RNG doesn't hate you

[ariaandkia]

"Probability of consecutive events" is literally that - the probability that things will happen in a specific order. The events still have no bearing on the outcome of each other, and so your chances for each event are still the same. Your math is not so much wrong as it is misleading; probability does not dictate outcome.

This is so true.

====

Each time you beat a fate, it's the same dice roll for an atma. They're independent events that happen one after another with a set percentage. This probability very much does apply and doesn't "dictate" outcome but is a statistical representation of what will happen.

reality_check doesn't understand 'randomness.'

Also, if your luck is so bad that you are getting the worst of it, why would you buy a lottery ticket?

Ok, as I mentioned elsewhere, I have extremely bad luck.

1% chance of failure in a game, I failed over 10000 times. (Literally over 10000 because it was 1000 per attempt and I spent over 10m (Which, in that game, at the time, was a high tier player's earnings for a year.)

Once, just to prove how bad my luck was to my DM (dungeon master), I, without forcing a roll, rolled a 1 (worst possible result in this case) on a 20 sided dice 20 times in a row.
I say without forcing because it isn't hard to force the dice to roll a specific number. I don't do it because it is considered cheating.

I managed to get strangled until I was essentially dead (Brain was still alive, thankfully). I was hit by several cars, had several close encounters where I only survived because I dodged because I saw myself getting hit (look up LaPlace's Demon Theory if you want to understand a bit about how that works (Note: Just because people have proved that it isn't possible in the way it was written doesn't mean a derivative won't work)). I've fallen off a cliff (to be fair, I realized it was going to happen, I just couldn't stop it from happening so I was able to prepare for the fall slightly), been thrown out of a car on the highway, been poisoned more times than I can count, breathed in acidic mists, eaten things that should have killed me, etc. My entire life, I've lived with the world trying to kill me over and over again. In fact, I wouldn't be surprised if, tomorrow, while heading to work, I get hit by a car, probably thrown a few feet, and then get sent to the hospital again. Or the morgue. Then after a few hours, I'll be alive and well, almost fully healed, and get irritated by the fact that they need me to sign a bunch of paperwork. Again.

In fact, the fact that I'm alive should be impossible by statistics and 'probability'.

I'm the type of person who if a massive meteor was going to hit the earth, you could guess where it would land by finding out where I am. But I'd probably survive it just out of spite.

That is why I got the nickname "Cockroach" at one point. I refuse to die. >.> It is rumored that aside from my black hole of a stomach, if we had a [censored] war, there would be two survivors: ilydia and actual cockroach. Because you just can't kill them even when you do.

So in all honesty? Your idea of probability is really bad. You are essentially saying that just because it is very unlikely, it can't happen. Well, let me tell you what. Getting 12 ATMA in 14 hours? Also very unlikely. Can it happen? Yes. Will it happen? Unless you are a developer? Probably not.

On a 100 sided dice, what is your chances of rolling a 1 100 times in a row?

That chance is the same as rolling a 100 100 times in a row. Every possibility has the same chance of happening.

===

Also, RNG is misleading. Random Number Generator. It should be PRNG. Pseudo-Random Number Generator.

It isn't random, it is based on an algorithm which means... If you try it under a specific situation, you will always get the same result. And since you can't choose your seed (unlike with things like dice), you have little control over your results aside from brute forcing.

But say you happen to hit a seed group that will ALWAYS produce a failure? You could potentially fail thousands upon thousands of times in a row.

[reality_check]

You are essentially saying that just because it is very unlikely, it can't happen.

No, actually I never said that at all. I'm merely pointing out the math behind all of these people's ludicrous claims.

[Garlyle]

If your reasoning is so great, and 1000 fates and 2 atmas is so impossible, explain why I'm at 900 and only have two?

If it's a 1/100,000 chance, keep in mind, there are 2+ million players. Statistical anomalies do happen.

Also, I'm sorry, but you need to calm down. As someone who started playing MMORPGs in the day when there were items with 1/10000 drop rates from mobs that spawned only once every 6+ hours (nevermind the times when you didn't find them) - I'm quite familiar with the frustration. It's unfortunate you've had this result, but you still need to calm yourself down.

[swordrain]

snip

Okay I'm sorry...its just been really hard for me to accept this. I always do things 100% in everything, and I never surrender or give up on anything, even if it ends in utter failure. But I can't win against this RNG, and there's no way to "fail" either. I've done everything I can for months to downplay how much time and energy I've wasted in this, and I've had seriously depressing bouts of drinking and anger after having long weekends where I got all pumped up and was grinding for 15+ hour marathons, only to receive NOTHING. It's been a huge blow to my pride, my self esteem, and my personal time. Atma has basically given me PTSD for any RNG mechanics at all.

And then to come here, to see someone like the OP say, "that can't happen!" and call people like "me" ludicrous and liars is just so insulting and hurtful.

[Krr]

And then to come here, to see someone like the OP say, "that can't happen!" and call people like "me" ludicrous and liars is just so insulting and hurtful.

Attempting to disprove lived experiences with numbers is the infamous realm of antisocial gamer jackasses. I'm sorry (and I mean it) that you had to put up with it.

Someone call Mulder and Scully bc this person is an X-File. I don't doubt you've found yourself unlucky, but that number is so improbable it is a statistical impossibility. There is no way you experienced something as rare as 100 to the 10 thousandth power. Literally every other anomaly known to man would happen at the same time before that would.

