ARR Gil Cap Reduction

[LemmingKingXXX]

remember, there's a substantial period of time between the closing of 1.0 and the beginning of 2.0, I don't think everyone's even going to remember what the prices used to be

[NoctisUmbra]

Actually, extremely likely. What did you rent do in 2009 when the dollar deflated about half a percent, opposed to increasing the normal 3-5%? It sure as hell didn't go down, if anything, it probably went up. Why? The dollar was worth more then. Greed. Plain and simple. People are greedy and people are impatient. The sellers want to make more and the buyers don't want to wait weeks or months for the market to properly deflate. And when you have 400k, or even in my case, 70k. Paying 200g for a silver ore is nothing. Do you honestly think they're going to cost 20g? Are you that naive? If that's all people are getting for them, no ones going to mine them to sell. Then the supply decreases, and the demand increases as people can't acquire them easily, possibly propelling them OVER the current 200g price temporarily. It may be slightly less than 200g by the end of it but it will never be 20g, unless you're the one selling them.

Greed will always take priority over logic/sense/"what should be". Politics is the obvious example.

While there are undoubtedly more flaws, I'll point out the 2 most prominent ones in your post.

1. You're comparing a half-percent deflation to a digit drop redenomination. You mean to suggest that because prices didn't drop proportionally when the value of a dollar increased by a miniscule value, they won't drop proportionally when the value of gil increases to be 10x as valuable. Do I need to say more, or do you see the extent of this flaw?

2. I never said they'd necessarily drop to exactly 10%. I'm only sure they will drop, and they will drop significantly in general. I'm also pretty sure no item will be worth exactly 10% of what they are now to match. Again, so much more than the redenomination is working towards the value changes in ARR. However, to suggest that while gil becomes 10x as valuable items will barely drop in price, and to place greed as the primary reason.

As for the segment I bolded... it shows a chink in your understanding of this redenomination quite clearly. The value of 20g in 2.0 is the same as 200g now. If they mine to sell them at 200 each now, they won't have any trouble doing it for 20g then. If the price is different from 20g eventually it will be more due to the changes in gathering effecting the rate at which silver or is obtained.

[Ferth]

The cheapest items that people actually buy are probably going to go up in price. Speaking strictly in terms of percentages, those prices can seem to be hyper inflated. But using a 200g item as an example is not even remotely the same as using a 150,000,000 gil item.

And the most important thing that people seem to either choose to ignore or just not think about... is that prices for ultra cheap items fluctuate greatly in relative terms quite separate from changes to the value of the money in circulation. And those prices are pretty much purely dictated by the current supply of an item compared to the current demand for it.

Another very important thing to remember about your 200g silver ore is that the current vendor price for silver ore is 1500g. Following the global redenomination for gil that vendor price will be 150g. Even if the prices for something so cheap weren't going to fluctuate that much it would never exceed the vendor imposed price ceiling of 150g (atleast never very successfully.)

People seem to want to make two different arguments at the same time. The first being that they are somehow losing money in the 2.0 conversion, which just isn't true. When they can't make a case for that argument they jump to the argument that the new economy in 2.0 won't be a straight 1/10th conversion. Which is perfectly true and a valid argument, if anyone was actually arguing that it would be.

Many of us have used examples from the current economy because that is an easy point to relate to. That doesn't mean we believe the new economy will be completely the same, and any argument from that standpoint is weak, whichever side you happen to be arguing for.

So here are two statements that hopefully people can appreciate and understand:

The universal reduction in gil means everyone has the same relative wealth, just in a smaller number.

and

When 2.0 goes live the economies will be brand new and will need time to stabilize. (this statement is completely independent of the redenomination. Even if they were not changing gil at all it would still be true.)

You can then put those two statements together:

In 2.0 the economy will be brand new and will need time to stabilize, but you will still have the same relative wealth going in to this new economy.

[moriandrio]

Prices will need time to stabilize and might be totally different to now cause of all the changes in 2.0 and they will be as high as ppl are willing to pay.

[NoctisUmbra]

The cheapest items that people actually buy are probably going to go up in price. Speaking strictly in terms of percentages, those prices can seem to be hyper inflated. But using a 200g item as an example is not even remotely the same as using a 150,000,000 gil item.

And the most important thing that people seem to either choose to ignore or just not think about... is that prices for ultra cheap items fluctuate greatly in relative terms quite separate from changes to the value of the money in circulation. And those prices are pretty much purely dictated by the current supply of an item compared to the current demand for it.

Another very important thing to remember about your 200g silver ore is that the current vendor price for silver ore is 1500g. Following the global redenomination for gil that vendor price will be 150g. Even if the prices for something so cheap weren't going to fluctuate that much it would never exceed the vendor imposed price ceiling of 150g (atleast never very successfully.)

