If SE is taking away my hard work...

[ZakarnRosewood]

RE: OP
ya! how dare they! the gall of these guys at SE trying to level out the econamy. It would have been much better for them to just do a complete Chr wipe... ya! Screw all you people who understand economics and how price ratios work, you dont know nuttin!

GRAAAASSSSS!!!!!!!!

/sarcasm off

[Alhanelem]

you have no logic at all..

all money is reduced.. so you wont have more or less money than before..

a guy who has 100k now has 10 k afterwards...
the only thing that changes is the cosmetic factor, that 99 million seems to be lower than 999 million..


instead of buying an highlevel item for 1 million gil, you will buy it for 100k. npc costs will drop, like the gil rewards for quests and leves also.
got it?

Some people understand that, but even some of those t hat do are freaking out because they think some people will have the gall to not reduce their price that much- as if nobody ever tried to jack prices even without this happening.

[DannyNobuser]

Here is my solution for you buy up materia then put it back on the market when the new game comes out we all win

[moriandrio]

Here is my solution for you buy up materia then put it back on the market when the new game comes out we all win

Then you find out there been several changes to SB/Materia creation and they way less worth then before. It's a huge risk buying up stuff like materia now cause nobody know how everything will work at 2.0

[NoctisUmbra]

Here's my predictions for how the market will behave in the early life of ARR, with my brief reasoning as to why:

Prices will drop rapidly, heading towards 10% of what they are now, for gathered/farmed mats such as ores, branches, ingredients, etc. These are items that make up a large portion of the player market and have well-stabilized prices based on high supply meeting high demand. When the final save happens on Nov. 1st, there will still be tons of such things up in the markets for sale. Thus, when we enter ARR with all that we had on the final save, naturally those items will be placed back on sale... but for how much?

Based on human nature as well as misinformation, there will be people who put these items up for 1.0 prices and people who put them up for 50% or more. However, these won't last very long at all. Not even a day. Due to the large supply of these items, a vast majority of them will be placed for prices largely around 15-20% of 1.0 prices and begin to stabilize... because even the sellers can begin to agree on their greediness and get reluctant to drop a lot at a time. Gotta take advantage of the opportunity after all! Even this won't last long, because all it will take is a bright minority who realize that anything above 10% of the 1.0 price is a larger profit due to the new value of gil, and thus the idea to lower prices will win out over the reluctance to drop prices in a matter of 2-3 days.

That is more or less the obvious phase though. The easy-to-predict part. What's interesting is what follows. Obviously, the supply and the demand for much of these items will change. Let's consider both. Demand. Recipes are remaining more or less the same, and so are crafted gear. Much of what new gear we get are bound to be through new content - and even if there were new recipes, people this early in ARR will still be accustomed to what existed in 1.0. Demand won't change too much from 1.0 in the early days of ARR, but after the first week or so it can be drastically different. Essentially, it'll experience a slow change. Supply on the other hand, is immediately different. Why? New monsters. New locations. New drop rates. New gathering. New crafting. Therefore, although prices will drop down very close to, if not exactly, 10% for these items because we're going into ARR with a full market's worth of supplies. However, once that supply begins to get exhausted, we're faced with 3 scenarios: 2 likely ones and a 3rd, more boring one.

The boring one would be that somehow the difference in supply rate as well as demand ends up being so negligibly small that prices stabilize at a price range that is 10% of the 1.0 price range for the long term. The other more likely scenarios are that the supply/demand is going to change so that either the prices will increase, or drop further. This can be due to it being more difficult to obtain certain items than in 1.0. Easier to obtain them. Less demand for them. More demand for them. Every item will begin to exhibit its own trend.

Conclusion - High supply items that make up most of the player-run market will quickly lower to ~10% of 1.0 prices, but then almost immediately begin to exhibit their own trends of increase/decrease in prices.

As for crafted gear and various other niche markets that aren't so supply-driven, like melded gear, it is very difficult to predict prices. Prices on demand-driven items are always difficult to predict, even without the entire economy suddenly changing. These are items that aren't available in large enough supply as to meet demand, and thus their prices aren't determined by actual cost but rather how much people would be willing to pay to get their hands on them. This is not a tangible factor that one can measure and draw predictions from, but rather something one can only really know at any given time. These markets will be where the heart of futures trading will take place.

While the predictions for supply-driven items are more or less agreed upon, demand-driven items are the ones most commonly brought up when arguing over predictions of prices and the effects of redenomination.

"What will the price of that double melded Obelisk be in ARR?! Definitely not 10% of what it is now! People are too greedy!"

This is where I say the blissfully dismissive words "nobody knows!" These are items for which prices already fluctuate so drastically that who in the right mind could even begin to try to predict how their prices will behave in a brand new game with the entire currency redenominated? How can one begin to argue that these items "won't drop down to 10% of their 1.0 value" when they already fluctuate so much they show decreases like 50% and increases like 100 or 200%. These items have no agreed-upon price tag. Hell, most of them are drastically different in price from one server to another on any given moment.

The big question for these items is: How will the demand change? These are demand-driven items after all. The supply doesn't keep up. Will people want a certain piece of gear as much as they do now come ARR? Will they want it even more?

Conclusion: Demand-driven items will have their prices lowered, because they are based mostly on how much people are willing to pay than how much they cost to make/obtain and people will be a lot less willing to part with their gil when each one is worth 10x what it used to be. However, trying to predict their prices in ARR is an act of foolishness reserved only to those who wish to take risks in futures trading.

[Preypacer]

Some people understand that, but even some of those t hat do are freaking out because they think some people will have the gall to not reduce their price that much- as if nobody ever tried to jack prices even without this happening.

lol... I was thinking the same thing. People have been selling things for ridiculous prices all along - not including the ones who put them at 999,999,999 just so they won't sell. What happens to those people's items who over-price them? Oh yeah... they don't sell. What happens to the people who list the same items at more realistic/reasonable prices? They sell.

This entire thread is (mostly) about people freaking out over a situation that there's not even a solid historical case for. It's all based on conjecture and paranoia over what some people assume others are going to do.

I can't believe it's still going.

[Esk]

OP pointless and boring rant

/em Collects tears,
It's a good idea even if your going to sulk about it..
If you don't understand that no one loses anything as everyone gets the same change, then Im sorry but we cant help you.

[KoujiGeki]

ok but what if some sets it alot higher than it was? people try to undercut it but trying to undercut will just reset it back to the price it was at 1.0?

[ZakarnRosewood]

SOLUTION :

Complete gil wipe. Would that make people happy?

[Shougun]

SOLUTION :

Complete gil wipe. Would that make people happy?

Would have to do items too. Just carry across our levels and keyitems... lol

Be interesting to see the forum response to that.