Gathering and probability....

[Strov]

What I got from this thread is that people love fake statistics and not a single one of the complaners posted actuall statistical evidence. I did enjoy the statistical anecdode that this post started on though...very amusing. A statistical class is probably something you need to take if your having a hard time with the RNG.

[TheRac25]

Probability is not an exact science... just sayin'

well its math wich is a language, its still funny all these people that took one course on probability and assume they are dealing with a fair coin toss here

[Alzelia]

The rng is used everywhere in combat, if the rng didn't work, then combat wouldn't work

[Kat_Manx]

Kinda mad at people going "99% does not = 100%", "you are lying about how many times you missed" or "learn math."

I am sure everyone here know exactly how odds work and if you do gather, craft, or meld items you can CLEARLY see they are NOT RIGHT. Probabilities blah blah. Well what's the probability of all of us having a bad probability on a 99% probability? Haha.

Also, yes, it DOES sometimes work in your favor too.

[TheRac25]

Kinda mad at people going "99% does not = 100%", "you are lying about how many times you missed" or "learn math."

I am sure everyone here know exactly how odds work and if you do gather, craft, or meld items you can CLEARLY see they are NOT RIGHT. Probabilities blah blah. Well what's the probability of all of us having a bad probability on a 99% probability? Haha.

they are trying to apply independant event analysis to something that isnt

[TetsuyaHikari]

Everyone who thinks the probabilities are off are f**king idiots. Google "the gamblers fallacy" and learn some statistics.

Ummm... No. The probability is off. I'm sorry, but if I have a success of 93% and I miss 3-4 times in a row, something is definitely wrong there. Us, as players, are not idiots for thinking that. We're the victims here.

I honestly don't know how you can be okay with something like that. It reminds me of some Super Robot Wars games (a tactical RPG) where the enemy will have a success rate of like 7% for hitting your unit while you have 97% and you miss while they hit you. It's bullshit, lol.

Yes, I understand there's a 3% chance of failure, but come on... Do they really need to make it so obvious they're jerking you off?

[Hobo]

1st) RNG's aren't perfectly random.

2nd) Statistics are correct in the long run. Don't bring in your anecdotal evidence. Don't make claims unless you have a statistically significant sample size.

Edit:

People like this make my head hurt:

Ummm... No. The probability is off. I'm sorry, but if I have a success of 93% and I miss 3-4 times in a row, something is definitely wrong there.

IF I HAVE A 7% CHANCE TO MISS... I CAN NEVER MISS!!!....

[Greg]

The probability does, in fact, work properly in this game (I always get 90-92 items with 91% odds when mining 100 times). You notice misses more because every item matters.

[Hobo]

The probability does, in fact, work properly in this game (I always get 90-92 items with 91% odds when mining 100 times). You notice misses more because every item matters.

Exactly... This is the same thing when a poker player tells me how many "Bad beats" they got... It's because people tend to focus on the negative things. They make them seem like the occur way more often than they actually do.

[Alzelia]

Exactly... This is the same thing when a poker player tells me how many "Bad beats" they got... It's because people tend to focus on the negative things. They make them seem like the occur way more often than they actually do.

Human memory has a negativity bias. You'll remember the 3 times in a row you fail at 90%, and forget the 3 times in a row you succeed at 10%. Also people who are like "I failed 3 or 4 times at 93%" are basing their claims off sample sizes of 3 or 4, when in reality, a sample size of hundreds, preferably thousands are needed for statistically significant results.

Edit: the odds that you will fail 3 times at 93%: 1/2,915
Odds you will fail 4 times: 1/41,649
The chance that you would bitch about it: 100%

The fact that you can't remember whether it is 3 or 4 times clearly shows that you're not collecting any valuable evidence. In FFXIV, there are millions and millions of gathering and melding, and crafting events done, so random occurances like this SHOULD occur. The more times the rng is used, the more chances extremely unlikely events have to occur. Out of a million tries, you would expect an event with a 1 in a thousand probability to occur a thousand times.