Technically with the number given of "two million players" there would be about 20 people who've experienced the "impossibility" listed in the OP on average.

[KarmaCha]

Technically with the number given of "two million players" there would be about 20 people who've experienced this "impossibility" on average.

Write the number 100 on a piece of paper. Then put 20,000 zeros on the end of that. That would be the probability of failing something with a 1/100 chance 10,000 times in a row. 2 million is nowhere. Nowhere in the realm of possibility for that. But then again, you and I are referencing two different things.

[Garlyle]

I've done everything I can for months to downplay how much time and energy I've wasted in this, and I've had seriously depressing bouts of drinking and anger after having long weekends where I got all pumped up and was grinding for 15+ hour marathons, only to receive NOTHING. It's been a huge blow to my pride, my self esteem, and my personal time. Atma has basically given me PTSD for any RNG mechanics at all

You need to just stop then. Again, I'm with you in that the entire Atma system can be done better - but whether RNG or not, if a video game is ever frustrating you to the point of sending you into an exceptionally emotional or potentially self-damaging state, you need to back out. And possibly seek help.

That's not an insult, I'm saying that out of genuine concern for you. That is not a healthy level of response to any activity, whether a "badly designed game mechanic" or your work environment or your relationship status or anything.

[alimdia]

This is so true.

====




reality_check doesn't understand 'randomness.'

Also, if your luck is so bad that you are getting the worst of it, why would you buy a lottery ticket?

Ok, as I mentioned elsewhere, I have extremely bad luck.

1% chance of failure in a game, I failed over 10000 times. (Literally over 10000 because it was 1000 per attempt and I spent over 10m (Which, in that game, at the time, was a high tier player's earnings for a year.)

Once, just to prove how bad my luck was to my DM (dungeon master), I, without forcing a roll, rolled a 1 (worst possible result in this case) on a 20 sided dice 20 times in a row.
I say without forcing because it isn't hard to force the dice to roll a specific number. I don't do it because it is considered cheating.

I managed to get strangled until I was essentially dead (Brain was still alive, thankfully). I was hit by several cars, had several close encounters where I only survived because I dodged because I saw myself getting hit (look up LaPlace's Demon Theory if you want to understand a bit about how that works (Note: Just because people have proved that it isn't possible in the way it was written doesn't mean a derivative won't work)). I've fallen off a cliff (to be fair, I realized it was going to happen, I just couldn't stop it from happening so I was able to prepare for the fall slightly), been thrown out of a car on the highway, been poisoned more times than I can count, breathed in acidic mists, eaten things that should have killed me, etc. My entire life, I've lived with the world trying to kill me over and over again. In fact, I wouldn't be surprised if, tomorrow, while heading to work, I get hit by a car, probably thrown a few feet, and then get sent to the hospital again. Or the morgue. Then after a few hours, I'll be alive and well, almost fully healed, and get irritated by the fact that they need me to sign a bunch of paperwork. Again.

In fact, the fact that I'm alive should be impossible by statistics and 'probability'.

I'm the type of person who if a massive meteor was going to hit the earth, you could guess where it would land by finding out where I am. But I'd probably survive it just out of spite.

That is why I got the nickname "Cockroach" at one point. I refuse to die. >.> It is rumored that aside from my black hole of a stomach, if we had a [censored] war, there would be two survivors: ilydia and actual cockroach. Because you just can't kill them even when you do.

So in all honesty? Your idea of probability is really bad. You are essentially saying that just because it is very unlikely, it can't happen. Well, let me tell you what. Getting 12 ATMA in 14 hours? Also very unlikely. Can it happen? Yes. Will it happen? Unless you are a developer? Probably not.

On a 100 sided dice, what is your chances of rolling a 1 100 times in a row?

That chance is the same as rolling a 100 100 times in a row. Every possibility has the same chance of happening.

===

Also, RNG is misleading. Random Number Generator. It should be PRNG. Pseudo-Random Number Generator.

It isn't random, it is based on an algorithm which means... If you try it under a specific situation, you will always get the same result. And since you can't choose your seed (unlike with things like dice), you have little control over your results aside from brute forcing.

But say you happen to hit a seed group that will ALWAYS produce a failure? You could potentially fail thousands upon thousands of times in a row.

I think you're watching too much anime

[GalkaBikini]

I think you're watching too much anime

ROFL, I wanted to post this EXACT same thing

[Laraul]

Also, RNG is misleading. Random Number Generator.

Who uses RNG? "The RNG of dying in a plain crash is one seventh the RNG of being hit by lightning." Instead of calling it "RNG" call it what it is, chance or probability. Or in this case Atma drop rate. It's silly to call it RNG. It's a weird abbreviation and in previous Final Fantasy games it was the abbreviation for the RANGER class. Regardless the RNG term is still weird.

When I did my last Atma farm, I found that it always dropped within an hour of entering the zone (or participating in the first FATE in the zone). So I recommend after farming for an hour, try another area or do something else (like a duty) and come back and try again.

If you wanna play with probability get a coin and flip it ten times. See how many times it comes up heads. Then flip it a twenty times. How many times did it comes heads again. Fifty times, a hundred, etc.

Answer: The more times you flip the coin the closer heads/flips will be to .5 (50%).