People seem to want to make two different arguments at the same time. The first being that they are somehow losing money in the 2.0 conversion, which just isn't true. When they can't make a case for that argument they jump to the argument that the new economy in 2.0 won't be a straight 1/10th conversion. Which is perfectly true and a valid argument, if anyone was actually arguing that it would be.

Many of us have used examples from the current economy because that is an easy point to relate to. That doesn't mean we believe the new economy will be completely the same, and any argument from that standpoint is weak, whichever side you happen to be arguing for.

So here are two statements that hopefully people can appreciate and understand:

The universal reduction in gil means everyone has the same relative wealth, just in a smaller number.

and

When 2.0 goes live the economies will be brand new and will need time to stabilize. (this statement is completely independent of the redenomination. Even if they were not changing gil at all it would still be true.)

You can then put those two statements together:

In 2.0 the economy will be brand new and will need time to stabilize, but you will still have the same relative wealth going in to this new economy.

Hit the nail right on the head.

So good to read some smart every once in a while.

[Futan]

There is a reason the housing market crashed here in the U.S. when the economy tanked. The money wasn't there to buy for the asking prices. Even reducing prices wasn't enough. There was simply not enough money to be had (no lending, lost jobs, etc).

It isn't rocket science. If players can't afford ten million dollar weapons because that is all they have or they don't even have that to begin with, nobody will by them.

That's kind of my point. Except for lower priced items, which is all I'm talking about, many people will still be able to afford the 1000g or what have you, which will work to prevent any crash in the economy, while new players who just did 4 Lv1 leves and have 60g to show for it, obviously won't. They will get frustrated and leave. Despite many people apparently thinking otherwise, SE is completely remaking the game to attract more players. Attracting them, then swiftly bending them over with an economy that is fighting against them is not a good way to keep those players.

While there are undoubtedly more flaws, I'll point out the 2 most prominent ones in your post.

1. You're comparing a half-percent deflation to a digit drop redenomination. You mean to suggest that because prices didn't drop proportionally when the value of a dollar increased by a miniscule value, they won't drop proportionally when the value of gil increases to be 10x as valuable. Do I need to say more, or do you see the extent of this flaw?

2. I never said they'd necessarily drop to exactly 10%. I'm only sure they will drop, and they will drop significantly in general. I'm also pretty sure no item will be worth exactly 10% of what they are now to match. Again, so much more than the redenomination is working towards the value changes in ARR. However, to suggest that while gil becomes 10x as valuable items will barely drop in price, and to place greed as the primary reason.

As for the segment I bolded... it shows a chink in your understanding of this redenomination quite clearly. The value of 20g in 2.0 is the same as 200g now. If they mine to sell them at 200 each now, they won't have any trouble doing it for 20g then. If the price is different from 20g eventually it will be more due to the changes in gathering effecting the rate at which silver or is obtained.

1. My point was that in theory in '09, your rent among other things should have gone down about 0.5%. However, in practice, it did not. Just like in theory everything should go down 90%. However, in practice, it will not. And you agreed with that point in #2. And Ferth did as well.

Now if only if you would agree that the lower something costs now, the less likely it will be 1/10th of what it is now. And that literally sums up my argument. My concern is that because of that, it will be discouraging to new players and this will just be A Failure Reborn™. I'm sure we've all lost many friends who've quit MMOs for that very reason.

[Duuude007]

That's kind of my point. Except for lower priced items, which is all I'm talking about, many people will still be able to afford the 1000g or what have you, which will work to prevent any crash in the economy, while new players who just did 4 Lv1 leves and have 60g to show for it, obviously won't. They will get frustrated and leave. Despite many people apparently thinking otherwise, SE is completely remaking the game to attract more players. Attracting them, then swiftly bending them over with an economy that is fighting against them is not a good way to keep those players.

The market was never meant to appeal to the newbies. Thats why quests in the lower levels reward increasingly higher tools and weapons as rewards, and the vendor gear will be 1/10th the price it is now, to appeal to those who haven't found their niche source of income.

Again, this change is not the reason the market will ebb and flow as it has from day one. Sure its something that folks will try to exploit, but the odds are on the house.

[Seig345]

4 level 1 leves, maybe... albeit when the game restarts, I doubt new players are going to gravitate towards the boring repetitive junk, I imagine the game is going to funnel you into the massive number of quests first. Those quests are going to have to be highly uninteresting for someone to just do 1 then decide they need to go shopping instead.

[strallaalaa]

i'm still confused on this. will the game drop to being able to get 999mil to 99mil or will we lose a full decimal each? like if i have only 1million gil to my name does that mean i'ma go down to 100k? or this just effects those with more then 100mil?

[Jinrya-Geki]

lol Noctis your sig, weren't there more retarded things I have ever said to be quoted over that?