Ive seen someone win the lottery the first time they tried, that makes your statistics void.


Ive seen someone win the lottery the first time they tried, that makes your statistics void.



Your study made my wallet cry. Excellent stuff though!


I've blown up (actually hade LS mates do the melding/crafting) 40 +1 kite shields going for a triple. Sadly, only like 4 of them doubled with something like a 27% success rate.
55 INT for 105mil...
I bought +62 INT triple melded Rose Gold Circlet for 35mil...
If it makes you feel any better I'm 0/120 on Quad meld (Tier 4) Net: -65mill.
Least you got your hat out of it!


Felt Bracers triple T3 meld for +40 STR. (12/13/15)
20 attempts.
4 Double successes. (+25STR)
0 Triple.
^What I've been doing the last few days.
I really hate the gambling aspect of the materia system but not as much as I hate how materia took over equipment and became the only thing that matters when selecting equipment.
Nerf PLZ!

I know a friend who has been trying to do mind melds to cobalt celeta, and I think they were something like.. 0/130 or something on double melds alone. XD
Far as I know, melding is so fubar. I went like, 1/7 on 27% chance the only time I melded something.


The sample size is too small, and gear/buff/food does not factor into the results at all.

The only thing I use % values for in this game is for setting my expectations accordingly. If the game tells me I've got a 0%-40% chance at success, I'm going to mentally prepare myself to fail and lose whatever materials/gil/etc. If the game however tells me I've got 70%-100% chance, then I'm gonna be mentally psyched for a victory. 40%-70% generally just leaves my expectations in the dark and I've just to blindly bite the bullet at that point.
The % values given should just be taken at face value and used as a guideline for setting your expectations.
I never understand why people try and test this stuff out. Even if you do thousands of tests and conclude that yes, the % is in fact accurate, how exactly does that help anybody? Congrats, you've proved the game isn't lying to me, which, by the way, why would it be? Just accept that what they say is the success chance is the success chance. Knowing that the %s are accurate isn't going to magically change your luck.
For example, a 25% chance at success does not indicate your fourth meld attempt will succeed just cause the odds are "1 in 4" - that 25% success chance applies only to that individual synth and as it's 25% you should probably be anticipating failure all the time.



"Thy life is a river to bear rapture and sorrow
To listen to suffer to entrust until tomorrow
In one fleeting moment, from the land doth life flow
Yet in one fleeting moment for the new leaf doth grow"
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