RNG.

I mean, I really would like to understand: why?

Because it is a casino or lottery. It's meant to be tedious and unrewarding 99.9% of the time. If everyone won, there wouldn't be a point to it. Check.

Long story short. These threads keep popping up about how SE isn't handing players that don't want to work for anything, everything. But on the other hand, those of us that are putting loads of effort into working for them are just getting slighted every chance they get because after we put in all the hard work, it gets nerfed or free handouts are given to those that didn't want to invest the time/effort/gil into it. While this isn't necessarily directly directed at MGP itself, the same concept is there. Plus this has barely been out long enough to complain about getting free handouts.

[Aeyis]

Every value is useful for an achievement grinder. Or any MGP grinder worth their salt.

If they don't get a card with 10k they can still get close to best value day to day and keep at it just like everyone else. In the end anyone playing the game properly will average out.

Anyone claiming that is blatantly ignoring the facts.

Working out percentages is also basic math based on what you see and what you know is present but unseen compared to what the prize list figures are.

I have no idea how this is relevant to the discussion.
Which ticket you receive is 100% RNG. There is no math to calculations of ''the odds that this number could be here or there''
because there is absolutely no difference to a number being ''here or there''.

You seem to have misunderstood something tho.
The sums listed dont actually have to be on the ticket.

If do that you know what numbers you cannot achieve on the prize list per line and depending on how many and which unlocked you also can figure out which line has the highest chance of winning the most.

There is no highest chance. As you have absolutely no way to mathematically calculate where the remaining numbers should be. They could be literally anywhere, odds do not factor into this minigame.

Simply put: the odds of any number being at one place, is exactly the same as it being at a different place.

Your math cannot be applied to give a solution to a problem such as this.



Example: you have revealed top left: 1, top right: 3. The other 2 numbers revealed were an 8 and a 9.
Based on that, what would the chance of the top row giving the 10k payout be?

Answer: Tickets arent based off average. Anything that isnt based of average cannot have percentages applied as part of its solution. While technically it can be said that the chance of a 2 appearing in the top middle position would be 1 in 5, or 20% chance; there is no law of average applying here.
Perhaps only 10 out of 1000 tickets have a 2 in this position. Perhaps 900 out of 1000 tickets have a 2 in this position.
As such the solution would be:

-Impossible to calculate with math.


If you want to be fancy then I guess you could try to apply Quantum Dynamics to this, tho. In which case, it would either be a 2 or not, depending on whether that possibility is be a high or a low casuality.
Which would not help you at all since we can't calculate casuality values yet.

[Kirana]

The law of averages ensures that given enough time, you will find just as many winning tickets as everyone else. It's been like a week. We have a TINY sample size. Of course outliers will look extreme now. Wait until everyone has played 100+ times and then ask again how many times they have won 10k. You will see then why your argument is silly OP.

[Kirana]

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Please go take a probability/statistics course before commenting on anything related to it again...

You post is just...wrong...completely.

If you have a line that reads 1 X 2, and you do not know what 'X' is, the probability of it being '3' (or any other number remaining) can be calculated with VERY simple math. You can then find the average winnings that you would get by picking that line. Do this for all lines and pick the one with the highest average. Congratulations, you have used math to improve your winnings on mini cactpot over the course of many games.

[Kirana]

Also, if a 123 combination existed on every ticket (which I can only assume is what OP is asking for). It would be possible to determine where it was every time by uncovering 4 numbers on a grid of 9. It would no longer be a game of chance. Everyone would get 10k every day. That is not the point of the game.

[Aeyis]

Please go take a probability/statistics course before commenting on anything related to it again...

You post is just...wrong...completely.

If you have a line that reads 1 X 2, and you do not know what 'X' is, the probability of it being '3' (or any other number remaining) can be calculated with VERY simple math. You can then find the average winnings that you would get by picking that line. Do this for all lines and pick the one with the highest average. Congratulations, you have used math to improve your winnings on mini cactpot over the course of many games.

Sigh. I tried to explain it properly, sorry if I failed to do so.



You cannot use percentages on this. The probability cannot be calculated because you do not know whether the chance of a number being at location x or y is the same.

