1% drop rates... a thought expriment.

[Hiruke]

I wanted to express in simple math how awful a 1% drop rate is in this game.

Let's use Leviathan EX as an example. Mirror of the Whorl appears to be a 1% drop rate. Certainly I've gotten over 100+ wins and I've only seen one. Ever. Most people seem to think it's a myth. Certainly it's nowhere near as high as 10%, or even say 5%.

To illustrate just how awful 1% are, let's assume that instead of being the random chance that it is, it's an eventual "force pop" (for example, if something was 20% chance of dropping, it would drop on the 5th win if it hadn't already).

So, at 1% drop rate, we wouldn't expect to see a mirror until we'd beaten Levi EX 100 times.

Nice! A mirror drops!

Oh, there are other people...

Now we have a 1/8 chance of winning the lot!

So now we can assume that we'll get it now (lucky!) or... later. Even if it was guaranteed (it won't be), that means it would take between 100 and 800 wins in order to obtain a mirror.

The reality is that unlucky people will NEVER get a mirror. Ever. Unless they can force some people into slavery that are going to pass it to them when it drops, or go with a static where they take turns lotting, in which case maybe they'll get it by 800 wins.

Please contrast this with Turn 7 (Second Coil Turn 2). Sure, it's much more difficult, and you can only complete it once a week, but I imagine you will get the Unidentified Allagan Tomestone from Turn 7 waaay before you ever luck out and get a mirror.

What is the point of this? I could spend 10~ minutes or whatever it is beating Turn 7 each week, where I'll almost definitely get the UAT eventually if I'm in a static, or I could spend literally HUNDREDS of hours farming Levi EX and probably not getting anything? It's just a level 100 weapon, guys. If you want it to be so "rare", lock it behind a harder fight.

And why apply the same 1% drop rate to MOUNTS of all things? SE said there will be something special if you have all the primal horses... Who's the awful person who actually has all of them so far? I've done TONS of EX primals, and I only have 1... I've only even SEEN the mount drop once, EVER. Believe me when I say I'm not amused that I got Enbarr instead of a Mirror of the Whorl. Good game, SE. Good game.

[Codek]

SE has to assume the worst from it's players. Levi has no lockout so a group of decent players can kill Levi about 100 times in roughly 13 hours. If they wanted a mirror for each member, then it would take a good week of farming him for a full days worth each day to accomplish that. None of this seems really practical but it is possible which is the sad part.

Now, since no one in there right mind would do this, SE can assume that maybe a dedicated group would put in those 13 hours of farm across an entire week. This seems a bit more manageable (but still insane from my point of view) of a task and is equivalent to what it would take to get the same reward from farming coil every week (8 weeks vs 8 weeks).

It was just a safety net that they incorporated to make the time commitment match the alternatives of the same gear level. Granted, because it was such a hassle to waste 13 hours a week doing nothing but farming for a mirror, no one actually committed to it (the 13 hours per week vs 1 hour per week argument). This only made the farm process far worse since the chance of a kill is never a sure thing in currently existing parties. This is the only reason I believe they over shot this grind and that the reward is just not worth it.


Since mounts are a luxury, it really doesn't matter how much of a grind is required to get them. It's completely subjective as to if a player will deem it worth it or not.

[Heavy01Mk2]

i got mirror and bow in under 10 wins

[NyneAlexander]

And why apply the same 1% drop rate to MOUNTS of all things? SE said there will be something special if you have all the primal horses... Who's the awful person who actually has all of them so far?

When did they say this? If this is true, thats reeeeeeeal whack. Lets reward lucky RNG. Good game indeed.

i got mirror and bow in under 10 wins

Then there's this guy. Mr. "I'm posting about my lottery luck to infuriate you" WELL GUESS WHAT MR. JERK. IT WORKED. /FIPSTABLE /JUMPSTHROUGHWINDOW

[Heavy01Mk2]

Then there's this guy. Mr. "I'm posting about my lottery luck to infuriate you" WELL GUESS WHAT MR. JERK. IT WORKED. /FIPSTABLE /JUMPSTHROUGHWINDOW

lol do you people believe everything you see? im lying. if you look at my lodestone you see my wave bow is not even upgraded.

[Amnesia]

So, at 1% drop rate, we wouldn't expect to see a mirror until we'd beaten Levi EX 100 times.

No, that's not right.

At a 1% drop rate, you'd have to beat it 69 times before you have a more than 50% chance of getting it. (that's 1-POW(1.0 - 1%, 69) = .5001)
After 100 times, your probability goes up to 63%.

[TeganLaron]

The reality is that unlucky people will NEVER get a mirror. Ever.

Sadly, this is completely true. I was incredibly lucky to see three mirrors in around my first 20-30 kills (losing the roll on all though) making me think maybe the drop rate was not as bad as people have said. Since then, I am probably around 150 kills, maybe more, and haven't even seen another mirror. Now I just don't bother with Leviathan.

Even more worrying is that this doesn't seem to be the lowest rarest drop rate in the game. In those 150+ kills I never once saw the water horse mount. Before the EX specific mounts were released and there was just Nightmare, I saw it just twice. I'm not sure about specific kill numbers there, but I know I did Garuda much more than Levi and that's without even taking Titan and Ifrit into account. Yet just two mounts. Again of course, losing both.

And as OP pointed out, seeing it is only a fraction of the journey. You finally, finally see that Mirror/Mount you've been farming for what feels like an eternity and...you roll a 12. Oh, never mind. Maybe you'll have better luck in another 100 kills time!

[darkstarpoet1]

i would rather run something over and over again and be able to farm it(primals) while trying to get what i want over running it once and being stuck without any content for the next week(coil).

at least one way i am able to play and run the content i want to run and am paying to play.

[SavageWolf]

/shrug, I like it!

[Traek]

lol do you people believe everything you see? im lying. if you look at my lodestone you see my wave bow is not even upgraded.

Funny cause one of our BRDs had this exact thing happen to him. In fact he got Mirror before the bow. So I believed you.

/sigh RNG..