Desynthesis Endgame Guide

[Guesswhat]

You had a 71.5% desynth success change, right?...
As people have pointed out on this thread and others, spectacles aren't the best method of getting MCDs anymore. Tools have a much higher yield than specs. For GSM, you could use Artisan's Needles.

I eat a NQ Beacon Broth and it was about 71%+ yeah. As I remember it, just about under half blew up. 40% is being a bit kind I think, but I'm kinda used to the bad RNG from synthin, so, shrug.

And, yeah, I overlooked the Needles. Or maybe that wan't pointed out 5-6 weeks ago when I started planing? Anyway, I found out after I bought all those spectacles ><.

Great guide btw, impressive work!

[Nyalia]

As I remember it, just about under half blew up.

Thank you Desynth is a gamble, especially when going for MCDs. Sometimes you get lucky, sometimes, you don't. My wife and I worked together a week ago to make 144 CRP tokens for 18 chocobotail saws, which took about four hours of pure crafting. We wound up getting 15 MCDs, which is about average. The last time I made those in bulk, I made about 80 for 10 saws, and wound up getting only 1 MCD. It's really a huge gamble, but the only way to get an item that's absolutely required for endgame crafting and endgame gathering. To max out all DoH/DoL classes, it takes 39 MCDs, which is a heck of a lot, given how few desynth classes have access to them and how luck-based they are to get even for the ones who do have access to them.

On the "plus" side, 3.0 will likely render all the Artisan's items obsolete, and we'll have a new desynth-only grind item that's required for all DoH/DoL stuff :P

[Guesswhat]

On the "plus" side, 3.0 will likely render all the Artisan's items obsolete, and we'll have a new desynth-only grind item that's required for all DoH/DoL stuff :P

Are there any hints on what they will do? New BiS items is a given, but I'm thinking more like making the Supra cheaper? Or the BiS main (Lucius or whatever) cheaper, like 10 moonstones instead of 20. Making them obsolete would wreak havoc. SE being the grindmasters as they are we can only wait in fear.

[Nyalia]

Are there any hints on what they will do? New BiS items is a given, but I'm thinking more like making the Supra cheaper? Or the BiS main (Lucius or whatever) cheaper, like 10 moonstones instead of 20. Making them obsolete would wreak havoc. SE being the grindmasters as they are we can only wait in fear.

As far as I know, nothing has been said at all about how 3.0 will affect DoH/DoL classes. My expectation (and again, this is just speculation) is that all classes will experience a level cap increase, and with any increase, I would expect new equipment. I also expect (again, no proof of this) that any future crafter/gatherer "relic" items (such as the AF->Supra->Lucis) will have their own path independent of the items we currently have. SE has done this in other areas, setting content up so that people who are behind can catch up more easily. You didn't need an i110 Gerolt's Masterworks weapon to get an i120 Ironworks weapon. You don't need to clear Ifrit EX to challenge Leviathan/Mog EX. With Zodiac being completely done with 2.5x, I expect that Lucis is also the end of the crafter/gatherer "relic" path. I could be wrong, but I would be very surprised if the 3.0 DoW/DoM relic path required a Zodiac or if the 3.0 DoH/DoL "relic" path required a Lucis.

With i70-i90 Artisan's and Forager's items yielding MCDs, I would expect (again, speculation) the next tier of such equipment to desynth into a new type of Demimateria that we'll need for the next tier of crafter/gatherer "relic" upgrades.

This is all kind of off-topic though. More on-topic, I think it's clear from the 100->110 dSkill upgrade that 3.0 will bring another increase in desynth level. I'm expecting an increase of 110->130 (just going to 120 with 3.0 just doesn't seem like it's enough for the Demon gear and such) to also include an increase in max desynth from 350 to 400. I doubt we'll ever be able to have more than three desynth classes maxed, but they definitely like using round numbers, which is why I think we had the awkwardness of 100 individual max skill and 300 combined max, and why we now have 350 combined max skill. If they did an increase to 120, they may not even increase the combined max, just to keep the numbers round and simple. Regardless, I really don't recommend that people start on a fourth desynth class right now after maxing three. While you can put ~16 points into it, you can't do much with 16, and if the individual cap raises faster than the combined cap, you'll be in an annoying position (unless you buy one of those forgetting books).


/3.0speculation

[Guesswhat]

Any thoughts about daily demimateria exhaustion (less yield the more you desynth pr. day)? I can't think of a single desynth session this hasn't been true. It could be a coincidence, of course. But I could also win the lottery 3 weeks in a row. No one would believe that would be a coincidence. My point is that there is a threshold to what you acknowledge as mere coincidence.

If no one else experience this then I guess I'm either lucky at the start of the session or unlucky at the end. All the time lol (Or SE has a grudge against me :O). The yield seems correct according to this guide at the beginning of the session.

[Nyalia]

Any thoughts about daily demimateria exhaustion (less yield the more you desynth pr. day)? I can't think of a single desynth session this hasn't been true. It could be a coincidence, of course. But I could also win the lottery 3 weeks in a row. No one would believe that would be a coincidence. My point is that there is a threshold to what you acknowledge as mere coincidence.

