There are way too many ludicrous claims rolling around these forums. Let's take Atma drops for example, as they seem to be causing the most grief.

Let's assume the drop rate of an atma is 2%, because I think as a community this is a pretty conservative guess (I would personally put them at 3~5%.)


Case One: I DID 100 FATES TO GET MY ATMA! UGH WHY DID THIS TAKE SO LONG?

Congratulations, you're an unlucky person. The chances of you not seeing an atma for the first 99 fates is approximately 14%. While this number isn't astonishingly low, it's reasonable to believe that this could happen to someone, and probably does from time to time.

Case two: I DID 250 FATES TO GET MY ATMA! UGH IT TOOK ME LIKE TWO WHOLE WEEKS TO SEE ONE ATMA.

Congratulations, you're a very unlucky person. Assuming our drop rate is 2%, the chances of you not seeing an atma for the first 249 fates is approximately 0.6%.

Case three: I DID 500 FATES TO GET MY FIRST ATMA. I AM QUITTING THIS GAME.

I don't even know what to say here. You're a complete statistical improbability. The chances of not seeing an atma for 500 fates is approximately 0.0041%. I do suppose, there is maybe one or two incredibly unlucky people in all of Eorzea who have experienced this. But dozens daily on the forums?

Case four: I ONLY HAVE TWO ATMAS AFTER 1000 FATES. (INSERT WILD CLAIM ABOUT WHAT SHOULD BE DONE HERE).

Please, go buy a lottery ticket. The odds of this happening, you not seeing an atma for the first 499 fates, and then not seeing another atma for another 499 fates is 0.00000018%. Compare this to the probability of having other very unfortunate things happen in an average person's lifespan (according to CBC):

Chances of being killed in a terrorist attack while on vacation:
0.00015%

Death by a flesh eating disease in a normal life span:
0.0001%

Be killed by lightning:
0.0017%

So please, the next time 50 of you are going to claim that you've done thousands of fates and haven't seen any atmas...



Oh, and if that isn't enough, the developer team basically made a whole forum post and streamed 14 hours of straight atma farming to send you a message.