That's exactly what I'm thinking, too. I tried to match the Circle of Knowing to the Twelve, as well, when the reveal came that they were "the Twelve given human form" or whatever. But at this point it just doesn't work because we don't have Twelve archons. we have, like...not even half that! The only ones I was kind of ehhh about were:
Louisoix - Thaliak for obvious reasons.
Y'shtola - Llymlaen...that's just the vibe I got from her. I didn't get the idea because city state she was in = she must be the patron god of the town, either. She actually felt very...navigator-y.
Yda/Papalymo - The first one that came to my mind was Nald'thal, to be honest...they complimented each other really well and they wouldn't put them in a pair for no reason. However, with the new Elezen kid, Alphinaud (who was also announced to have a twin sister named Alize or something), they may be the real connection to Nald'thal, should they happen to be part of the Circle of Knowing. But we still don't know enough.
Urianger - leaning towards Oschon just because he wanders around and pops up EVERYWHERE. like "urianger what are you doing here this is a hildebrand quest not a grand company quest"
As for Thancred, I have no idea. I would stretch it and say Menphina because he's kind of a womanizer, but...even then, we don't have enough information to know if the Archons can take on the forms of the members of the Twelve that are the opposite gender.
All of these are all pretty much speculation aside from Louisoix, and I'd agree more with your theory of the Archons being more "divinely inspired" desciples of the Twelve than anything else.
EDIT: oh also while i'm on the subject of the twelve and to prevent another random topic from being made, can someone tell me who the lady in this picture is? It made more sense for it to be Kan-E-Senna, considering the GC pictures usually have their leaders on it, but I've also heard it said that that's supposed to be Nophica, and it makes a little bit more sense because the lady in the picture doesn't have horns/is using a bow rather than the Claustrum...is that true? and if so, is that the only picture of the Twelve we have aside from the statues of Nald'thal in Ul'dah?


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