If no one else experience this then I guess I'm either lucky at the start of the session or unlucky at the end. All the time lol (Or SE has a grudge against me :O). The yield seems correct according to this guide at the beginning of the session.

Logical fallacy. I posted enough about this elsewhere - you're suffering from a logical fallacy known as "Insensitivity to Sample Size." You are expecting less variance from your experiences vs everyone else's, when your personal experiences actually represent a smaller sample than what you're comparing to. Smaller samples have more variance, not less. If someone flips a coin 1,000 times and gets heads ~500 times and tails ~500 times, and then I flip the coin three times and get heads every time, I can claim that the coin has become weighted due to all the flipping, but that's not true. I simply had a run of luck. Plenty of times during the 1,000 flips were there three heads in a row, but it all averaged out over the thousand datapoints. You are also likely expressing some confirmation bias - I'll bet you're only noting instances where this is true and ignoring the times it isn't, or noting a run of bad luck while ignoring the behavior before and after the run.

Last time I was crafting, I HQed items at 70-80% ten times in a row, and then failed to HQ one at 90%. Is that bad luck? No, that's actually good luck, but most people would see that as really unlucky and claim "90% always fails in this game." There's only a 5% chance of HQing items at 75% ten times in a row, whereas there's a 10% chance of failing to HQ one item at 90%.

As I've posted elsewhere, SE has confirmed that they use true random numbers, meaning, their random numbers are 100% independent of each other. There is nothing in the game where the chances change the more you do it. Your chance of getting demimateria from the first desynth is the same as from the last desynth (though your desynth success rate may change if you skill up, use a Tinker's Calm, etc, of course).

There is no time trick for Atma; Atma have a fixed drop rate. There is no trick to getting Alex from FATEs; Alex from FATES have a fixed drop rate. No action you take will affect your chance of getting specific demimateria from desynthing. No action you take will improve the chance of getting an elemental horse horn from an EX primal. No action you take will make a meld more or less likely to succeed than the chance shown. No action you take will make a desynth attempt more or less likely to succeed than the chance shown. There is nothing you can do to affect how likely an NPC is to drop a specific card after a Triple Triad match (the chance is a flat % either based on the NPC you are fighting or the rarity of the card - which is unclear, but it isn't based on your actions).

I find it kinda silly that people complain about SE's RNG being too random, and yet no one wants a weighted RNG that tries to balance out bad luck with good and vice versa. Just think about the implications of such a "random" number generator - you'd have to deliberately fail as much as you can to charge up your success rate before doing anything risky. To maintain the current economy, success chances would have to drop significantly to make up for the ability to game the system, causing gaming the system to be a necessity. That would be super irritating.

If you want to believe that SE is lying when they explained how their RNG works, that's your choice. If want to believe that the RNG specifically gives some people "bad" numbers and others "good" numbers, that's your choice. If you want to believe that the RNG watches your every move and alters the numbers it generates as a result, that's your choice. But, if you choose to believe any of those, you're wrong, objectively speaking.


I really wish logical thinking was taught in school these days along with all the common fallacies.

[Guesswhat]

You may be reading too much into my post, or maybe I'm not being clear...
When you notice patterns in randomness it's more rational to wonder why then just affirm it's randomness.

I said there is a certain threshold to what one acknowledge as "true randomness", not that "true randomness" can't create results with seemingly intelligent input. In other words: I (kinda) asked if the seemingly intelligent input, had intelligent input? I've noticed a pattern in what should be random and ask if other people notice the same thing. I know little to nothing of how SE calculate the outcome, but knowing how they love making people grind, I wouldn't be surprised if it was true. I'll take your word for it though. I acknowledge that I have been unlucky.

[arrie-prime]

Might already be known to some but my little secret on getting bc3's at a crazy cheap price. Maybe not cheap for long.
astrolabe (gsm) takes only 9 aqueous whetstone which on my server drop to 100gil until i buy them up. Also some other mats but on my server looking at 10-20k max for the overall crafts.

[Nyalia]

Might already be known to some but my little secret on getting bc3's at a crazy cheap price. Maybe not cheap for long.
astrolabe (gsm) takes only 9 aqueous whetstone which on my server drop to 100gil until i buy them up. Also some other mats but on my server looking at 10-20k max for the overall crafts.

Yeah, this was the old method, but they quickly shot up to several thousand each, making this non-viable. I guess it's viable again on some servers? If prices stay long enough for a bit, I'll add it to the OP.

[BiBi___]

Hope you guys don't mind me submitting some data.
- getting some BC3 and wolfram(not in screenshot) w/ Armor from current set and last set of EX dungeons.
- leveling ALC through PvP i90 PLD weap (too many wolfmarks to know what to do with)
- Scared to desynth rest of my T5 weapons..... I want to find out IF there's anything besides wootz and rose gold ingot. But I can't imagine anything else being worthwhile as Allagan Leather comes from armor/clothes....



rest of my desynth were just Aetherial Wheels and Summoning Bells,
http://www.twitch.tv/bibi_hk/b/633361222