RNG: How fake is it?

[shintashi]

So you get a craft going, or a materia meld set up, and you are about to hit the button.

You look at your gil and your material supply, and checked the market board and retainers. Your good stuff probably isn't selling for 3 days, maybe 3 weeks, and you know if you miss this hit, you're probably out quite a bit of time and money.

90%. Can you trust it? NQ.
5% meld? well 5x20 is 100, so 25 should probably work, right? LOL. No.

For those of us who haven't been Sleeping with Tyche on our off hours, there's probably something fundamentally fake about RNG used by FF!4.

The numbers they display are so hideously off, and the cycles so unreliable, you just have to ask, is anyone else experiencing this?

[Judge_Xero]

All I can say is that 60% of the time it's working as intended every time. So please look forward to it.

[RichardButte]

I'd say it's confirmation bias, though the RNG DOES seem to cheat its dirty little head off in this game.

I can count the number of times I've HQed an item at 5% HQ chance on one hand, but I cannot count the number of times I've had an item be NQ when the HQ bar is at 95%...

[Tayolynn]

Sometimes I feel that the rarer the item, the bigger the RNG lie gets.

[Black91CRX]

5% meld?

That's a 95% chance it won't ever work. You could technically get screwed an infinite amount of times lol

[shintashi]

i spent a fair number of years doing RPGs dice and programming them alike. 95% is just 95%. it is not 99.999999999999% 95% is just like saying 'you will never roll a natural 20 on a d20". Which, frankly, is the byproduct of an elaborate imagination.

I think if FF14 is playing with the chaos of saying, "well, it's theoretically possible to keep rolling 33 a hundred times..." then they need a self correcting RNG using an iteration to govern a given number of sets.

[Eye_Gore]

5% meld? well 5x20 is 100, so 25 should probably work, right? LOL. No.

People always seem to think that the % is based on 100 tries. Its not, it is a % of that try and that try only.

[Sibyll]

People always seem to think that the % is based on 100 tries. Its not, it is a % of that try and that try only.

I don't see why they don't just make higher melds take more materia of that type and tier rather than continue to use dice rolls. For example, first overmeld would be x2, second overmeld would be x4, third overmeld would be x8, 4th overmeld would be x16.

I mean it's not like RNG materia melding is a deep and engrossing gameplay mechanic, unless you are a masochist. Either that or rework it into a mini-game like crafting so there is some type of element that the player interacts with besides throwing money at the Market Board.

[Kenji1134]

At one point, maybe a month ago, I did a little experiment with Raisins, the lvl 3 Cul recipe.
I did SH2+GS+BT to get it to about 90% HQ chance, and finished the synth. If I got a Good on the BT step, I would use ToT to remove it so I always got the exact same HQ chance.
After 200 Grapes, 180 HQ, 20 NQ. Yeah, came out as exactly 90%.
Of course there were times where I would get an "early NQ", but over 200 iterations, 90% was in fact 90%...

Here is the REAL question. If someone were to repeat this experiment with a 2 star, say Pineapple Juice, and use a modified 100% rotation, resulting in a 85-90% HQ chance, with ToT on every Good and skipping Excellent/Poor for Touches as best as possible, for 200 iterations, would the displayed HQ chance STILL hold true?

(And where would we find such a devout masochist?)

[StouterTaru]

From atma to desynths to melding, I've found the successes on low chance occurrences to come in waves, and changing zones or doing something else for a few minutes can alter being in one of those lucky times or not.