RNG doesn't hate you

[Tharian]

The way that the game handles random numbers tries to be 'truly random' and so.. things don't really work like that in game. It explains why people can get several failures in a row with 95-96% success rate.

Except that you are trying to compare two different elements of the game.

In the first case (Atma) there is a static figure that determines how frequently an Atma can drop in any given FATE. This figure at least for the purposes of this discussion has been defined in the form of there being a 2% chance of the Atma dropping from any given fate, but as far as the actual programming language is concerned it is probably more likely to be defined in a manner of if a given variable is true at the completion of the FATE, then the ATMA is able to drop, what this variable happens to be is something that I couldn't even begin to hazard a guess, in fact the variable is probably different for each and every FATE in the game so as to prevent people from taking advantage of figuring out the variable in one FATE and applying the same variable to all other FATE's.

Additionally compounding the Atma problem is that the chance to gain an Atma does not carry over from one FATE to the next. In otherwords you have exactly the same percentage of a chance to gain an Atma after completing 50 FATES as you did when you first started. Completing more FATE's does not increase your odds of getting an Atma in the least bit. Doesn't hurt those odds either though.

In the second case you are comparing the Atma grind to a High Quality Synthesis Attempt. Problem here is that they are nothing alike. And unless you get 100% on the High Quality Bar, you will ALWAYS, ALWAYS have a chance to fail getting a High Quality Item, no matter how close you are to that 100%. There is a reason 100% is known as the perfect percentile.

You are completely and utterly dead wrong. This weekend I made a thread when I was at 1140 fates, starting my atma quest at around 300. At the time that was 840, but I got up to 1200 fates by the end of today. I'm at 900 fates and only have two atma. Neither of those were received this month.

You actually counted how many FATE's you had participated in? And you counted them to that high of a number? Do you have a life?

That's great and all but how about we leave luck to the casinos of Las Vegas and focus on challenge and skill on our video games?

That statement proves that you have never been to a Casino. Gambling has absolutely nothing to do with luck (unless you are using a Slot Machine or other purely mechanical method of gambling) and has everything to do with skill in the modern day and age. Even games involving dice can be largely skill based depending on the individual practicing the game. There are several people out there who can actually control what number a die will land on to some extent. And let's not even get started on Professional Poker and the amount of that game that is skill as opposed to luck (and I am not even talking about card counting here).

[KarmaCha]

Seriously people, get your soldiery weapon and stop torturing yourselves over a shiny. If you recognize that the atma system is broken (and if you do, boy you're gonna love spirit bonding for that novus!) why do you keep bashing your heads into it? It took me 40 hours to get my atma. 2 weeks of non stop farming to get my animus. Got to Novus and noped my way out of that stupid grind. Save yourself the trouble. They aren't even, and will never be, the best weapons in the game.

[Ampheni]

I disagree with your point that RNG doesn't hate me. But whatever, given up on atma and went for UATs instead, got 3 already so far.

[Kyros]

Pretty sure it was math'd out there that with 2% drop rate and the current playerbase on FFXI: Statistically, there should be around 40 players that will see 1000 fates without a single atma. If the RNG is true like they said, it means that there ARE people looking at this numbers out there.

See, this is the problem. Devs and RNG advocates only look at the macroscale effect of RNG. A true RNG has this effect where individuals can be subject to "extreme outliers". From a macroscale, looking at 1000 misses out of 1000000000000 is a very tiny number, but when those are subjected to a single individual, well, you get a shitty player experience. And true RNG allows that. Understanding of the concept or math behind this doesn't really make anyone feel better. You could be Erdős himself and you'll still call bullshit if you have that happen to you.

Is it the devs fault? Probably. The correct choice would have been to either subject the quest to something that is not 100% true RNG, or implement a RNG monitoring system to remove outliers (Smart RNG, basically). In the end, smart RNG doesnt affect % if you do it properly (Remove both good and bad outliers), and has the added benefit of making players happy.

In the end we get back to the same thing: Atma was lazy and poorly implemented, and the devs are trying to shift the blame to their "true RNG" system instead of realizing that its their fault True RNG is giving players the shaft.

[ariaandkia]

The odds of you rolling 20 1s in a row is 1 in 104,857,600,000,000,000,000,000,000.

