Mass melding statictics. {You can have this}

[Alzelia]

OMG people shut up about the percentages being off. YES I KNOW MY MATH, PROBABLY BETTER THAN YOU. I wrote a VERY long post about this, that is backed up by real math and statistics.

THE PERCENTAGES SE GIVES YOU ARE ACCURATE


http://forum.square-enix.com/ffxiv/t...eed-at-Melding

[Zdenka]

I had 105 perfect tier I HP materia. Made 30 R27 +1 toadskin belts. I sat down in one sitting and melded them all. Double meld 31% chance, triple meld 11% chance, quad meld 5.5% chance. In the end I got 13 doubles, which after I was only able to make one triple meld out of 105 perfect tier I materia.
I have another 500 perfect materia set up and HQ mats rdy for when servers go down.

Sounds like you are going for gamblers crown?

Why use a L27 item?

L41+ items with lowest tier1 materia start at 42.5% meld rate (47.5% if its HQ) for doubles.


Also I went and blew up 17 gloves in a row at 25.5% yesterday, hate all you people that get stuff easy/lucky :3

[Almalexia]

Or he could have simply been sharing his findings. But I wouldnt expect you to understand that notion, what with that condescending tone of yours that I'm fairly certain is unwarranted.

Sharing his findings, you say?

So, out of 50 hats+1 I made 9 double melds. Avarage success rate was 18% when officially it was stated as 27% (Really, SE? Really?! It's not even close mathematical error!). The point of this post is that for the first 25 hats success rate was 36% (with the peak in the middle) and for the second 25 hats success rate was 0%. The only conclusion I can make is that after a few melds success rate lowers drastically.

OP proposed:

1.) The given probability of success for multimelds is misleading. Evidence: 50 attempts
2.) Successful multimelds occur in "runs;" after a winning streak, failure is practically assured.

This post already explained how 1 is problematic, and 2 is a fallacy.

So what did he find, exactly? What do you find persuasive about OP?

[Scy]

Curse you OP! Your good nature and positive intentions has infuriated us all!!! I will now resort to punching babies and making fun of old people until 100% negativity has settled me back into a sense of solace.

[Fievel]

Curse you OP! Your good nature and positive intentions has infuriated us all!!! I will now resort to punching babies and making fun of old people until 100% negativity has settled me back into a sense of solace.

Stupidity is stupidity, his intentions do not matter.

Fact still stands that he lacks understanding of how to even begin testing something like this, and yet still tried to present us with "facts". What are we supposed to do? Thank him for misinformation?

[Scy]

Stupidity is stupidity, his intentions do not matter.

Fact still stands that he lacks understanding of how to even begin testing something like this, and yet still tried to present us with "facts". What are we supposed to do? Thank him for misinformation?

ok ok simmer down happy slacks. put away the teeth. don't thank him, just ignore him. not really sure why people have the need to lay into people. just ignore them and the posts sink to the bottom of the list eventually fading into forum oblivion. pretty simple and effective. you guys know the more you post the longer the thread stays alive...right?

[Fievel]

ok ok simmer down happy slacks. put away the teeth. don't thank him, just ignore him. not really sure why people have the need to lay into people. just ignore them and the posts sink to the bottom of the list eventually fading into forum oblivion. pretty simple and effective. you guys know the more you post the longer the thread stays alive...right?

You realize that by responding to me you're doing exactly what you're telling me not to do, right?

Bravo!

[Molly_Millions]

OMG people shut up about the percentages being off. YES I KNOW MY MATH, PROBABLY BETTER THAN YOU. I wrote a VERY long post about this, that is backed up by real math and statistics.

THE PERCENTAGES SE GIVES YOU ARE ACCURATE


http://forum.square-enix.com/ffxiv/t...eed-at-Melding

Don't go injecting math and significant statistical data into subjective theory crafting now, you'll mess it all up!

[Scy]

You realize that by responding to me you're doing exactly what you're telling me not to do, right?

Bravo!

im not the one with the problem fella. this thread can go either way for all I care. It can sink or stay afloat. you were the one that had a problem with the guy and his post. if i hated this thread and had a need to call the guy stupid then yes, you would be right. Since that is not the case i am not bound by what I said. so keep posting so i can keep replying so this thread stays alive. =)

bravo!!

[Fievel]

im not the one with the problem fella. this thread can go either way for all I care. It can sink or stay afloat. you were the one that had a problem with the guy and his post. if i hated this thread and had a need to call the guy stupid then yes, you would be right. Since that is not the case i am not bound by what I said. so keep posting so i can keep replying so this thread stays alive. =)

bravo!!

lol......k