Well said op. Some of the things you said are a little too biased in my opinion, but it's hard to completely separate yourself sometimes. It was a pleasure to read.
Yes. I think Square knows exactly what kind of gamer is going to continue to play, pay, and stay. It is not the hardcore raiders focused on having best in slot on every character. They will move from game to game and return to those games like they do all the time. They are such a small demographic, usually have the loudest and most obnoxious things to say, and are considered by many to be cancerous in any community they participate in.
In my opinion, they would be fools to cater to this crowd. So yes. It is time for Square to shift their priorities away from this part of the consumer base and focus a little more on gamers that are more casual in nature. In turn, the career raiders should probably either pipe down, understand what type of game they are playing, or pick something else.
Personally, I wish they would focus a little less on content progressions and focus a little more on quality of life issues ie better servers / menu organization / breaking the trinity (DCUO did it well with the tank-healer-controller-dps) / rmt problems / etc. I don't want to be stuck on the same raid for a year (not that the frequent updates and expansions would indicate this), but some of these quality of life issues just make some parts of the game seem thrown together.
So I say focus on the casual gamers. Focus on the little things that make your game shine SE. This game is absolutely beautiful and loads of fun to play. There's only a few things stopping it from being a pristine experience. It's already one of the best mmo experiences available right now, and I believe you could make it the best with the right direction (I'm biased too though, been playing a FF game for a long time).
Don't worry about the raiders. They'll come back EVERY single expansion. That really means you're guaranteed a 3-4 month sub from them once a year, imo.