I thought my example of the amount of tickets that can contain a 2 at that location being unknown, was rather clear however.
If you cannot understand something that simple, I find it highly ironic you would insult me with:

Please go take a probability/statistics course before commenting on anything related to it again...

You post is just...wrong...completely.

Also, if a 123 combination existed on every ticket (which I can only assume is what OP is asking for). It would be possible to determine where it was every time by uncovering 4 numbers on a grid of 9. It would no longer be a game of chance. Everyone would get 10k every day. That is not the point of the game.

Not what the OP is asking for. It was also not the reason for mentioning that the 123 combination is not on every ticket.



Do you know what statistics is for? For something for which statistics exist. There are no statistics for the mini-cactpot...yet.
Thus statistics cannot be applied to it.
Thus percentages, the staple tool of statistics cannot be applied to it.


Statistics is not a factual real tool of math. As such it cannot be used to provide a solution to anything beforehand.
Only afterwards..but thats off-topic. Whether or not you agree with this, everything above this alinea still applies.

[Aeyis]

If you have a line that reads 1 X 2, and you do not know what 'X' is, the probability of it being '3' (or any other number remaining) can be calculated with VERY simple math.

The first thing they told my class, which was Math at a university level; was that you should always remember that math needs to be appliable to real situations, or it is of no use. Your example assumes that the chance for the number to be at any given position, is the same.
The chance for it to be at bottom left, or bottom right; the same chance.
These tickets are ''premanufactured''.


Honestly tho, I'm not sure what kind of mathematician would try to apply ''chance'' at ARR's RNG.

[Snugglebutt]

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Based on what you said above you neglected a major component to the mathematical equation required from my previous comment, the component being to list the prize range for your example that shows what row totals would net you...of which is an integral part of the calculation itself and plays a huge part in deciding which rows are worth picking over another. You responded to me about what I said so I would assume you would at least try to mathematically prove me wrong but if you go ignoring a such a major factor in the calculations then you may as well have said nothing.

I do not think you understood my point to be honest from before. The specific 10k prize is not what I was talking about, which ticket you get is also not what I was talking about...what I was talking about was basic mathematics to work out which row has the highest probable chance for the largest payout on that ticket whether that is a 10k ticket or not. Basic maths can give you an advantage in it can be worked out through a process of elimination and basic mathematics combined with the knowledge of knowing what row totals offer what prizes in order to work out which lines will net you potentially the highest amount.

Lets say on the top row you uncovered a 1 x 7, left side row you know it is 1 x 4 and lets say you uncovered a 5 elsewhere on the ticket. You will not be able to work out with 100% accuracy what will be in x and you will not be 100% guaranteed a specific prize but you will be able to work out which lines have the highest probability of getting you the highest potential prize based on the listed prize payout row totals shown to you on the right in combination with the calculations of the numbers seen/unseen of the ticket itself on the left. You will be able to eliminate some lines from your choice options based on simple mathematics compared to those prize payouts for some rows and increase the probability of a higher payout for other rows.

Probability and percentages, mathematics used to give you a better chance at gaining a higher payout. Remember it is a lottery, you should never be able to guarantee the top prize on every ticket, aka always getting 10k, if ever you could do so then the lottery would need to be scrapped and rebuilt. Probabilities and percentages can be used to increase your return on the current system but that is the best you are going to get as far as this game goes. Like in life with scratch cards and such which is what this emulates in game, there is top prize winning tickets and non-winning tickets and I see nothing wrong with that. They call it a lottery but it's really nothing more than a scratch card, the big lottery/cactpot is more akin to an actual lottery system than these in game scratch cards are.

[StouterTaru]

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So you basically aren't assuming that all of the different ticket possibilities each have the same chance?

[Kirana]

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Occam's Razor. Until we have a reasonable doubt that they decided to shift the odds of each number around, we should assume the simplest method of each number being equally randomly distributed. Assuming that the numbers are rigged in some way is in the realm of conspiracy theory as far as I'm concerned.

Even if the odds are shifted in some way, they will be shifted the same for everyone. Some will get lucky one day, some will get lucky the next. It will average out over time, so OPs point is null.