1% drop rates... a thought expriment.

[IgnisFatuus]

is this bit about the bonus for all ponies true? i dont think ive ever seen a titan ex farm group on my server (at least none that didnt self-implode like most titan groups after two wipes).


anyway, farmed levi a lot. took about 50 kills just to drop the weapon for my main class and i had all his other weapons at that point. never seen a mirror, but the mount and rolled a 24 (lost, of course). only other mount drop ive ever seen was nightmare from garuda (won).

[Poringing]

This is really the maths of probabilities in action.

If it is really 1% drop rate: (I doubt it is; should be slightly higher as it was raised in patch 2.25 but still towards the low end)

You need 69 runs to have a 50% chance of ever seeing a mirror (getting it is another story).

If 100 people ran levi ex 100 times each, statistically 37 people would not have seen a mirror.

If 100 people ran levi ex 450 times each, statistically 1 guy would not have seen a mirror (the world's unluckiest guy). Also, one person would have seen the mirror 10+ times, but there is a 25% chance he has no mirror... or 2 mirrors (assuming DF groups)!

A static 8 man will need to run about 765 levi ex to have a 50% chance of getting everyone a mirror (or 1350 runs to raise it to 95% chance).

Finally, for all things probability related, you need infinite runs to guarantee a mirror.

[Welsper59]

is this bit about the bonus for all ponies true? i dont think ive ever seen a titan ex farm group on my server (at least none that didnt self-implode like most titan groups after two wipes).


anyway, farmed levi a lot. took about 50 kills just to drop the weapon for my main class and i had all his other weapons at that point. never seen a mirror, but the mount and rolled a 24 (lost, of course). only other mount drop ive ever seen was nightmare from garuda (won).

It's true, but as usual, idiots are showing their clear indication that... well, they're idiots. SE throws around the idea that there's going to be something new just for people that have some hard to achieve requirement, and people go absolutely bat**** crazy that they're not among this crowd. The bonus could be an immediate ban from the game (for as funny as that'd be), and these exact same people would complain that it's not fair that only certain people would get this bonus and not them.

Honestly though, the bonus is probably going to be something FC/housing related, like some kind of outdoors/indoors trophy to showcase the triumph. If you think about it, the bottomline intent behind things like the Odin/Behemoth/Primal trophies are that they represent an FC's triumph over the raid content. While you can buy most of these things off the market boards, it still doesn't change what they were intended to represent. This means, basically that the person who achieved this feat of acquiring all the raid mounts did so with the FC... makes sense that the bonus be some kind of showcase for everyone to enjoy.