Quote Originally Posted by reality_check View Post
I have a solid understanding of math, but I would never call myself a mathematician. Please explain how probability of consecutive events happening doesn't apply here.
"Probability of consecutive events" is literally that - the probability that things will happen in a specific order. The events still have no bearing on the outcome of each other, and so your chances for each event are still the same. Your math is not so much wrong as it is misleading; probability does not dictate outcome.