Quote Originally Posted by Taika View Post
I agree the system could be simplified somehow but for me it seems there's nothing wrong with the chances. First melds are always 100% and you don't really need anything more than that for any content. AF + GC gear + single melds = pretty decent and cheap gear set for any job.

If you want to go for double (tier III-IV) the chances are usually around 15-25% (those are from what I've personally done, not sure about highest IV+IV). That's really not too bad for that powerful stat increase. You can count the average risks and costs: if you have a 25% chance to succeed, you should be prepared for around 4 tries and not expect to succeed on first try.

I haven't done any extensive testing on melding, but I've done several double melds for myself and some LS mates and I just recently did a triple melded piece for myself. When I started the process I checked that the chance for first meld is 24% and for the second one it's 9,39%. I calculated that approximately every 4th of the double melds would succeed (in the end 15/43 = 34,8% did) and 11th triple meld could succeed (in reality 15th did). The combined success rate should have been around 2,25% so I prepared for 45 tries. I succeeded on my 43th. In the end, a triple melded III+III+IV piece ended up costing me 5,3M which is definitely not too expensive for such a huge upgrade. And no, I'm not super rich, I just don't feel like this game should be throwing amazing gear at me for free either.
I can't really discuss the later part of your post, since numbers are numbers and for every early success theres likely someone who burned twice the gil. Even if the %chances didnt drop to 1/4th of the first meld at the second meld, randomness will happen. But if theres up to 10 less of a stat per materia, then a double meld is basiclly what is currently a single meld (assuming the best materia is +10 instead of +20).

As far as the first point, while that may be all you "need" for the current hardest fights. Thats certainly unlikely to get you into say, Garuda for some LS'es. And certainly not likely via PUG. The AF most people are going pass on is the ones that there is no real quality replacement for. (DRG - Boots for example) Experiences differ, this may be one of those times.

If 5.3 mil was the price to obtain your triple. Perhaps look at the price for the double, and look at the amount of slots you need to double. Then As the X amount of Jobs you'd be asked/needed to take. If you have a static where you are X job only, thats great. If not, you need to be whats needed at the time. Which is even more double melds.

The issue i think is for the amount of stat gain that can theoreticlly be had (+100 stat) And the most likely found max (+60) and any amount among that needs to be taken into account when they make a Bossfight. If the Theoretical Max was (+50 Stat and the likely was more around (+30 or +40 since odds are slightly higher) then i think stat gap, and the amount of better outfitted Jobs the entire playerbase could bring would be in a better spot.

Not to mention with a tighter spread of stats, Even a skilled group who may lack the resources (or luck) for better melds could still pull out a win by the skin of their teeth. Since the High point for top end melds would be a little closer to the AF "Average"

My opinion is a single meld with +9 or +10 Should be a repectable bonus, but up to +20 should be risk. Less risk then 24%, but +20 in a stat should equal some risk.