Doesn't stop it from happening, lol.

What is the chance of me rolling a 1 on a 100 sided dice (1% chance to fail) OVER 10000 times in a row? Because the chances of that must be astronomically low, lol.


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Also, I'm going to have two children. One will be named RNG. The other will be named 'you'. I will train 'RNG' to hate 'you'.

[Krr]

Taking a random semi-high number given what we've seen in press releases regarding FFXIV, let's assume the active playerbase consists of around 500,000 people, being cautiously low and not having real numbers on hand. If the chance of something happening is 0.0041%, then on average, the 'statistical anomaly' will occur to 2,050 people, which is much more than the number of people I have seen posting on General Discussion.

I would go so far as to speculate that there are far less "The Atma RNG is garbage!" posters than there are people who are being screwed by RNG.

When on average, enough people to fill a small town are being shit on by your game design, you should probably consider reworking it.

[zeopower6]

snip

But wouldn't they use the same sort of algorithms to roll for the chance of a success/failure when the percentage is below 100%? I figure that each FATE/synth that is 99% and below/etc. is treated as an individual event and there's always a chance of 'failure' and that doing more synths or FATEs or whatever don't really make your chances any better.

I mentioned them because they are both in-game activities that usually have people cursing RNGesus.

You actually counted how many FATE's you had participated in? And you counted them to that high of a number? Do you have a life?

That was a bit uncalled for. There is an in-game counter since there is an achievement for 3000 FATEs. You just need to check that every so often to know where you are at FATE-wise and since most people usually don't get to that achievement, it's an easy way to figure out how many FATEs you have done.

[Duelle]

Pretty sure it was math'd out there that with 2% drop rate and the current playerbase on FFXI: Statistically, there should be around 40 players that will see 1000 fates without a single atma. If the RNG is true like they said, it means that there ARE people looking at this numbers out there.

See, this is the problem. Devs and RNG advocates only look at the macroscale effect of RNG. A true RNG has this effect where individuals can be subject to "extreme outliers". From a macroscale, looking at 1000 misses out of 1000000000000 is a very tiny number, but when those are subjected to a single individual, well, you get a shitty player experience. And true RNG allows that. Understanding of the concept or math behind this doesn't really make anyone feel better. You could be Erdős himself and you'll still call bullshit if you have that happen to you.

Is it the devs fault? Probably. The correct choice would have been to either subject the quest to something that is not 100% true RNG, or implement a RNG monitoring system to remove outliers (Smart RNG, basically). In the end, smart RNG doesnt affect % if you do it properly (Remove both good and bad outliers), and has the added benefit of making players happy.

In the end we get back to the same thing: Atma was lazy and poorly implemented, and the devs are trying to shift the blame to their "true RNG" system instead of realizing that its their fault True RNG is giving players the shaft.

[swordrain]

You actually counted how many FATE's you had participated in? And you counted them to that high of a number? Do you have a life?

I just checked my achievement progress. I had just earned 300 fates when I started. Now I am at 1200 as of today, and only have two atmas. I've completely ignored almost every other facet of the game, except for dailies, and even those I had been forgetting most of the time for a very long while. All I do is login, dailies, fates. 4-8 hours of play almost every single day for months. I'm just a creature of habit, the same kind of habit I had before where I ran dungeons over and over and over to get so many classes to level 50. It's just how I function.

Swordrain. Eek. Harassment is a bannable offense, even on these forums.

If this quest is causing you that much turmoil in your personal life that it's effecting your attitude and causing you to snap at people, you need to prioritize your time in this game. The glow is not worth it.

He called me a liar, sorry its hard to not get very angry after everything I've been through on this, only to be called a liar about it.

[Garlyle]

If your reasoning is so great, and 1000 fates and 2 atmas is so impossible, explain why I'm at 900 and only have two?

If it's a 1/100,000 chance, keep in mind, there are 2+ million players. Statistical anomalies do happen.

Also, I'm sorry, but you need to calm down. As someone who started playing MMORPGs in the day when there were items with 1/10000 drop rates from mobs that spawned only once every 6+ hours (nevermind the times when you didn't find them) - I'm quite familiar with the frustration. It's unfortunate you've had this result, but you still need to calm yourself down.